Adwa Defense, Intelligence & Strategic Studies

Happy Ethiopian Patriotic Day!

Despite continuing differences over Sudan, Ethiopia, Somaliland and parts of the Horn of Africa, the June 15 Cairo summit between Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed reaffirmed the durability of one of the region’s most important strategic partnerships. Notably, this was MBZ’s first foreign trip since the Iran war began on February 28, lasting only a few hours but accompanied by a large senior delegation. The visit followed earlier high-level Egyptian visits to the UAE during the conflict, underscoring the intensity of bilateral coordination. The leaders emphasized economic integration, investment, regional security, and coordination following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while Sisi reiterated that Gulf security is inseparable from Egypt’s national security. The summit demonstrated that tactical divergences have not altered the strategic foundations of the Egypt-UAE axis.

#Mogadishu and #Hargeisa exchanged heavily worded statements over Somaliland and Israel engagements. In a sharp diplomatic spat, Somalia issued a strong condemnation of ongoing Israel–Somaliland ties including high-level visits, embassy openings in Jerusalem, and expanded cooperation, branding them illegal violations of its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Somaliland fired back with its own sharp rebuttal, rejecting Mogadishu’s claims outright, reaffirming its independence, and vigorously defending its sovereign right to conduct independent foreign policy.

On June 12, 2026, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard declassified intel confirming U.S. funding for 120+ biolabs across 30+ countries including Ethiopia. The release supports Trump’s EO ending risky gain-of-function research abroad and counters what Gabbard called prior cover-ups on lab scope and COVID-19 origins. Per ODNI, the declassification aligns with 2025 Executive Order: maps labs, pathogens & risks for better biosecurity , Corrects the record: previous officials (incl. Fauci) denied/downplayed them and Addresses real threats: hazardous pathogens (anthrax, plague, Ebola) with weak oversight especially in Ukraine.

In historic state visit, Somaliland President Abdirahman Irro announces his arrival in Israel as the first Somaliland leader. On his visit Irro highlighted a warm welcome from Israeli President Isaac Herzog and milestone after 35 years of Somaliland’s independence and democratic state-building.

Sudan’s crisis is often reduced to a war between SAF and RSF, the rivalry between their two generals and their foreign backers. The deeper challenge is Sudan’s missing center: a functional civilian political structure. Sudan’s future will depend on whether a credible civilian center can emerge and reduce the dominance of military institutions and political Islamist networks over the state. adiss-strategies.org/publications/s…

African Union’s False Dichotomy Trap in Sudan-AU is trapped in its own contradiction in Sudan. Since the 2021 coup, it has kept Sudan suspended under its anti-coup policy while increasingly treating SAF-controlled institutions in Port Sudan as the country’s authority. In effect, the AU condemns the coup while adapting to its outcome, sidelining civilian actors in the process. adiss-strategies.org/publications/a…

TPLF has decided to launch an offensive against Ethiopia in the coming days, And Asmara is behind it.-Getachew Reda Minister and Redwan Hussein in an opinion piece published on Aljazeera.

In a major U.S. shift on Sudan, the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee has advanced the U.S. Engagement in Sudanese Peace Act. The bill would direct the Secretary of State and the U.S. Ambassador to the UN to challenge Sudan’s current representation at the United Nations. Specifically, Section 203 calls for triggering Rule 29 through the UN General Assembly’s Credentials Committee to delegitimize Sudan’s current representatives until the country transitions to a civilian-led or democratically elected government. docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/FA…

In a first meeting since Debretsion Gebremichael’s faction staged a coup against the Tigray Interim Administration (TIRA), AU envoy Olusegun Obasanjo arrived in Mekelle today (June 11, 2026) for his ninth visit. Amid a new TPLF draft law proposing forced conscription + up to 25 years prison for critics of mass mobilization, talks focus on Pretoria implementation and averting renewed war.

Field Marshal Berhanu Jula, ENDF Chief of Staff, at officer graduation ceremony issued a stern warning against the "Tsimdo" (ጽምዶ) alliance between insurgent elements inside Ethiopia and Eritrea. Addressing new officers, he described it as a renewed plot to deny Ethiopia sea access. "Ethiopia’s growing population will not be blocked from a legitimate outlet to the sea. By building a modern military worthy of this great people and nation, we are fulfilling our historic responsibility to reliably safeguard the country's national interests." "Tsimdo" widely viewed as a tactical/military alignment a buffer for Eritrea, arms/smuggling routes and protection for TPLF hardliners, and a joint front against Federal government (including links to insurgents in Amhara region). Ethiopian officials (PM Abiy, Field Marshal Berhanu Jula) call it a dangerous plot to isolate Ethiopia from the sea and destabilize the country.

President Sisi and Tshisekedi discussed cooperation among Nile Basin countries and stressed the importance of respecting international law governing transboundary rivers, according to the Egyptian presidency. Tshisekedi praised Egypt’s consensus-oriented approach and coordination with Egypt. Congo is a full member of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) but has not signed or ratified the CFA along Egypt and Sudan. The signatories are: Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya and Burundi. presidency.eg/en/%D9%82%D8%B…

U.S. Senators Shaheen (D), Risch (R), Coons (D), and Cornyn (R) introduced the PEACE in Sudan Act. The bill requires the Administration to assess within 90 days whether the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) or Rapid Support Forces (RSF) should be designated as terrorist organizations. It targets the war economy, arms flows, foreign fighters, and illegal gold smuggling with new sanctions, asset blocks, and visa bans on perpetrators and their enablers. Additional measures address foreign interference, atrocities, and support for a civilian-led transition. foreign.senate.gov/press/dem/rele…

Ethiopia officially welcomes its first-ever foreign-owned investment bank. The Ethiopian Capital Market Authority has granted a landmark license to United Capital Financial Services PLC. United Capital, a subsidiary of Nigeria's United Capital Group, is authorized to provide investment banking, capital raising, advisory and structured finance services as part of Ethiopia's financial sector reforms.

A durable peace in the region requires civilian rule in Sudan. Ethiopia should engage stakeholders and play active role in facilitating transition to a full civilian governance. adiss-strategies.org/publications/e…

So Much Diplomatic Show-off, So Little Result. Why has the Eritrea-Egypt relationship, despite attracting so much publicity, delivered so little for Eritreans beyond strategic anxiety over Ethiopia? adiss-strategies.org/publications/e…

Frank Garcia was sworn in on June 1, 2026 as Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs @AsstSecStateAF. A 28-year U.S. Navy veteran and former House Intelligence Committee staffer, Garcia brings national security experience rather than traditional diplomatic credentials to the role. He now leads a significantly downsized State Department Africa Bureau a reflection of the Trump administration’s leaner, commercially-focused Africa policy. state.gov/biographies/fr…