Cassian

@Manolo784556518 Hey hey. It’s including the cash secured puts I had. So my price wasn’t accurate before as it didn’t account for profit from CSP. Now It’s correct

@ConvexDispatch You said before 5,6 cost basis

$HTZ quick update This is the expected backing and filling after the recent run. Volume on todays dip so far not ginormous at all that’s technically quite bullish on a lower volume pullback. IV taking a beating too. $6 is the key support level to watch. Still holding the full 15k at 4.50 avg

@grolkongz7 Exactly?!

@ConvexDispatch Wen USAR to $100

Nice progress in rare earth plays today. Both $UAMY and $USAR at crucial levels about to breakout! Waiting for $UAMY to test 16 soon!

@CraftJan0 @Jaydwade1688 Really good guess !

@Jaydwade1688 @ConvexDispatch Could be paying Tom De Mark

Just went through the latest BitMine 10-Q that dropped after market yesterday so you don’t have to. A lot of you keep asking me about the dilution and share issuance. If you are $BMNR $MSTR $BTC $ETH investor, read on! This form helps answer those questions pretty well and lays out the share count clearly. Share count went from roughly 232 million at end of August 2025 when the big ATM program launched, to 494 million by February 28 and now 537.6 million as of April 13. That means over 305 million new shares issued in about 8 months the float has more than doubled. That’s the dilution, but that’s technically what you get when you’re scaling this aggressively like a VC analyst would push for to build a massive ETH treasury fast. Quick recap from the filing and the April 13 update: BitMine is holding around 4.875 million ETH plus a bit of BTC, cash sitting at about 719 million, and some moonshots. Total crypto plus cash plus moonshots at 11.8 billion. Staking revenue is already showing up nicely and the balance sheet stays super clean with basically zero debt and strong liquidity. Right now with current market prices the mNAV comes in at around 0.93x. That definitely presents a great accumulation zone in my view. The BitMine play is straightforward. Once Ethereum starts to go up in price these are exactly the assets you want sitting on the balance sheet watching that upside compound with the staking yield on top. Of course it is still subject to Ethereum in which I am still short-term slightly very short-term cautious but very long-term bullish. Especially did not like how the broader market really ripped while Ethereum and Bitcoin stayed somewhat flat despite such strong demand from MicroStrategy hammering the preferred BTC buys. That is something I am kind of watching closely. That is the BitMine thesis for me right now. Slightly undervalued accumulation zone with huge long-term convexity to ETH. What do you guys think? Disclosure: I am long BMNR and still adding on dips.

Hey Jay, great catch on the G&A line. The ~$75M in Q2 (and the ~$299M for the 6 months) is mostly one-time and non-recurring stuff - heavy capital-raising, advisory, legal, and consulting fees tied directly to the big ATM program and the aggressive ETH treasury build-out we have been doing. The company spells it out in the MD&A: ongoing third-party fees to manage the multi-billion ETH portfolio are expected to run only $40k-$50k per year going forward (and staking revenue should cover that easily). There is also some stock-based comp mixed in. So no, it is not turning into a $300M annual expense run-rate. It is basically the cost of scaling this thing super fast, same way the dilution happened - you enroll the “VC analyst” playbook and you get the associated setup costs. Still super clean balance sheet otherwise and the thesis is intact. Appreciate you flagging it!

@ConvexDispatch Do you know what's causing the 75M General and admin expense? If that continues that'd be 300M a year

I got scared it was $NKE for a second 😂

$HTZ Update Fundamentals are tracking perfectly with my April 11 deep dive. Fleet turnaround complete, DPU at the 300 target, Manheim Index up 6.2 percent YoY, road trip demand tailwind staying strong, and AV optionality still priced at zero. Holding the full 15k shares at 4.50 average, now up 55 percent. Everything looking good. Technical setup confirms the thesis with the year long falling wedge breakout holding firm and Hull Suite support intact. Some backing and filling would be healthy here. 6.00 is the key support area that needs to hold overall. MACD bullish across every timeframe. Near term base 12 dollars into May 7 earnings. Thesis intact. Staying long the core.

On behalf of all the $BABA bulls may 200$ come sooner than 115$ Deep dive on $BABA below for those who missed

🎯

New tactical trade alert. Got some 685 SPY puts expiring on April 30th. We had a great run up but Hormuz is still closed and VIX is very compressed.

