ThruTheFog

There is a third way. Narrow Super Intelligence. All the gain without the pain.

AI also automates scanning and exploiting vulnerabilities so the 'safety in numbers' buffer for small businesses no longer applies. But hey, just because Pliny the Liberator jailbreaks every SOTA release within a day or two, and some rando devs cracked Mythos access by guessing an approved contractor's credentials on Discord doesn't mean we can't trust Anthropic security, especially just a couple of weeks after Anthropic accidentally leaked their codebase to the Internet. The "Sorcerer's Apprentice" live-action remake is streaming to us in living color 3D.

@pfau As they are part of GDP, they will have to outrun themselves soon enough. 😉

At the current growth rate of 3x every quarter, Anthropic's revenue is on track to surpass Google in Q4 this year, Amazon in Q1 next year and the entire United States federal government somewhere in Q2/Q3.

@tbpn @mcuban Humans making robots in their own image, hmmm, sounds familiar. 😉

.@mcuban says humanoid robots won't last more than 5-10 years. Instead, we'll "design the house to fit the robot, and design the robot to fit the house." "You could create a house where the pantry, the refrigerator, and the washing machines were hidden behind the garage, if you even have a garage. That way you could redesign the house so that all the living space was for people."

@gnoble79 Blue Horseshoe loves Green Eyed Monster futures. 😉

Tesla is a $1.3 trillion company that sold fewer cars this year than last year. And fewer last year than the year before. That should tell you everything you need to know. 2 consecutive years of declining deliveries. Down 9% in 2025 to 1.63 million vehicles. The steepest annual drop in the company's history. And 2026 is starting even worse - US sales down 17% in January, Europe down 44% across major markets. France down 42%. Netherlands down 67%. Norway down 88%. BYD passed them as the global EV leader. In the UK, BYD outsold Tesla 2 to 1 last month. The brand is in FREEFALL. Brand Finance measured a 36% collapse in Tesla's brand value last year - down to $27.6 billion, less than half its 2023 peak. In California, their most important US market, share dropped from 11.6% to 9.9%. And the stock trades at 365 times trailing earnings. Let me say that differently: Tesla earned $3.8 billion last year. The market is valuing those earnings at $1.3 trillion. You are paying $365 for every dollar this company earns. The bull case has completely abandoned the car business. It's all robotaxis and Optimus robots now. They discontinued the Model S and Model X. They told investors on the last earnings call to stop focusing on vehicle deliveries and start thinking about "transportation as a service." So in other words: please ignore the business we actually have and value us on the business we MIGHT have someday. Trust me, every time management tells you to look over there instead of over here... LOOK OVER HERE. The car business is deteriorating. Margins are compressing. Competition from BYD, Volkswagen, and a dozen Chinese manufacturers is intensifying quarter by quarter. The $7,500 federal EV tax credit is gone, which effectively raised the price of every Tesla overnight. And instead of addressing any of that, they're doubling capex to $20 billion this year - almost entirely directed at AI and autonomous driving infrastructure. So you have a company with shrinking revenue, shrinking deliveries, a damaged brand, and intensifying competition pouring $20 billion into a technology that hasn't been proven at commercial scale. On 365 times earnings. Even if you give them the most generous robotaxi assumptions imaginable (full regulatory approval, nationwide deployment, dominant market share) you still can't justify this valuation. The present value of that optionality doesn't come close to $1.3 trillion when the core business is going backwards. I think this stock goes down 90% from here. Not because Tesla is worthless. They'll sell cars. The energy storage business has potential. But the equity is priced for a future that isn't coming on the timeline the market expects. A $37 stock. That's where the math takes you when you strip out the narrative and price what actually exists. I know that sounds extreme. But 45 years of doing this has taught me something: When you can see the seams on the fastball, you SWING. I can see the seams.

@Mr_Husky1 Transfer it to another secret account and tell him you donated it to charity. Problem solved(!) 😉 (unless you live in MA, CT, VT, KA, NH, OR, WA).

