Scottilicious

Fun article by Will at The Oracle @polymarketinfo from the @Polymarket folks on some of the factors that influence my predictions. When interviewed I was beat up and mentally scattered from watching news and so on but he made a solid article out of it. news.polymarket.com/p/risk-off

@DNIGabbard Do you think childhood experience being in a cult makes you oblivious to the dangers of following and glorifying conmen?

Donald Trump was overwhelmingly elected by the American people to be our President and Commander in Chief. As our Commander in Chief, he is responsible for determining what is and is not an imminent threat, and whether or not to take action he deems necessary to protect the safety and security of our troops, the American people and our country.  The Office of the Director of National Intelligence is responsible for helping coordinate and integrate all intelligence to provide the President and Commander in Chief with the best information available to inform his decisions.  After carefully reviewing all the information before him, President Trump concluded that the terrorist Islamist regime in Iran posed an imminent threat and he took action based on that conclusion.

Predictfolio just added some pretty cool features!

This talk at Diary of a CEO from @StevenBartlett breaks things down in plain English. There are perhaps more complex matters, like the pervasiveness of the Iranian regime with entities like bonyads etc but it's a good basic primer on the current situation youtube.com/watch?v=xcXfcX…

Well we all have our biases so it's possible, but I do think that in the short term, more belligerent factions of the Iranian regime like the IRGC vs the clerics are going to fill the void and the repression of dissidents will be even more brutal. I'm gonna post a video of a scholar I generally agree with on this stuff, lmk your thoughts.

@scottonPoly Take this for what it's worth because you are a much more accomplished trader than I am, but I think you are letting your anti-Trump bias cloud your assessment of the situation. Mojtaba isn't in control of anything and doesn't matter.

Why are we aping into No Regime Change in Iran predictions? Well, the change has already happened but doesn't fit the rules. The regime changed by aerial assassination from one run by a mean old Mollah-- who nevertheless had a Fatwa against nuclear weapons-- to a younger one whose priority is making sure Iranian Revolutionary Guards have zero constraints, with even less regard for the suffering of the domestic population or fear of retaliating militarily against its enemies. Not quite the regime change America and Israel were hoping for it seems.

@LNSparklin1 Ya this is asinine. Are you an AI bot or something? When such regime potentially has the materials necessary for a dirty bomb, you don’t want the more extreme elements to take over. Stick to coding!

Actually, it is exactly the sort of regime change the US and Israel were hoping for and expecting. When a faltering regime desperately shifts from bad to worse, it allows for a larger, stronger coalition against it, with no punches pulled, hastening its more complete obliteration.

@i5mogger You can't win without making mistakes on occasion. So sure that could be a subject, why not?

@scottonPoly you should talk about your decision to ape into Cornyn at 90c

See you at the Prediction Conference in Las Vegas April 22-24th! predictionmarketsconference.com I'll be discussing why predictions like "No regime change in Iran by end of March" @ 0.75 and "No Zelensky apology" were clearly mispriced and how to use the "news" cycle to your advantage!

@25usdc I think there are some fun aspects to public trading like the competitive drive some people have to compare themselves to others… It would be good if the rankings on various sites allowed you to add anonymous alts to your profile (without compromising them).

Public trading sounds great in theory. In reality it's pretty asymmetrical and creates problems that quietly eat into profits. After thinking about it for a while, I decided to stop trading my account publicly. There are three main reasons for this, and I think more profitable traders should think about them as well: 1) Copy trading bots: transaction-by-transaction copying is annoying and makes it almost impossible to trade in illiquid order books or long shots, because each limit fill pushes the order book up and destroys a lot of EV in the process. At least this one is easy to recognize. 2) Manual copy trading: this one is less recognizable. It can come in the form of manually checking positions on a top trader profile and taking the same trades, or looking at a market and maybe not taking a position you wanted because the other side of the holder list is full of sharp traders. Usually this only becomes apparent when you talk about positions with the other person. This definitely has benefits (for example a friend group having more eyes on the market), but it will still cut into profits when shared so publicly with a wider group. 3) Learning. The space, like most of finance, is pretty closed. There are amazing groups where real alpha is exchanged, but realistically you don't become part of them unless you're already profitable (and even then it's pretty hard). So how do people become profitable in the first place? Either you're naturally good at it, or you learn by watching someone else. Polymarket makes this very easy: you can search for a top trader and study their trades for a few months (maybe AI is already good enough to do some of that for you?). Every profitable trading style is unique, and I realized I don't want people copying mine, since that will cut into my profits long term even if I don't notice it immediately. So what will this Twitter be now? I like posting here. Reaching such a large audience with just 15 posts has been incredible, and there seems to be demand for more content. Obviously I won't post about my PnL anymore. Instead I'll mainly use this account to share my opinions about markets, post statistics I come across while researching the prediction market space, and talk about whatever else I find interesting (feel free to suggest topics). I already have a few things planned for the next few weeks.

