Aniket Lohani

This is the most logical take on NIFTY you will read on X. I don't operate on optimism or pessimism, but on logic & rationale. If you are an active investor, trader or do Mutual Fund SIPs, don't skip - Bookmark it if you must. NIFTY IS NOT CROSSING 27K for the next 2-3 years. Everyone is waiting for the US-Iran ceasefire to send Nifty to the moon. They think the geopolitical conflict crashed the market. THAT IS A LIE. The war is just the cover story institutional investors needed to execute a massive, pre-planned sell-off. The real rot is underneath the daily noise, and nobody is looking at it because the headlines are too distracting. Historical patterns tell a lot more than the news cycle ever will. The chart is currently locked in a massive, inescapable Fibonacci grid. Support sits firmly at the 23,000, 22,500, and 21,800 levels. And the ceiling is absolute: 24,250, 24,500, and 24,750 (the 0.618 golden ratio). If the war ends tomorrow, market sentiment will temporarily spike, but it will face brutal rejection at 24,750. For the remainder of 2026, Nifty is destined to oscillate between 22,500 and 24,750. If you are praying for a 26,000+ breakout and a new all-time high, you are trading on hope, not math. Why is the ceiling so hard? Because the Indian market is entering a prolonged, multi-year "Time Correction." Here is the concrete, data-backed evidence of the ticking time bomb: 1. The FII Exodus & The Emerging Market Rotation Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) aren't "spooked" by a sudden war - they have been exiting for months. Throughout 2025 and early 2026, FIIs withdrew over ₹2.20 lakh crore from Indian equities. Why? Because the "India premium" is dead. Valuations are brutally high, and there are no real AI/Auto/EV/Renewable Energy plays here. Raw material availability is constrained, and semi-urban & rural demand has slowed. The smart money has already rotated capital to cheaper markets like China, Taiwan, Korea and Japan. They are leaving through the back door before the fire alarm even goes off. 2. The Cracking Domestic Shield (Retail Exhaustion) For two years, Retail SIPs and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) propped up this market. But the reservoir is running dry. Recent AMFI data shows monthly SIP inflows dipping from their ₹31,000 crore peaks down to ₹29,845 crore. More terrifying is the "SIP Stoppage Ratio," which has spiked to over 75.6%. Retail investors are exhausted, and DIIs are quietly de-growing their risky microfinance portfolios to sit on cash. They cannot hold the glass floor forever. 3. The Unemployment & Earnings Doom Loop The broader midcap and smallcap markets were priced for absolute economic perfection, but earnings are shrinking. The Index underlying EPS (Earnings Per Share) growth has crashed to a miserable 1.4% YoY. Institutional research desks are actively preparing for severe downgrades. You can trace this directly to the streets: the overall unemployment rate is hovering near 5%, but youth unemployment is staggering at roughly 14% to 16%. With the Labour Force Participation Rate barely crossing 55%, true income generation is stalling. When people don't have jobs, consumer spending dies. When spending dies, corporate earnings crash. 4. The Credit Card Economy (The Unseen Debt Trap) If incomes are down, how is the economy still running? On the fumes of unsecured retail debt. Getting a loan today takes exactly three taps on a smartphone, and millions are falling into the trap to maintain their lifestyles. Credit card NPAs (defaults) have surged massively - jumping by 73% in FY22 and another 28% in FY24. We are facing a severe household debt crisis, forcing the RBI to sound the alarm and increase risk weights on unsecured loans. The "growth" you see isn't real wealth; it is just high-interest borrowed money waiting to default. Amateurs trade the news. Systems thinkers track liquidity, debt, and valuations. Nifty will not see massive upside until corporate earnings actually catch up with these bloated valuations. => The Survival Checklist (How to Invest for the Next 4-5 Years) So, how do you survive a half-decade time correction? You stop fighting the flow and adapt your system. Here is your playbook: • Treat SIPs as a 5-Year Reservoir: Do not stop your SIPs, but completely reset your expectations. Stop looking for overnight multi-baggers. This is an accumulation phase, not a harvesting phase. You are buying units at a discount, not for immediate returns. • Eradicate Unsecured Debt: Before you buy another stock, clear your high-interest personal loans and credit card debt. In a sideways, liquidity-drained market, paying off a 36% APR credit card is the highest guaranteed return you will ever get. • Embrace the Range (F&O): If the market is oscillating between 22,500 and 24,750, directional long-term plays will bleed you dry. Exploit the high-volatility days through strategic options trading. Trade the range, not the dream. • Accumulate at Deep Support Only: Do not catch falling knives. Wait for fundamentally strong, high-cash-flow companies to hit those deep Fibonacci support levels (22,500 / 21,800 / 21000) before deploying heavy capital. • Hoard Cash: Cash is an active position. Maintain a 20-30% cash allocation so you have the firepower to buy when institutional panic creates irrational, localised discounts. The market doesn't care about your portfolio. Survive the grind, accumulate the assets, and let the amateurs get shaken out. Disclaimer: What I have analysed might be proven wrong. Nobody can predict anything with 100% accuracy. But I have a high level of confidence in what I wrote because there is more than enough data to support it. And it will need major governance policies and initiatives to change this data into favourable. Without any intervention or policy change, this is how it is. #stocknews #stockmarkettrader #MarketInsights #buildinpublic

