Scottilicious

Fun article by Will at The Oracle @polymarketinfo from the @Polymarket folks on some of the factors that influence my predictions. When interviewed I was beat up and mentally scattered from watching news and so on but he made a solid article out of it. news.polymarket.com/p/risk-off

@bernardbulletin Who do you think ultimately wins?

A moment of silence for this position. I thought the market was underestimating the chance of Steve Marshall making the Alabama Senate runoff. And I was right! He was close but still missed it. A good lotto though...

Never thought of prediction in these terms but pretty cool!

@XxX_Niki_24_XxX I'm not super familiar with polyfund but from what I can see the founders are not out in the open. To me that's important if I'm putting funds on a platform I want to know who is running it.

@scottonPoly what's the difference between this and already better established Polyfund?

Here is a fun little roundtable we did at the conference a few weeks back that might interest people who want to set up funds or other vehicles like vaults to manage money in prediction markets. Guys from SuperStrat and River Markets are great minds! youtube.com/watch?v=NsnVnq…

@POLYSTARSAPP @Polymarket No idea what I’m looking at (an nft?) but whatever it is it’s kinda badass

Iran Regime fall by March 31 2026 market, on @polymarket Entry in the 0.60–0.80 probability band, with Edge P90, Yield P90, Gravity P99 across the three behavioral axes. The archetype gate for EQUILIBRIUM sits at P70 across the board. These ranks clear it by 20–29 points but are still within the eligible baseline of the archetype. This Star belongs to @scottonPoly polymarket.com/profile/0x000d… opensea.io/item/ethereum/…

@crypto_lili @bryanbehar He hasn’t announced it because he doesn’t have one it’s just another reality grift for him.

@scottonPoly @bryanbehar What? He hasn’t announced his team yet and he’s the only one with grass roots support He’s not maga He’s what we need

I've been LA for over 60 years. I've lived through fires, earthquakes, riots, mudslides, and Donald Sterling owning the Clippers. But the one thing I don't think I could survive-- in fact, I'm sure of it-- is a Spencer Pratt administration. That would be one disaster too many.

@KayeSteinsapir You're spot on. He's by far the worst option of the three, and we have enough incompetent reality tv stars wreaking havoc in USA. Also his supporters can't even recognize that LA is a weak mayor city and a lot of the problems are structural; city council or state driven.

Accurate. I appreciate Spencer for advocating for the Palisades. I genuinely do. But I'm not voting for him as mayor nor are many of my friends in the Palisades. We're fed up with Bass and Raman would be worse. But Spencer Pratt isn't the answer to LA's problems.

@Real_Turley B when pigs fly

Do you think Spencer Pratt has a real chance of winning the Los Angeles Mayor election? A. Yes, absolutely B. No chance

@Lincoln_Osis @markpinc @spencerpratt @NYCMayor @KarenBassLA Cope my ass. Do you realize LA has a weak mayor position n her hands are largely tied by city council? Despite that she's been able to get national and state $ for LA. Have you really researched this beyond a few meme videos? But ya let's put in an incompetent reality grifter.

@scottonPoly @markpinc @spencerpratt @NYCMayor @KarenBassLA This is cope. She is even less qualified and is an abject failure.

The NYT called me out for supporting @spencerpratt (i cant verify since i dont subscribe). I only gave $1k so far but plan to give more. He represents real populism. Talking about real issues - fires, crime, education, housing, govt corruption unlike @NYCMayor @KarenBassLA and @RoKhanna who ignore their constituents by focusing on divisive identity politics. The DSA like all communist regimes wants to get the people angry about false issues to ignore how their terrible governance is destroying lives. SF already experienced a controlled burn with Chesa. LA had an uncontrolled burn. NYC is next.

@Lincoln_Osis @markpinc @spencerpratt @NYCMayor @KarenBassLA She's not great but at least she has experience, and isn't trying to turn the mayor's office into a reality tv grift. This guy is not Caruso champ! He's completely unqualified.

