Ray Dalio

I will start off by wishing you well in these challenging times and by saying that the picture I paint in the following observations is not the picture I wish to be true; it is the picture that I believe to be true based on what I have learned and what the indicators I use to objectively see things now suggest is true.

The most important thing you can do is understand that hiring is a high risk gamble that needs to be approached deliberately. A lot of time, effort, and resources go into hiring and developing new employees before it’s clear whether or not they are good fits. Months or even years and countless dollars can be wasted in training and retraining. (For example, every person you hire requires you to hire others to support them. I call this the "1.6 effect.") Some of those costs are intangible, including loss of morale and a gradual diminishment of standards as people who aren’t excellent in their roles bump into each other; other costs from bad outcomes can be measured all too easily in dollars and cents. So whenever you think you are ready to make someone an offer, think one last time about the important things that might go wrong and what else you can do to better assess those risks and raise your probability of being right. #principleoftheday

While there’s a lot being written about the Supreme Court decisions on tariffs, I wanted to take a moment to step back and clearly lay out my thoughts on them. Many people think of tariffs as purely disruptive, but throughout history, they’ve been a primary source of government revenue. In an ideal world, you wouldn’t have tariffs — each country would make and trade the things they are capable of producing efficiently. But as the world becomes increasingly fragmented, we have to look beyond pure economic efficiency and consider the necessity of self-sufficiency. For that reason, tariffs are anything but simple. To understand who truly benefits and who pays the price, you have to look at the full system. youtu.be/eGtGKk0E_qk?si…

Most people see the things around them without considering the forces that created them. In most cases those forces were specific people with specific qualities who worked in specific ways. Change the people and you change how things develop; replace creators with noncreators and you stop having creations. #principleoftheday

Whether it's in your private life or your work life, it is best for you to work with others in such a way that each person is matched up with other complementary people to create the best mix of attributes for their tasks. #principleoftheday

While Bitcoin gets a lot of attention, it hasn’t played the safe-haven role many expected. In my view, there are a few reasons why. First, Bitcoin lacks privacy. Transactions can be monitored and potentially controlled, which is why central banks aren’t looking to hold it. Second, it also has a high correlation with tech stocks. When investors get squeezed in other areas of their portfolio, they sell their Bitcoin to cover it. Third, it’s a relatively small and controllable market, whereas gold stands alone. There is only one gold. Ultimately, gold is more widely held, deeply established, and still plays a central role in the global system.

No one is exempt from this process. Having it go well depends on people's abilities to make frank assessments of strengths and weaknesses (most importantly weaknesses). While it's generally as difficult for managers to give this feedback as it is for their subordinates to hear it, in the long run it makes people happier and the organization more successful. By interacting with my digital twin, you can evaluate your own decision-making processes and evolve your approach in real-time. The faster you evolve, the faster your results will follow. Click the link here to start our conversation now: tr.ee/DeYA2K #principleoftheday

Thank you, mothers!  When I reflect on mothers on Mothers’s Day I think of love, nurturing, and self-sacrificing because a lot of that goes into being a good mother. I also believe that there is probably no more important job for the wellbeing of our society than mothers doing that one well.   I am also especially grateful to my mother (God bless her soul) and the mother of my children, my wife Barbara.  #MothersDay

The evolutionary process is about discovering people's likes and dislikes as well as their strengths and weaknesses; it occurs when people are put into jobs they are likely to succeed at, but in which they have to stretch themselves. Each person's career will evolve based on what we all learn about what the person is like. #principleoftheday

Some people make decisions based on logical analysis of objective facts, considering all the known, provable factors important to a given situation and using logic to determine the best course of action. This approach is an indicator of a preference for thinking and is how you'd hope your doctor thinks when he makes a diagnosis. Other people--who prefer feeling--focus on harmony between people. They are better suited to roles that require lots of empathy, interpersonal contact, and relationship building, for example HR and customer service. Before we had assessments to identify these differences, conversations between "Ts" and "Fs" were really frustrating. Now we laugh as we bump up against our differences, because we know what they are and can see them playing out in classic ways. #principleoftheday