Didn't dive that much. Closed at -0.12%. But moved exactly in the same way as analyzed. Even though my analysis was right, it's sad because the option chain is highly disappointing. Plenty of call writing at 24500, 24700 and 25000. On the downside, 24000 has the maximum put writing. So, guess tomorrow the market is going to make a support at 24k, or will operate in a range between 24k to 25k.

It’s going to be a red day today. It’s the worst news since the war started. Iran has rejected all the negotiation and peace deals. Crude has already jumped 7%. Gold, Silver, Copper, Crypto, Dow, all have plunged. I estimate Nifty to open gap down, do a small recovery (where institutions will eat the available liquidity), and then dive further closing in red by at least 1.2%. 24000 will be the most crucial support level.

Tomorrow many will try to scare you but we have checked the levels. Just like a bearish momentum can’t be broken with one good news, similarly a bullish one can’t be broken with one bad news.

@T_Investor_ Bas ab yahi baaki reh gaya tha. With all the things happening, New Zealand feels like the safest country now.

A massive 7.5 magnitude #earthquake hits off Japanese coast, tsunami alert issued. Japanese PM Takaichi urging coastal residents in northeastern Japan to seek higher ground due to tsunami threat. #Japan

@YuvrajShah02 Is it a pit or a ladder? I was looking for an opportunity to post this dialogue somewhere. No better time than the current situation 😅

Still haven't re-entered my crude short position. Reason #1 - The upside risk vs downside reward is not favourable just yet. I am assuming that crude will settle at $75-80 post the war for a short while before gradually coming back down again. However, if the war escalates again, we can see crude going higher (100-120 range). Reason #2 - The technicals aren't favourable either. Crude has just fallen 25% over the last few days. It has factored in a settlement in the war. It has not yet fully factored in a re-escalation. Therefore, I will continue to monitor the situation and see if I get better prices to short at. Until then it's a waiting game.

@Vida_Jay @thevirdas He is definitely not living in ours. He has disrupted the whole global economy and still dancing like it’s a victory.

@AniketFiles @thevirdas Trump doesn’t know which multiverse he lives in

Just woke up. Has trump declared the strait opened, closed, reopened, re closed, partially opened, opening with a closing, closing with an opening, wide open, side open?

@6ytheway @thevirdas If they open and close it in a sequence at the speed of light, would it look closed or open? Remember, this is not a drill. This is real.

@AniketFiles @thevirdas It’s not all that simple or clear-cut. Some of them are closing up, while others are starting to open. Sometimes what looks like a strait turns out to be just a bay.

Public humiliation, online trolling, and bullying using digital means constitute a cybercrime in India, primarily governed by the Information Technology (IT) Act, 2000, and supplemented by the Indian Penal Code (IPC). Section 500 IPC (Criminal Defamation):Punishes anyone who defames another person, including through abusive emails or social media posts. Punishments for these offenses can involve fines up to Rs. 10 lakh and imprisonment ranging from 2 years to 7 years, depending on the severity and whether it is a subsequent conviction.

Meet Priyanka Deshmukh Self identified Radical Bahujan Feminist She's calling parents of Martyr Anshuman Singh Rape abettors Claiming she would have packed them in Blue Drum if she was in place of Smriti Singh Anshuman's father Subedar Ravi Pratap Singh is also an Army Veteran This is the most disgusting post I have seen for a family that's sacrificed so much for the nation Please report this post : x.com/i/status/20457…

@shiladitya4u If I can add one more, pick one good backtested strategy and just stick with it. Even if the win rate is 50% and R:R is a conservative 1:2, your portfolio will still be green.

