Now that the oil and ash have somewhat settled from this week's Ukrainian strikes on Moscow, I want to make a few updates. Earlier I had commented on the quality of Russian air defenses, there is much to unpack. What was surprising was how high some of the Ukrainian drones and missiles flew. Many were flying what appeara to be between 100 and 300 feet. At this altitude radar visibility should have been in the dozens of miles, even in a city with buildings. This leads to my first observation, many of the Russian fire units appear to be unready for the incoming drones. Many of the shots are inly after the drone has passed. Either the operators are untrained (highly likely), the command and control is poor (I have yet to hear radios in the background of fire teams shot videos), or there is next to no early warning. The lack of early warning is of particular interest. Ukraine has spent significant effort targeting Russian air defenses over the past +4 years. Russia may have lost many more radars than we realized or they are intentionally keeping them off to protect them. Very hard to tell at this time, but worth monitoring. The command and control is very hard to accurately assess remotely, but there does seem to be a lack of planning and coordination of air defenses. Numerous videos show Russia air defense teams in odd locations such as low points. Now these are near roads, so it could be a choice for mobile air defense or to make up for a lack of capacity. However, having air defense units at highr elevation would support better early warning by the local air defense if broader early warning is unavailable. It is very hard to separate poor training from poor equipment. The image I attached has become widely viewed. It shows a Russian air defender shoot a man portable air defense (MANPAD). The missile immediately veers off somewhere else. It could be operator error either with poor shot selection or general procedures. It could be faulty systems providing poor feedback. It could be older systems that can't handle saturation well and detected a larger heat source offbore (noted by @TrentTelenko) . The missile that cause the iconic fuel tank discussion was a stray missile where the intended target isn't visible. More images of these failures keep pouring in. Regardless of the reason, there is something fundamentally wrong with Russian air defense. It wasn't just Ukraine's use of overwhelming raids, good route planning, and long term preparations. We may have to wait for the next bug strikes to get more information. We probably won't have to wait long. Image source @Osinttechnical