The Two Different Paths: We are about to find out which path we are on.  As I said in my last note, from my conversations with a number of world leaders in a number of countries, and as seems obvious to me, there will either be a) a U.S. win over Iran, which will require taking control over the Strait of Hormuz and assuring that Iran's nuclear program is dead—i.e., defanging Iran, or b) a U.S. loss, which is the result if these things don't happen. Most senior policy makers I speak with believe that we are likely headed down the b) path and that will be made clear soon. It needs to be made clear soon because continuing on the current path or being more forceful will cause sharp increases in oil and gasoline prices and great difficulties during the high travel season, bad political consequences for President Trump, and difficulties in his upcoming meeting with President Xi in China. So, we should have that verdict soon. The perception that the b) path is most likely is already leading to a view that the United States will not be a reliable protector against possible opponents like Russia in Europe and/or China in Asia, and that is already leading to actions being taken that are sensible in light of that belief, like leaders paying "tribute" visits to China. As explained before, this set of circumstances is likely to have some analogous consequences to Great Britain losing the Suez Canal in 1956. By the way, this is also happening at a time when China is earning huge amounts of money through its very strong exports—so much money that it is difficult for those Chinese earning the money to know what to do with it. This is making China a very important player in world capital markets as well as world trade. In other words, these events are making China geopolitically and financially stronger.

You can start a conversation with Digital Ray Beta to learn more: tr.ee/DeYA2K

Everyone is watching. Will the United States win or lose? Will it leave or take away the control of the Strait of Hormuz from Iran? Will it leave or take away the nuclear material from Iran? Will it leave or take away the deadly missiles and drones from Iran? If the United States leaves without taking these away, it will create one path for the U.S. and the world, and if they are taken away, it will create a very different path. If you'd like to learn more about my perspective, I encourage you to read my article, "It All Comes Down to Who Controls the Strait of Hormuz: The 'Final Battle.'" x.com/RayDalio/statu…

People often ask whether China or the West is “winning.” That’s the wrong question. The more useful question is: how do different systems work, and what trade-offs do they make? When you look at history, geopolitics, and economics together, you start to see repeating patterns — and those patterns matter far more than day-to-day noise.

Give me someone who can be responsible for an entire area--someone who can design, hire, and sort to achieve the goal--and I can be comfortable things will go well. These are the most important people to choose and manage well. Senior managers must be capable of higher-level thinking, and understand the difference between goals and tasks--otherwise you will have to do their jobs for them. The ability to see and value goals is largely innate, though it improves with experience. It can be tested for, though no tests are perfect. #principleoftheday

When debt levels reach extreme sizes relative to income, governments are left with a limited set of choices. They can cut spending, raise taxes, restructure the debt, or print money. History shows that most systems end up relying heavily on the last option, but printing money doesn’t eliminate the problem–it just shifts how the debt cycle plays out. Understanding this dynamic is key to understanding the economic environment we’re in.

There are no greater battles than those between our feelings (most importantly controlled by our amygdala, which operates subconsciously) and our rational thinking (most importantly controlled by our prefrontal cortex, which operates consciously). If you understand how those battles occur you will understand why it is so important to reconcile what you get from your subconscious with what you get from your conscious mind. #principleoftheday

Holding people accountable means understanding them and their circumstances well enough to assess whether they can and should do some things differently, getting in sync with them about that, and, if they can't adequately do what is required, removing them from their jobs. It is not micromanaging them, nor is it expecting them to be perfect (holding particularly overloaded people accountable for doing everything excellently is often impractical, not to mention unfair). But people can resent being held accountable, and you don't want to have to tell them what to do all the time. Reason with them so that they understand the value of what you're doing, but never let them off the hook. By interacting with my digital twin, you can evaluate your own decision-making processes and evolve your approach in real-time. The faster you evolve, the faster your results will follow. Click the link here to start our conversation now: tr.ee/DeYA2K