If you are in the markets for a couple of years or more, and you are still underperforming the broader indices, like - Midcap 150, Smallcap 250, Microcap 250 It's time for you to take a hard look at what you are doing wrong... Steps to improve your performance : 1. Measure - If you can't measure, you can't improve. The Zerodha equity account value in dashboard is good one, but better to have your own spreadsheet. The only thing that matters is portfolio performance, not individual stock performance. 2. Acknowledge - Improvement starts from acknowledging that your performance in not up to the mark !! 3. Define what kind of trader or investor you are ?? Your methodology could be anything - technical, fundamental or techno-funda. Your time horizon could be short, medium or long term. There are 100 ways to make money in markets. You can use growth, value, breakouts etc.. Find a methodology which suits your skills and midset. This is the key to success in markets - you can't copy others & be successful. 4. Have a well-documented process - Irrespective of whatever methodology you follow, your process should cover - entry criteria exit criteria position sizing risk management. 5. Have a trading journal - Each and every transaction needs to be documented in the journal along with the reason why you are making the transaction. This is the best way to learn from your mistakes and improve continuously. Like any other field be in engineering or medicine or sports - success in markets requires passion, time, effort, discipline, perseverance. There's no silver bullets, no shortcuts. Only the good old fashioned grind day in and day out 😀😀 Also, my suggestion is to start with a small capital (lets say 10% of your networth), put the rest in good mutual funds. Once you see you are performing well & you gain confidence, then slowly start moving more capital towards direct equity. At least, that's what I did !! Sorry for the long rant .. Hope it helps !! 🙏🙏

Crude Oil is fire right now. You might burn your hands there. Totally dependent on the war. If something happens in the night, and it jumps up sharply by 6-7%, your GTT Stop loss will trigger but won’t square off your position due to huge gap up. Can result in huge loss depending on your exposure.

@Cryptified_Soul what is your POV on crude oil futures shorting? is there good enough momentum there to NOT miss ?

Selling right now is like losing the actual momentum zone. This is where you get abrupt spikes, big ones. Remember, not all stocks will run in a single day; therefore, they will take turns. So don’t jump around. Enjoy! I am not talking about today but this short time cycle till we reach the levels I have already provided. Don’t lose the momentum zone

Understanding world stock market timings in IST enables Indian investors to anticipate global trends, manage risk, and benefit from market overlaps. Since global markets are interlinked, movements in New York, London, or Tokyo often shape sentiment in Mumbai the next morning. For those trading or investing in international ETFs, global mutual funds, or currency pairs, staying aware of global market hours is not just informative - it’s strategic. Use this global timing guide to plan your trades, monitor international momentum, and align your investment strategy across borders. Now, you know one of the major reasons for volatility between 1:30 PM and 3:00 PM IST in Indian markets. Happy Trading!

FAQ 1. Which global market overlaps most with Indian trading hours? The European markets, particularly the London Stock Exchange, overlap from 1:30 p.m. to   3:30 p.m. IST, creating a two-hour window of shared trading sentiment. 2. When do the U.S. markets open in Indian time? Both the NYSE and NASDAQ open at 7:00 p.m. IST and close at 1:30 a.m. IST. 3. Which market opens first in the world each day? The New Zealand and Australian markets are among the first to open globally, followed by Japan. 4. Why do market timings matter to ETF and global fund investors? Because ETFs that track international indices adjust their NAVs based on the trading sessions of the underlying markets. 5. Do global markets remain open on Indian holidays? Yes. International markets follow their own public holiday schedules. It’s always advisable to check your broker’s holiday trading calendar for confirmation.

Stock markets around the world operate in different time zones - and for active investors, knowing when each market opens and closes can make a big difference. The Indian stock markets (NSE & BSE) open at 9:15 a.m. and close at 3:30 p.m. IST, but when one market shuts, another begins across the globe. For investors trading in international equities, ETFs, or global indices, understanding global trading hours in IST helps track worldwide sentiment and plan entry or exit strategies more effectively.

🚨India just did something only Russia has done before. Here are 9 numbers behind the story nobody covered: → 72 yrs: Homi Bhabha's plan. finally executed → 16 yrs: How late it arrived → ₹7,700 cr: Final cost. started at ₹3,492 cr → 500 MW: Power it generates → 2nd: Our global rank. just India and Russia → 25%: India's share of world thorium reserves → 400 yrs: What those reserves can power → 200+: Indian companies. zero foreign designs → 3: Countries that tried and quit. USA, Germany, UK Thread🧵 (Read Slowly and worth bookmark)

The Nifty 50 Option chain for April expiry suggests the market is unlikely to escape the 24k-25k range soon. The volume of calls sold at 24500, 24700, and 25000 far outweighs the volume of puts sold at those levels. Open OI for puts at 24000 is decent. If open OI is to be trusted, April will be range-bound between 24k-25k (unless the Trump Tweet Index throws some new dynamic).

@YuvrajShah02 The option chain isn't looking good. The volume of calls sold at 24500, 24700, and 25000 far outweighs the volume of puts sold at those levels. If open OI is to be trusted, the market is not escaping the 24k-25k range soon.

Indian markets continuing to hold strong today. Good signs.

@Cryptified_Soul Finally, someone said it. If engagements are necessary for survival, the influencers will say anything to everything - outrageous, clickbait, wrong things to keep the engagement coming. Then, the responsibility to be right, and to teach right is thrown out of the window.

One thing I understood very clearly If the livelihood depends on virality then those influencers can go to any extent and common sense will take a back seat. It’s an addiction and necessity