Kishore Mandyam

@googlecloud @googlecloud @GoogleCloudTech @GoogleIndia This is going nowhere. I posted, you responded, told me to DM, I did, you said someone would respond. I got an email from someone who hadn't even read the case properly. Then silence again. My projects are at risk. Please fix this.

@nmandyam Hi Kishore, we at @googlecloud are happy to lend a hand. Thanks for bringing this to our attention. Kindly send us a DM so we can address your concerns immediately. Looking forward to your message. - JF

@GoogleCloudTech @GoogleIndia @GoogleCloud_IN GCP Support admitted to unauthorised Gemini API usage and promised credit. But now I am being ghosted (3 weeks!) while automated emails threaten to shut down our projects. Google Cloud case #70858855. Please help.

@googlecloud DM-ed, please help

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Long post: I'm in the thick of multiple (sometimes heated) discussions on Whatsapp groups about Zomato & gig economy workers, and I'm fed up of repeating points, so I'll put all my arguments here. And maybe burn a few bridges in the process... 1. Disclosure: I am an Eternal and Info Edge shareholder, and have been for a few years. It has been a good bet for me, and the things I'm saying are despite having a vested interest in the success of these companies. 2. Why are they speaking up now? It's rare to see Deepinder and Sanjeev Bikhchandani speak with such passion about this issue, despite the fact that the issues that Raghav Chadha is raising are NOT new. We've heard them over the years from other politicians, and from multiple gig economy associations (esp Telangana). Issues are not new, strikes are not new. What is new here is the impact on the stock price that the strike has had, and the political support that the strike has received from Raghav Chadha. The fear that this might blow up into something bigger from a regulatory standpoint is real, and that will have a tangible impact on the bottomline. Eternal/Zomato has already lost a significant amount of market value (12.89% in 3 months, 5.47% in a month) and is at a crazy PE of 1400+, which means that if investors get scared, it can plummet. The stock price is fragile. At that scale, Info Edge's 12.38% stake in Zomato is impacted and can be impacted by this. Bring in regulation and it there's a clear business impact because Zomato operates on fine margins, and tightly controls gig worker and restaurant payouts. Can the BJP say it won't support gig economy workers? Politically, it's a no win situation for Zomato and Info Edge, and they're on their own. And it's their money at stake. Update: it was point out to me, and I agree... correlation is not causation. 3. How much do they pay gig economy workers? Only Eternal can give clear data, but it is true that it's a fine margin. Eternal has granular control over its contribution margins, and exercises multiple levers (increasing average order value, increasing restaurant revenue, reducing delivery payouts) to achieve profitability and increase profits. It's an incredibly well run business. A chart they published in 2024 which explained how they control margins made me choose to invest in them. Two things: 3a. For every anecdote about a delivery worker struggling, Eternal can you tell you stories of success. They probably will. 3b. Averages do not do justice here, neither does the median situation. I'll explain this later. 4. Gig economy workers have very little negotiating power: It's a buyers market. I've said this many times before: Platforms and aggregators are in the business of increasing fragmentation and monetizing aggregation, such that no single player has sufficient individual negotiating power. Delivery workers have no choice but to unionise and strike, and then it's a game of blink (for the lack of a better word). 5. Our country's burgeoning employment problem (and poorly run education system) is at fault here: we're producing poorly skilled and educated masses, and not enough employment opportunities, so people have little choice. Social upliftment is difficult. We're seeing a rise in personal debt used for consumption, not assets. Last year, FMCG company struggled with rural sales, and I'm not sure how much of their sales this year has been front-loaded and how much is demand driven. Income inequality is increasing rapidly. We're largely mirroring South Korea's experience with debt ridden chaebols, and a largely successful startup ecosystem to attract investment in the country, so no one will mess with this (unless you're running gambling and calling it gaming). But I digress...No one is going to escape poverty (not destitution but poverty) by becoming a gig economy worker. But do they have choice? There's enough supply and demand is controlled by a handful of large "employers" in Zomato, Swiggy, Zepto, Uber, Ola, Rapido and the ecommerce aggregators that also do deliveries. 