Bitcoin News

🚨🚨🚨Exchange reserves are 10,088 BTC from making a new ATH. As of Saturday 07/11/2026, 23:59:03 UTC, centralized exchanges held a total of 3,615,756 BTC. - Net increase of 110,158 BTC Year-To-date

I built a model that stops measuring Bitcoin against one valuation line and instead measures where it sits inside the entire valuation architecture at once. 14 dimensions. Realized price, STH and LTH cost basis, Delta Price, Top Price, Pi Cycle, MVRV, NUPL, thermocap, full supply-in-profit structure. Every metric converted into a normalized distance, every day since 2012 assigned a geometric fingerprint, today compared against all 5,300 of them simultaneously. The findings: Bitcoin at $63,780 sits at the 18.6th percentile of its own valuation geometry. Cheap. Every prior cycle low printed below the 5th. The fingerprint is fractured across eras. MVRV says March 2023. Supply-in-profit says September 2014. Delta Price distance says December 2015. Thermocap says June 2013. This exact configuration has never existed - the market is quoting four different decades of itself simultaneously and calling it a price. The 20 most similar days in history split into two tribes: 11 mid-bear days that returned a median +12% over the next year, and 8 early-recovery days that returned +260%. The tie-breaker dimensions - trend structure and STH cost-basis momentum - currently vote with the bears. Short-term holder cost basis is deflating at 6% per month, and that only happens while capitulation is still being processed. My favorite detail: one of the nearest analogs to today is December 18, 2025. This cycle. Three floors up at $85K. Bitcoin's closest historical comparison is its own recent past, and that comparison resolved by becoming today. We are our own cautionary tale now. The forward distribution from the full neighborhood: 30d median −5% 90d median −14% 12m median +63% 24m median +160%, positive in 19 of 19 cases One structural discovery worth the whole exercise is the bottom zone itself is migrating. Terminal lows printed at geometry scores of −2.04 (2015), −1.83 (2018), −1.47 (2022). The extremes decay ~0.3 per cycle as capital deepens. This cycle's trough so far: −0.97. Either the compression continued one more notch and the low is in, or history collects its usual admission fee somewhere near the realized price at $53K. Regardless, it's cheap here and I'm a buyer.

📊 40% of altcoins are trading around their all time low. That’s today’s stat, and it reflects the harsh reality facing all these projects that chose to launch a token. To be precise, I built this chart to visualize altcoins trading below 25% of their all time low. 💥 The altcoin market has now reached an extreme level of underperformance. When BTC dropped back below $60,000 in late June, that number even climbed to 45%. It’s important to understand that this market has changed. Today, CMC counts around 53.5 million cryptos created, with 60,000 new ones added daily. ⚠️ Without strong incoming liquidity, it’s easy to see why the majority of these cryptos are doomed to fail. It’s now essential to carefully select the projects you choose to be exposed to, and stay highly selective.

$BTC ABOVE ITS $63.9K P10 STRESS FLOOR THE 9-YEAR MODEL PATH IMPLIES AN 18.1× RETURN TO ~$1.16M AT ~38% CAGR Current price: $64.1K Structural levels: $76K adoption spine $90.8K 400-day cycle level $135K power-law trend Bitcoin remains: 16% below structure 29% below its cycle level 53% below trend 5-year median: $466K 7.3× | 48.7% CAGR 5-year P10: $231K 3.6× | 29.2% CAGR 9-year median: ~$1.16M 18.1× | +1,710% | estimated 38.0% CAGR 9-year P10: ~$545K 8.5× | +750% | estimated 26.8% CAGR Even the lower-tail path compounds ~27% annually from today. The market is focused on the next 90 days. The opportunity is in the next 5–9 years. Bitcoin is not a timing trade. It is a duration trade.