pugdev

@scottonPoly Definitely not possible by June! There is a not a strong enough opposition party, who would even take control in that short a timeframe?

So Team Scottilicious like any good team has a difference of opinion. Our Risk-Manager and Europe Specialist thinks a regime change in Iran by end of year is likely, and end of June possible, while I don't. My contention is that this only happens if there's a total ground invasion which would take a year at least to build up. He thinks that technological advances and Israeli Mossad competence make it more probable. I point to Vietnam, long civil war in Syria, and the fact that the Islamic Republic permeates almost every aspect of Iranian society by design. Rebel combattants would have a hell of a time getting set up and the Kurds are not eager for another potential US betrayal. I think regime change is possible but almost impossible by June and very unlikely by end of year. Which of us do you think is correct?

FUCK OPERA. FUCK BALLET. LISAN AL'GAIB.

Why are we aping into No Regime Change in Iran predictions? Well, the change has already happened but doesn't fit the rules. The regime changed by aerial assassination from one run by a mean old Mollah-- who nevertheless had a Fatwa against nuclear weapons-- to a younger one whose priority is making sure Iranian Revolutionary Guards have zero constraints, with even less regard for the suffering of the domestic population or fear of retaliating militarily against its enemies. Not quite the regime change America and Israel were hoping for it seems.

@toly @KyleSamani Putin making tons of money since he is the only one able to sell oil and Ukraine/Russia drags on…

@KyleSamani Shale oil boom 🤠

yelling BAM when I throw something in the garbage bin

how life feels after making your first $100 on the internet

@scottonPoly Omg lol, Trump also said he wouldn’t even pick him to lead in press conference a couple days ago, feeling pretty good about this one

In other weird news, someone convinced Pahlavi that Germany was about to help him. He's a nice enough guy, personable, and humble demeanor despite the obvious irony of that. I saw him first hand as he came to my university many years ago. But you can see why I bet against him...

“We must stop the terror. I call upon all nations to do everything they can to stop these terrorist killers. Thank you.... Now, watch this drive.” — George W. Bush, 2002.

@scottonPoly good call @scottonPoly as usual you were right

I did well from .60 to .74 and then 70 to 74 but last one got out in a nick of time. What happened is they clarified that the market doesn't resolve unless there's certainity so hello potential months of ambiguity... that's what dropped the price... "In the case of ambiguity at the time of resolution as to whether Khamenei was removed from power by February 28, this market may remain open until a consensus of credible reporting can determine whether the resolution criteria was met. Polymarket may further clarify the time of resolution as necessary to ensure market integrity." ALWAYS READ RULES CAREFULLY AND LOOK OUT FOR CLARIFICATIONS YO!

War sucks. Did really well to stay outta Iran markets! Many whales lost 100-300k+, no joke. Flipped N Iran leader gone by end of day (28th), and de-risked some Crockett. Solid trades n risk manager working overtime. Should take profits and enjoy the weekend! Pace your degeneracy!

@scottonPoly No trading at 40 now, still seems like a ton of value when all it takes is one speech from Khamenei in upcoming days

@sama Such a dirty low down bitch, Amodei mogs you 10/10, Fucking Palpatine Altman

Tonight, we reached an agreement with the Department of War to deploy our models in their classified network. In all of our interactions, the DoW displayed a deep respect for safety and a desire to partner to achieve the best possible outcome. AI safety and wide distribution of benefits are the core of our mission. Two of our most important safety principles are prohibitions on domestic mass surveillance and human responsibility for the use of force, including for autonomous weapon systems. The DoW agrees with these principles, reflects them in law and policy, and we put them into our agreement. We also will build technical safeguards to ensure our models behave as they should, which the DoW also wanted. We will deploy FDEs to help with our models and to ensure their safety, we will deploy on cloud networks only. We are asking the DoW to offer these same terms to all AI companies, which in our opinion we think everyone should be willing to accept. We have expressed our strong desire to see things de-escalate away from legal and governmental actions and towards reasonable agreements. We remain committed to serve all of humanity as best we can. The world is a complicated, messy, and sometimes dangerous place.

Iveymaxxing on this fine Wednesday afternoon

One of the greatest charts I have ever seen

North America having quite the day today

@scottonPoly So sad that proper identification and body cams are a “non-starter”…big sigh

This is a really solid article on many of the factors influencing a potential shutdown. My intuition is there will be one and so I’m currently a yes on polymarket.com/event/another-…… but I could change my mind at any time and it’s risky! Not financial advice! thehill.com/homenews/senat…

@toly It’s a shame the Milan jump was not built big enough. The girls are limited to 1260s and 1440s when Kokoro has this in the bag. Similarly for the men they were limited to 1980s when Hiroto landed a 2340 at last years x games

Whoa

Grumpy frogs in Japanese art

polymarket traders with their entire portfolios in usdc after avoiding another 20% crypto drawdown (there are no liquidations on polymarket)