Priyanka Kishore

The spillover risks for the Asian economies and industries caught in between US tariffs and Chinese overcapacity is large. I write for @ProSyn. project-syndicate.org/magazine/trump…

Glad to be back at Jawaharlal Nehru University to jointly unveil the Center for Chinese Studies. Congratulations! 🎉 May the Center scale new heights and play a greater role in academic mutual learning, dialogue between civilizations, and youth exchanges between China and India!

Very big deal. @HyunSongShin is a legit rock star of financial and monetary economics. Reminiscent of Raghuram Rajan being named to run the Reserve Bank of India or Stan Fischer to run the Bank of Israel.

Priyanka Kishore explains how US tariffs and Chinese overcapacity are affecting the broader region. project-syndicate.org/magazine/trump…

How will the unfolding energy shock reverberate across Asia? Catch me in conversation with @cna's Elizabeth Neo youtube.com/watch?si=gHmiF…

The ongoing redirection of trade and investment flows triggered by US tariffs and Chinese overcapacity could hollow out traditional manufacturing in the economies caught in between, unless they they move decisively on reforms, warns @Pri_Kishore

Iran is playing a long game: Sharp (if sobering) analysis by @vali_nasr as.ft.com/r/cb37d092-434… via @financialtimes

I find it hard not to have as a central scenario where oil prices will remain very high for a long time, higher than the market current prices. I am no expert on geo-politics and defense technology, but this is what I think I have learned: Fully protecting ships in the strait of Hormuz is basically impossible. Not enough time to stop missiles or drones. There is no reason, whether or not Trump declares that war is over, to think that Iran will not continue for some time to threaten to destroy the ships that try. Why should they stop? The risk will thus remain sufficiently high that most non Iranian ships will not take the risk. Thus, the shortfall of 20 million barrels a day is likely to last for long. The scope for increased supply from elsewhere is very limited in the short run. Perhaps 2 million barrels at the most. The 400 million barrels reserve release can only add 3-4 million barrels or so daily. The short run elasticity of demand for oil is very low, at most -0.1, and probably less. This suggests to me prices closer to 150-200 dollars per barrel (or more, but I hesitate to give higher numbers…) than to the current market price. To repeat. I am no expert (As an economist, I have a bit more sense about the next step, namely what such a price would to the world economy). I would be more than happy to be proven wrong.

Q) M’sia is a net energy exporter… but who in M’sia benefits from higher energy prices? A) Mostly exporters; not necessarily the rakyat or even the govt This is 'cos: 1) M’sia is 3+1 things at once: an oil producer, an oil exporter, an oil importer. And a major gas exporter - it produces (light, high quality) crude oil, mostly offshore in Sabah, Terengganu, S’wak, and exports lots of it. So exporters benefit from higher oil prices. Same for gas exporters, with higher gas prices - ⁠It imports (heavy) crude oil mostly from Saudi, UAE, Africa that M’sian refineries refine, partly for local consumption & partly for export, and capture the spread So when energy prices increase, it is M’sian exporters that benefit 2) Oil is priced *globally*, not domestically (gas mkts are more nuanced). Even the oil M’sia exports, it still sells into the global market, where *global* demand / supply sets prices -> This underscores that being a net energy exporter doesn't insulate you from higher prices. Even with fuel subsidies in place, M’sia imports *refined* oil products such as gasoline, jet fuel, specialized oils for machinery/ mfg etc. In fact, last year, M’sia imported RM92 bil worth of such refined oil products, mainly from SG, S. Korea, India. That’s almost 9% of all goods imports! Higher costs of such refined products directly or indirectly affect M’sian businesses & rakyat 3) But what about govt: doesn’t govt benefit from higher net energy exports? Not necessarily. First, when it comes to oil, M’sia has turned into a net importer in recent years of both crude & refined products. This is a surprise but a fact. So higher oil prices lead to a higher import bill. Second, is whether higher commodity-based revenue is enough to compensate higher fuel subsidy spending. If not, govt will not benefit necessarily from higher prices. We'll crunch the numbers, and more, in our next economic update soon, so pls stay tuned…but for now, suffice to say that headlines such as "a net energy-exporting country benefits from higher energy prices" is simplistic…you have to distinguish btwn refineries, exporters, govt & citizens End/

Repeat what I said yesterday: Oil bypass pipelines buy time, but don't solve the problem. IEA release buys even more time, but doesn't solve it either. Only re-opening the Strait of Hormuz solves it. But now Trump has a few extra days to finish the war before oil forces him.

Today, India elected its first lesbian MP. She was among those who led the struggle for decriminalisation only a few years ago. It's a major moment for the world's largest democracy 🇮🇳

Cabinet approves changes in guidelines on investments from countries sharing land border with India Read more: pib.gov.in/PressReleseDet…

Thailand's Siam Cement halts ethylene plant due to supply restrictions asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/iran…

Vietnam urges people to work from home to save fuel as Iran war disrupts supplies reut.rs/4rGwjEd reut.rs/4rGwjEd

As reported now confirmed, Cabinet approves changes in guidelines on investments from countries sharing land border with India under #PressNote3 Govt says -amendments to unlock greater #FDI inflows from global funds for startups and deep techs - Expeditious decision in 60 days to help companies enter into collaborations to expand manufacturing in India - 60 days decision/ approval timeline to help companies enter into joint ventures to access technologies, and integrate with global supply chains - help manufacturing in #electronic components, #capitalgoods and #solarcells @CNBCTV18Live @CNBCTV18News

Asia Decoded Can India become the world's largest economy?@berthofmanecon responds Want to know more? Watch our podcast on whether India and China could swap positions in the very long run youtu.be/pFLhpd2bN6Q?si…

Can India become the world's largest economy? @CafeEconomics responds Want to know more? Watch our podcast on whether India and China could swap positions in the very long run youtu.be/cr5_mxo_3vw?si…

In light of current geopolitical disruptions to fuel supply and constraints on supply of LPG, Ministry has issued orders to oil refineries for higher LPG production and using such extra production for domestic LPG use. The ministry has prioritised domestic LPG supply to households and introduced 25 day inter- booking period to avoid hoarding/black marketing. Non domestic supplies from imported LPG is being prioritised to essential non domestic sectors such as Hospitals and Educational institutions. For LPG supply to other non-domestic sectors, a committee of three EDs of OMCs have been constituted to review the representations for LPG supply to restaurants/hotels/other industries. @HardeepSPuri @Secretary_MoPNG @IndianOilcl @BPCLimited @HPCL