Asia Decoded

Will Trump tariffs accelerate supply chain diversification? We argue the impact will be quite the opposite. Investments will slow to a crawl amid skyrocketing uncertainty. open.substack.com/pub/asiadecode…

Asia’s growth risks are compounding The Middle East war is tightening energy supplies, worsening terms of trade, and narrowing the policy space to cushion the blow, simultaneously.

Asia Decoded Can India become the world's largest economy?@berthofmanecon responds Want to know more? Watch our podcast on whether India and China could swap positions in the very long run youtu.be/pFLhpd2bN6Q?si…

Can India become the world's largest economy? @CafeEconomics responds Want to know more? Watch our podcast on whether India and China could swap positions in the very long run youtu.be/cr5_mxo_3vw?si…

The ongoing redirection of trade and investment flows triggered by US tariffs and Chinese overcapacity could hollow out traditional manufacturing in the economies caught in between, unless they they move decisively on reforms, warns @Pri_Kishore

The spillover risks for the Asian economies and industries caught in between US tariffs and Chinese overcapacity is large. I write for @ProSyn. project-syndicate.org/magazine/trump…

How will the unfolding energy shock reverberate across Asia? Catch me in conversation with @cna's Elizabeth Neo youtube.com/watch?si=gHmiF…

OECD long-term scenarios suggest India could be the largest economy before the end of this century and China the third largest. @Pri_Kishore speaks with @berthofmanecon and @CafeEconomics about the likelihoods of the outcomes. youtu.be/pFLhpd2bN6Q?si…

This was a really interesting conversation with @Pri_Kishore and @CafeEconomics. I recall the early 1990s when China-India comparisons were in fashion, because the two countries had about equal GDP and GDP per capita. In the next decades, India is likely to make up lost ground.

The main shipping route for Asia’s oil and gas supply is under siege. Is the region’s energy security at risk? Read our take open.substack.com/pub/asiadecode… skr.ma/b9Y6L

Its as important for governments to budget for AI-driven growth as for addressing the distributional risks. Taiwan's consumption growth halved in 2025 from 2024, despite 8.7% GDP growth and cash handouts. For now, AI is an exclusive club with limited wider spillovers.

The new US tariff is 10% for now for the next 150 days. The trade agreements build in higher rates with a few exceptions. Korea, Japan, Taiwan - 15% India - 18% Bangladesh, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Cambodia - 19% Vietnam - 20% Who will pull the plug first?

India cannot compete globally by just signing multiple trade deals; it also needs domestic reforms to make local manufacturing competitive, according to @Pri_Kishore of @AsiaDecoded. youtu.be/ImCDlxvp-Vk?t=… "India comes out as uncompetitive in textile exports, where we have been losing market share. So therein lies the crux of the problem," she tells @govindethiraj. Listen in!

Potentially new tariffs notwithstanding, the Supreme Court ruling revoking the IEEPA tariffs reduces the risk of excessively high, permanent tariffs for Asian economies going forward. asiadecoded.substack.com/p/macro-bite-i… smartkarma.com/insights/updat…

IT stocks have been battered by AI fears. The IT index is down 13%, with stocks like Wipro having fallen 19%. Rahul Jain of @Dolat_Capital believes the sector was due for a valuation correction. youtube.com/watch?v=ImCDlx… “What we've been saying for quite some time is that the real five-year CAGR growth potential for larger IT companies is in the zone of 5%. For that kind of growth, if they were trading at 23–24 times, was it really sustainable?” he tells @govindethiraj. Tune in to listen to the full interview. Also in the podcast: Why the FTAs recently signed by India are just the beginning of much hard work ahead, with @Pri_Kishore, Founder and Principal Economist at @AsiaDecoded, Singapore.

OPINION: India is still far from unlocking its full export potential s.nikkei.com/4rtekBM