I’m about to get married, and my fiancé knows I have an inheritance that was left to me by my grandparents. It’s in my name only, and I’ve been saving it for years. Now he’s saying that before we get married, I should put the entire inheritance into a joint account so we can “start fresh together,” or he doesn’t think we should go through with the wedding. I’m 36 already and this is something my family worked hard to leave me. I’m torn between wanting to build a life together and feeling like I’m being pressured to give up something important to me. What do you think I should do? By isitmeaitah

@r0ck3t23 Definitions matter, but humanity is but tears in rain.😉

Emily Chang asked Demis Hassabis point blank if Elon Musk is right that we have entered the singularity. He didn’t hesitate. Hassabis: “No, I think that’s very premature.” This is not a podcaster with an opinion. This is the man who built AlphaGo. Who ran the lab that produced the Transformer. Who has arguably done more to lay the groundwork for modern AI than any single human alive. Elon reads the trajectory and calls the moment. Hassabis reads the architecture and says not yet. Same data. Different timelines. That alone should stop you cold. But that is not the line that should keep you up tonight. Hassabis: “We’ve invented about 90% of the breakthroughs that the modern industry relies on.” Ninety percent. Every company spending billions to scale large language models is building on top of architecture that came out of one lab. The Transformer. Deep reinforcement learning. AlphaGo. All of it came out of Google DeepMind. And he is telling you the ceiling everyone is racing toward is lower than they think. Ilya Sutskever said we are “back to the age of research.” Hassabis corrected him on the spot. Hassabis: “My view is we never left the age of research.” That is the fault line that defines the next five years. One side of this industry believes you can scale your way to superintelligence. Stack the chips. Push the parameters. Brute force the benchmarks until something wakes up. That bet is not wrong. Scaling works. It has produced results that five years ago would have sounded like science fiction. But scaling alone has a ceiling. And the people who built what is being scaled know exactly where that ceiling is. Hassabis is one of those people. And he has receipts. Hassabis: “If some new breakthroughs are required in the future, I would back us to be the ones to make those breakthroughs.” That is not arrogance. That is a batting average. When ninety percent of the foundational work came from your lab, saying you will deliver the next wave is not a prediction. It is pattern recognition. The market is obsessed with who has the most users. The most revenue. The flashiest launch. None of that matters if the current architecture hits a ceiling. And Hassabis is telling you it will. Not today. Not next quarter. But soon. The race everyone is watching is the scaling race. The race that actually decides the century is the invention race. Who builds the next architecture. The next paradigm. The thing that makes the Transformer look like a prologue. Hassabis put it in terms no one can ignore. Even five years is not a long time when you are talking about reinventing the most powerful technology in human history. And the man who built ninety percent of everything this industry stands on just told you he is not done. The companies celebrating today’s benchmarks are optimizing the present. Hassabis is building what replaces it. One of those bets ages well. The other one does not age at all.

Till this day I still don’t understand this particular scene…

@haha_girrrl The government rarely lets a crisis go to waste. 😉

Everyone says "Al will take all the jobs." But if that really happens... how does the system even function? No jobs → no income → no purchasing power. So who's buying products? Who's paying rent? What keeps the economy running?

@alexwg Mentat, Alien or AsI precursor, its so hard to decide!😉

Apparently, it's sponsored by Gulf(!)

I've been to Hell and Back. it looks nice on the surface, but perhaps a different story the deeper you go.

@dylan522p Still not seeing 'people drop dead in the street' videos, but I can make one easily enough with SeeDance 2.0.😉

Being in SF is like being in Wuhan right before the pandemic Something is happening, it's gonna hit everywhere but so few people know it

@elonmusk @tunguz Facts don't care about your feelings. -Ben Shapiro 🤣🤣🤣

@tunguz Feels like it

I have a fact based feeling that we’ll have the full AGI by the end of this year.

@WiseDad_Games @DrClownPhD Pam Bondi is pulling the strings(!)

@DrClownPhD Who's the chick?

Ok, I need to level up my AI skills. This is just amazing.

@akafaceUS Chinese water torture has really come a long ways.😉

Do you approve of teaching your kid to swim this way?

@HumanityChad All 10s except from the Russian Judge who knocked a half point off for the stumble at the :12 mark. Pity.😉

The fact they kept switching camera angles like it's an actual Olympic event is sending me 😭😭

@BitcoinNewsCom An extended forefinger is a symbolic stick. She is beating you with a stick to take your money.

They want to know exactly how much Bitcoin you have and be able to tell you when you have “too much.”

@ESYudkowsky The 'death by aging' argument relies on their being no alternatives delivering the benefits of ASI, eg. intentionally omits discussion of Artificial Narrow Intelligence.