Learn with me as we unpack what traders actually mean when they say watch the price action not the headlines in this Iran Hormuz situation. You scan the news. No meaningful progress in talks. Uncertainty remains thick. Some traders cut risk or went short expecting an obvious selloff. Then the market moves anyway and they are surprised. This is precisely why price action matters. Price action does not mean ignore geopolitics or pretend the news does not exist. It means watching how the market digests every headline against what was already priced in. Asset prices are forward looking. They move on the gap between expectations and reality. A terrible headline can be bullish if the market feared something even worse and sellers cannot push price lower. That is information. A good headline can be bearish if the market had already baked in the upside and buyers cannot push price higher. That is also information. The current Hormuz setup shows this cleanly. Reuters reported the disruption severe enough for the IEA to call it the biggest oil supply shock on record. Brent surged on the immediate threat. Yet oil pulled back on hopes for talks and partial normalization trading back under recent highs around April 13 and 14. That does not mean the conflict stopped mattering. It means the market is trading the expected path from here not just the existence of the shock itself. Look at the oil curve for the clearest read. The front months scream higher on acute short term disruption fears. The back end is far less aggressive. The market is pricing a sharp but temporary shock rather than a permanent regime change in supply. The curve spreads those expectations through time. When traders say watch price not news the smart version means this. Watch the reaction to the news. Bad news that fails to make new lows is often constructive. Good news that fails to make new highs is often a warning. Watch relative strength. If energy defense shipping or gold keep leading after bad headlines the move has confirmation. If they stop responding the trade may already be crowded. Watch breadth and confirmation. One stock squeezing is not enough. A real shift shows up across the sector in credit rates FX commodities and index internals. Watch timeframe. A violent intraday bounce is not the same as a daily or weekly reversal. Strong price action can mean at least four different things. The market sees better fundamentals ahead. The market was too bearish and is unwinding positioning. It is a short squeeze. Or it is a reflex rally inside a larger downtrend. Price action is necessary but not sufficient. You still need context around positioning valuation and macro regime. A practical way to read it is simple. Bullish price action on bad news looks like this. Price dips briefly. Volume comes in. Leaders hold key levels. The sector closes strong. Follow through appears over the next sessions. Fake bullish price action looks like this. Price squeezes fast. Breadth is poor. Credit does not confirm. Rates and defensives disagree. The move fades within days. In other words the market is often trading the second order effect. Not Iran is bad or talks are good but is the path from here less bad than feared or more bad than feared. News tells you what happened. Price tells you what was already expected. The reaction tells you which side is trapped.

@JohnLoc18 Telling unfiltered truth like you do is something special on this platform!

I’m in deep depression recently because I have failed my mom, my family and people on here that have been counting on me a lot. I’m not hiding anything and telling the truth, I’ll be back to $50,000-$100,000 soon. Not today, tomorrow but I will. My mental health is more important.

@sauerbone7 Wedge is being put in as we speak

@ConvexDispatch Seems also like a sure fire way to start new conflicts with other nations who just want their oil. Now WE are standing in their way and greatly affected their economies? We have become the world's biggest asshole.

Hot Take: The US isn’t blockading Hormuz just to keep oil flowing in dollars. Run the thought experiment. Iran sets up a toll on tankers through the Strait. Major importers agree to pay it to keep oil moving. The tolls start settling in RMB, euros, or $BTC instead of USD. A sanctioned power begins monetizing one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints outside the dollar system. The world sees a strategic artery operating under parallel settlement rules. Other states take notice. They ask if this works here, what else can bypass SWIFT and the old dollar architecture? History shows the pattern. Saddam Hussein switched Iraqi oil sales to euros in 2000. Under Bush, regime change followed and trade reverted to dollars. Gaddafi pushed a gold-backed dinar for oil trade. Under Obama, NATO intervention followed and the plan died. @RayDalio has mapped this across empires. Late-stage powers lose ground faster when they let alternative settlement systems for core trade like energy become normal. Short-term supply pain is tolerable. Normalization of a non-dollar toll booth on a vital global artery is not. Once that precedent hardens, reversing it becomes much harder. This is the real game.

@Badie912 @MarkNewtonCMT @fundstrat @FundstratDirect Let’s see how this pans out 😅

@ConvexDispatch Wow. Who'da thunk to trade wheat?!? You and @MarkNewtonCMT @fundstrat @FundstratDirect

If Hormuz remains closed I expect this to go > 750 a bushel

I think I just found the macro playbook.