6. Is this employment: Of course, this is not employment. All labour platforms learned this from Uber: delivery workers are not employees. There's no minimum wage, there's no guaranteed social security, there's very little accountability of the type that labour laws provide for. It is labour arbitrage by creating a construct where delivery workers are not employees, they're not "entrepreneurs". It's a halfway house. 7. There's also massive externalisation of cost: vehicles, fuel, safety. Add those costs to the P&L of these companies and they probably won't survive. They know this. Government has actually failed by allowing the halfway house of employment-entrepreneurship as a construct. But government has failed to provide adequate education and employment too, so they can't kill this. Not easy for them either. 8. But we don't want unions: They're not employees so can they even unionise? I don't think so. They have unions and associations, but to be honest, I don't want communism and unionism. I'm a capitalist, but when there's market failure, regulation needs to step in for capitalism to succeed sustainably. At least that's how I see "rational self interest" in objectivism. But I digress again: there appears to be market failure on the supply side, and it is given power imbalance, the complete control that platforms have, and the risk of exploitation (I've published recordings of Uber and Ola drivers a decade ago complaining to the co that because they reduced commissions, they're unable to pay loans and will commit suicide), there needs to be regulation to address this power imbalance in the industry itself. Zomato can give you data on how the average delivery worker fares, or even the median. However, the role of regulation here to ensure that there's a minimum threshold of income such that there isn't exploitation. The real question is: will the platforms be able to survive that, given that, at best, their profitability is on precarious ground? 9. Shouldn't competition solve for this? It should but network effects are already at play, with limited platforms. There is demand side capture with limited players, and with each platform looking to reduce costs, move to profitability, with Zepto looking to list, Swiggy having recently listed, this is now going to be more about maximising wealth for founders and investors. While there isn't cartelisation, and there is competition between them, I'm not sure if there is competition on the supply side. No one is trying to pull delivery workers from the other, is there? Not everyone can pull off a Rapido, and ONDC isn't really working out, is it? 10. Lastly, I usually avoid commenting on people, but something triggered me here: I see Deepinder's tweet about how the delivery business has exposed us to poverty in our cities as deflection, and frankly it reads like AI slop. It just feels artificial. We see poverty every day in our cities, on our roads, and many people employ those who who live in slums, bastis and cramped colonies with illegal construction and poor sanitation. It's not that we haven't used the Delhi metro or local trains in Mumbai. Deepinder isn't even acknowledging the problem that is being raised. It reads like deflection. Sanjeev's comment on Raghav, talking about where he got married and who he got married to is despicable trash talk, and unbecoming of someone like Sanjeev. He's better than that. It's lazy ad-hominem and he's smarter than that. You don't need to be poor to have sympathy for the poor, or try to help them. There needs to be some semblance of humility here, especially when you have so much power. Sure, Raghav is a politician, but politicians have a great sense of what can be a compelling issue for them to raise, but the fact that a politician is raising it shouldn't deflect us from the problem at hand. It's also true that the AAP government was in power in Delhi for 12 years and they didn't do anything substantive for gig economy workers in Delhi. What have they done in Punjab? In one group someone has asked whether there is another business behind getting this issue raised, as in is anyone targeting Zomato... again, that doesn't change the fact that the issue is real, and has been real or raised for over a decade, and there is governance failure, and market failure on the supply side. This needs to be solved, and deflecting is going to just kick the ball down the road. But then I guess that's what will happen here again.

Hot take: A JSON syntax error in an LLM output isn't a formatting bug. It's a hallucination warning. ⚠️ Stop trying to parse "mostly correct" outputs. You are just successfully extracting wrong answers. factal.io/post/stop-tryi…

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