@scottonPoly @markpinc @spencerpratt @NYCMayor @KarenBassLA Sane thing that makes you think a failed Cuban trained communist can

@markpinc @ladidaix @spencerpratt @NYCMayor @KarenBassLA Pro-ice, pro-Trump, bombastic, conspiracy theorist making ridiculous AI videos without a clue about how AI is decimating the main industry in LA, believes in end of world nonsense and crystals, making promises he won't deliver, no plan or experience just bs videos, want more?

@ladidaix @spencerpratt @NYCMayor @KarenBassLA Why?

@goodman_fe74718 @Phantom2Phlyer California has better sense than to vote for a reality TV show grifter . They saw what happened nationally and again don’t want any part of that in Cali thank goodness.

It is sad to see people actually thinking that Steve Hilton can win the governorship, or Spencer Pratt can win the mayoral election in Los Angeles. They don't understand California politics. Let me tell you two sad facts: neither thing can happen. Joseph Stalin once said words to the effect that the people who vote don't determine elections. The people that count the votes determine elections. But there's more than that in California, and Stalin would have been amazed if he had seen how this state has rigged elections. If everyone in the state voted for Hilton, and everyone in LA voted for Pratt, both would still lose. You think I'm exaggerating? Here's how Democrats have rigged the system. In California, every registered voter, alive or dead, legal or illegal, still in district or not, gets a ballot mailed to them. Every single one. In CA, ballot harvesting is legal. Which means the massive Democrat machine sends operatives out to collect those ballots that were sent to people who aren't there, or senile citizens in old folk's homes, or anywhere else they can, and votes them for Democrats. Then, they dump those ballots into the conveniently placed collection boxes that are all around the state, so the scammers don't have to go very far to drop them off. No need to actually pay for postage. Nope. Just drop them off. Then there's the fact that any ballot received within seven days after an election gets counted. If the Democrats need a little push, they just put those pre-postmarked ballots into the post office box, and they get sent to arrive in time to change the election results. The real problem is that there is no low-level Republican effort to rebuild Republican presence from the bottom up. The CA Republican party is a bunch of elite do-nothings who ask for money and then use that money for 'election events' like dinners, flights around everywhere, and pontifications. They're as big a bunch of grifters as Democrats are. They just have less power. So before you all go "Rah Rah!!! We're going to win!!!" Realize that not only is the deck stacked against Republicans, but the order of the cards in the deck are already determined. The winner of the California gubernatorial race will be whichever Democrat gets on the general election ballot. And the winner of the LA Mayor's race will be Karen Bass. Not because the people voted for them. But because it's the Democrat machine that "counts the votes."

@simplenigmazen @Phantom2Phlyer Whatever you ascribe to the Democrats doing to California, Trump is doing 10 times worse to the entire nation so maybe fix your own backyard first.

@scottonPoly @Phantom2Phlyer California used to be a state that people wanted to move to because the beauty and weather. The problem is Democrat leadership for decades has made the state unaffordable for a middle class person or family. SF used to be awesome, but is a former shell of itself. Sucks really.

@GerberKawasaki @RickCarusoLA Spot on. I’ve interviewed a ton of people who would’ve voted for Caruso but wouldn’t vote for grifter Pratt in 10 lifetimes.

@CheatCode0x She's young and intelligent despite her obliviousness to drug addiction. She's super ideological but I think some people thought she'd shed the victim mentality stuff in order to become mayor but instead she personalized it and reaffirmed she can't see the forrest for the trees.

@scottonPoly looking forward it seeing it unfold, why do you think Raman had such high odds early on when polls did not have her as a favorite?

@scottonPoly Definitely respect you as a poli trade, would love to hear your thesis on why no on Spencer Pratt?

@CheatCode0x The big unknown is the effect of social media. Pratt has really good videos. But I think Bass is waiting for him to make it to the second round to unleash on him. She prefers dealing with him than with Raman. She's a fighter and Machiavellian.

@scottonPoly sounds pretty logical to me, and you're right the LA voters base is the hurdle that concerns me the most, more than his spotty past, look at trump who has failed at multiple businesses, if the vote was nationwide i would think pratt wins