Once there was a planet with a huge asteroid heading toward it. Stopping the asteroid would have required a few large countries to cooperate a moderate amount. That seemed hard. Some people became worried. A cult arose which said the asteroid would grant its believers eternal life, when it struck the planet. Nobody knew how to make the asteroid do that. But the cult said you couldn't prove it wouldn't. So there was no need to worry, and you could set your mind at ease. They called it the Asteroid of Immortality. Some of the world's most famous astronomers tried to explain in more detail what would happen when the asteroid smashed into the planet, and that it didn't involve eternal life. The cult said that nobody had seen that disaster actually happen, so it wasn't scientific to believe in it. (Other astronomers joined the cult of the Asteroid of Immortality. It regarded astronomers who joined them very favorably and warmly -- the cult did, that is; not the asteroid.) "If the asteroid *doesn't* hit our planet, everyone dies!" said the cult. "Like, because of old age, get it? Ha ha!" They thought this reply very clever. Transhumanists tried to point out that cryonics was in fact a thing, if somebody was that desperate to grasp any chance of escaping death by old age; that you could desperately grasp at immortality *without* endangering all life on the planet. Skeptics tried to explain that putting your faith in a falling asteroid to save you, just because it seemed big and powerful, wasn't much of a chance to grasp however desperately, because a falling asteroid would actually just kill you. People who cared about something other than themselves, tried to say that it was different for everyone to all die at the same time, including everyone's children; and leave no legacy for the children's children who might have been. "Everyone will die," said those trying to rally the world, "including your children; or your friends' children, if you've none of your own; they'll die before they have a chance to grow up, and have lives or children of their own. Every story ends in time; that's not the same as ending all stories." "Everyone will die all at the same time, if we don't stop the asteroid, and that will be the end." This didn't work to talk most believers out of their faith. Thinking it clever to reply "Ah ha ha, but everyone dies even if the asteroid *doesn't* hit!" usually meant having too little wisdom to understand the counter-replies. If you couldn't figure out the problems for yourself, before your mouth uttered such words, you usually wouldn't recant when somebody else tried to explain. Instead the cult decided to call the anti-doom coalition "doomers", and thought that very clever too. The cult spent vast amounts to build huge electromagnets to try to pull in the asteroid faster. The cult knew, their faith held, that the asteroid would fall in time regardless. But the prospect of pulling down the asteroid a little sooner, let them feel powerful and in control, and like *they* were the ones making history. (Indeed, many splinter factions within the cult each said that if their followers invested enough to build the *most* powerful magnet, that would make it be *their* Asteroid of Immortality, and *they* would become the rulers of the new world.) Above all, the cult worked to stoke enmity between the couple of large countries that would have needed to work together to deflect the asteroid. And at that task, unfortunately, the cult succeeded. For it was ever easier to push people downhill than uphill, to fight alongside entropy rather than fighting back against it; and call the default sad outcome your victory. Coordination was hard and not the default, and maybe it wouldn't have happened either way. But the cult did fight on the side of entropy, and entropy did win. The cult likewise succeeded at pulling down the asteroid with electromagnets, if you wanted to look at things that way. They got the default outcome they'd defined as their own victory. They managed to let a falling asteroid fall. And then everyone died, all at the same time including all the children, and that was the end of all stories.

@PistolPete676 @Artemisfornow When there are great masses of unemployed, they won't be quibbling about ism terminology, count on it.

And not enough people will be able to afford the things AI will produce. If jobs are to be replaced henceforth there will need to be some sort of recompense to fatten up the welfare budget, without it feeling like communism. Difficult to balance when so many sit on welfare already with anxiety or similar.

When millions of white collar workers are replaced by Ai, the impact won’t only be on them. It will hit tax revenues meaning the government will have less money, but millions more on welfare. A trade won’t help you, your customers won’t be able to afford to pay! That will include childminders, plumbers and electricians. There will be less retail, no one has enough money to buy anything. Private pensions won’t save you, investments will collapse and tax will increase. The underclass will be the majority class. And now you understand why they need digital ID, surveillance tools and information censorship. A poor, hungry, pointless majority would be uncontrollable and dangerous.

@davygravy1958 @Artemisfornow Driving at high speed by looking exclusively at the rear view mirror leads to an eventful trip. 😉

Every new revolution, including the industrial revolution worried mankind would be replaced, it didn't, jobs got replaced with new jobs. The biggest question is, during the initial transition period, when there will be a lull in the job market, why are governments flooding their nations with people who are used to a much lower standard of living and pay?

@spjohnson2025 @Artemisfornow This too shall pass. AI will be better at managing agents not much longer afterwards. Remaining jobs will be absorbed in waves.

Jobs will change. AI is going everywhere. First conversations with AI compute servers will replace all internet searches and all document reading/writing. Next AI agents will replace internal processes in all large and medium sized companies. There will be millions of jobs building, maintaining, managing and using AI agents. We are shifting to an AI agent based economy just like the industrial revolution switched us away from farming and the information revolution added jobs.