@GreekGamblerPM yup

@scottonPoly Will you be a speaker?😳

@ElizLanders @POTUS Deranged senile conmen don't like being called out. Kudos to you for having the gusto to do it!

I asked @POTUS about the FBI reportedly seizing election records in Arizona. He said they must have done that because it was a “rigged” election. I pointed out to him that his own AG said there was not measurable voter fraud to overturn that election

Careful potentially copy trading insiders though. I have a theory that some smart ass insiders will flip if they see enough people copying them. They’ll just pretend to be inside Trading one direction and take the other side to make more money. Never underestimate the evilness of sick fucks like Andrew T

One of the craziest things we've found: Andrew Tate might be insider trading on Polymarket Odds for tweet markets are normally set by accurate market-making bots But two days ago, market odds for Tate tweeting >100 times moved from 18% to 90% At the time of the flip, Andrew had only sent 32 tweets over 4 days, which meant the market was inexplicably giving a 90% chance of him increasing his tweet rate by 2.5x, despite no indication that he was picking up speed (more in replies)

@RichardHanania All he's saying-- awkwardly-- is that billionaires are funding the culture wars.

Graham Platner says that billionaires are responsible for the trans in sports issue: “I was a captain of my high school wrestling team in 2003. I wrestled girls. Nobody cared. There was no uproar. We had girls wrestling in boys wrestling, or vice versa, 20-plus years ago. There was a girl on our high school football team. Nobody cared. I’m sorry—I cannot take it seriously.” What? Twenty years ago his high school had co-ed wrestling, and nobody thought this was strange until billionaires came along? Even if this were true, the question is whether biological males can compete in girls’ sports. He’s talking about women competing with males. What a bizarre answer. Something about this guy just isn’t right. slate.com/news-and-polit…

📷 Kristi Noem out by March 31? 1,623.5 sharesYes 15.4¢ 15.4¢100¢ $250.77 $1,623.51 $1,622.70+$1,371.93 (547.09%) (bought the day I posted her getting berated by Tillis)

@benwfreeman1 Same. There were 2k at .10 some dude swiped while I had finger on button Kristi Noem out by March 31? 1,623.5 sharesYes 15.4¢ 15.4¢100¢ $250.77 $1,623.51 $1,622.70+$1,371.93 (547.09%)

I wish I would have bought more. I bought this after that detailed WSJ article about Noem and Lewandowski’s affair and just how awful she is. I think Noem is gone soon, but Bondi stays

@adamwren How do Jan and Feb 2026 look?

Graham Platner appears to have weathered the storm of oppo against him. But his ActBlue contributions took a significant hit. His campaign’s daily contributions totals dropped on average 60%,and he received 47% fewer contributions overall in the 77 days following the October window compared to the period before.

@yebisfa @haskologlu This is interesting thank you. I sent you a $40 tip so you make back 10% of your losses ;) Please keep me informed on any development that might affect regime change in Iran or the naming of the Supreme Leader thank you.

@haskologlu If Azerbaijan joins the process, there are 25 million Azerbaijani Turks living in Iran, and the necessary ground forces can be supplied from there. It is necessary to carefully follow the decisions of Azerbaijan, which is friendly and allied with Israel. @scottonPoly

Azerbaycan'ın üst düzey yetkilileri İran'a karşılık vermek için hava saldırısı konusunda görüşüyor. Eğer karar çıkarsa Azerbaycan'ın İran'a 'sınırlı' bir karşılık vermesi bekleniyor. İran, Azerbaycan'a saldırmadığını bunun Siyonist rejim tarafından kurgulandığını iddia etmişti. İran şu ana kadar sadece: Türkiye ve Azerbaycan'a yönelik iddiaları yalanladı. Türkiye ise hava sahasına yönelen ve NATO tarafından düşürülen füze sonrası kınama açıklaması yaptı. Bölgenin sakinleşmesi için de taraflarla diplomatik görüşmeler yaptı. Türkiye Dışişleri'nin savaşın başlangıcından şu ana kadar provakasyonlara karşı diplomasiyi iyi yönettiğini düşünüyorum. Bölgedeki provakasyonun yarayacağı tek ülke İsrail'dir. Bunu bilmeyen de yoktur.

@yebisfa what's your profile name on PM?

In other weird news, someone convinced Pahlavi that Germany was about to help him. He's a nice enough guy, personable, and humble demeanor despite the obvious irony of that. I saw him first hand as he came to my university many years ago. But you can see why I bet against him...

@yebisfa I’m sorry, but for security reasons I don’t click Drive files. Is there any way you could just DM me the text, please?

@scottonPoly My impressions about the future of the Iranian regime. drive.google.com/file/d/1Q4MYDy…

@yebisfa I love it. This is what they do in Turkey, Morroco etc and it's respectable no prob with it. However, I'm currently in a more direct country and I want to know what you think would be reasonable minimum amount. Next time I'm in Istanbul we'll do it you're way. For now bear w me.

@scottonPoly I can provide a qualified and honest analysis. You decide whether to support my analysis at the end of your reading.