ANU CAMA

📊The CAMA Shadow RBA Board recommends lifting the cash rate to 4.10% in March 2026, citing rising inflation risks amid a strong labour market and an uncertain global environment. Read more: 👇 bit.ly/4lx7TeO #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #InterestRates #EconomicOutlook

Tune in to the EGROW Webinar: Impact of US Tariffs on India & Asian Countries 📅 20 Feb 2026 | 📷 12pm IST | 📷More webinar information: bit.ly/4anL89d @int_mon_econ

📈 Australia’s inflation challenge continues. CPI inflation was 3.8% in Dec 2025, well above the RBA’s 2–3% target, while the labour market remains relatively tight. The CAMA RBA Shadow Board recommends the cash rate rise to 3.85% in Feb 2026. Read more bit.ly/4rpVMli

🚀📄 New CAMA Working Paper | 02/2026 The paper explores the quantitative implications and empirical relevance of behavioral expectations (BE) in DSGE models under equilibrium indeterminacy. 📊🧠 👉Read more: bit.ly/49GPTck @ANUCrawford @KeioGlobal @UniversityKorea

CAMA WP 01/2026 📄 CAMA has released the first WP of 2026🎉 The paper examines how human capital 🎓 shapes long-run energy consumption ⚡ across OECD countries, with key implications for energy policy. 🔗 Read: bit.ly/4qUYijs @ANUCrawford @MonashBusiness @latrobe

In the recent interview with @RadioNational, Warwick McKibbin discusses the implications of a potential criminal prosecution of Fed Chair Jerome Powell—and what it could mean for central bank independence and financial stability. 🎧 Listen: ab.co/4jGi4wo @ANUCrawford

📢 Happy 2026! The CAMA January 2026 Newsletter (Issue 77) is out! Stay up to date with our latest research, working papers, academic publications, upcoming events, and more. 🔗 Read it here: bit.ly/45b2C5E @ANUCrawford

Happy holidays from all of us at CAMA 🎄 Wishing you a joyful holiday season and a New Year of positive change, collaboration and impact in 2026 ✨ @ANUCrawford

CAMA WP 72/2025 studies how US–China geopolitical shocks affect mineral markets, using monthly data (1995–2025) and a structural VAR–local projection framework. 🌍⛏️📊 Read more 🔗 bit.ly/3YEVsTk @ANUCrawford @MonashBusiness @UTAS_

CAMA WP 71/2025 examines how to reignite investment momentum in EMDEs—amid slowing growth and rising macroeconomic and geopolitical risks 📉🌍⚠️ Read the paper🔗 bit.ly/4q0x5vm @ANUCrawford @WorldBank

📄 CAMA WP 70/2025 (by @JVespignani et al) examines how non-technical risk—policy, regulatory, social & geopolitical—raises capital costs, delays greenfield supply, and amplifies price volatility for critical minerals ⚡🌍 👉 🔗 bit.ly/49ihC3V @MonashBusiness @UTAS_

📄 CAMA WP 69/2025 offers novel causal evidence that macroeconomic narrative framing matters 📊 🗣️ How a policy is described — as a supply or demand shock — significantly shapes household beliefs. Read more 🔗 bit.ly/4j9bBtY @ANUCrawford @NBS_sk

📄 CAMA WP 68/2025 studies how temporal aggregation—the mismatch between the Data Generating Process (DGP) and the Data Collection Process (DCP)—affects the design of monetary policy in a New Keynesian framework with boundedly rational agents. 🔗 bit.ly/48TfUVh

🎉We are delighted to welcome Prof Russell Smyth @MonashBusiness to CAMA as a Research Associate. His research focuses on climate change 🌍and energy ⚡ Learn more about his work 🔗 bit.ly/4q9cJQe @ANUCrawford

📄 CAMA WP 67/2025 tackles the questions: What are the dynamic and welfare effects industrial policy? How does policymakers’ short-sightedness shape the choice of instruments? And what are the distributional consequences of protectionist measures? 👉🔗 bit.ly/4993Lgi

📄 CAMA WP 66/2025 examines how the social norm of intergenerational support — where parents expect financial help from adult children — shapes fertility choices and education investment in developing countries. Read more 👉 bit.ly/3Ypin4Y @ANUCrawford @CEPAR_research

🎉 Welcome @FanDoraXia to CAMA as a Research Associate in the Model Uncertainty & Macro-Econometrics program! She is a Principal Economist at BIS. We’re excited to have her expertise contribute to CAMA’s work. Learn more 🔗 bit.ly/4rLOslb @ANUCrawford

🚛🔋 CAMA WP 65/2025 by @AWiskich examines how autonomy shapes the competitiveness and operations of battery-electric long-haul trucks, offering new insights into the future of freight transport. 🔗bit.ly/4aAGkNY @ANUCrawford

📄 CAMA WP 64/2025 by Richard Dennis @UofGlasgow and Pelin Ilbas @NBB_BNB_FR examines a framework in which fiscal, monetary, and macroprudential policies interact — highlighting how policy coordination can deliver substantial gains. 🔗 bit.ly/48jK9V4 @ANUCrawford

📘 CAMA WP 63/2025 by Yun Young Gwak @MonashUni measures cross-sector spillovers in U.S. consumer price inflation using a factor-adjusted network approach. Learn more 🔗 bit.ly/3McsreL @ANUCrawford