Jeff Binder

Jerry's last words to Bobby...ALWAYS A HOOT!! I first saw the Dead as kid in 1978...was lucky enough to see them play many times before Jerry died...now with Bobby gone, the legacy will live on for centuries, if not longer! Sad day in the annals of Rock and Roll...

I have not seen a single professor of physics or engineering EVER say Musks vision only FSD would work. Only the opposite. 1:40,000 miles per crash with a safety driver is a joke. It equates 1 crash in every 1,000-2,000 miles without. I haven’t even seen a legitimate engineer back it. Just stock pumper failed ones. Musks own engineers don’t back it, everyone left. My father in law is a mechanical engineer at Sandia National Labs and all of his friends laugh at the approach (granted they swore off getting in a Waymo too). Literally pumpers and Musk are the only ones that believe Musks bullshit at Tesla $TSLA

Easily. You have a Robotaxi like Waymo that actually works and creat sensor packages Y the thousands and use any one of the 18 million made in the USA and Tesla has yet to prove it even has one it that it doesn’t use specialized geofenced SW. Not to mention, an utter lack of comparable public safety data.

Tesla is the only robotaxi operator in North America that can mass manufacture its own robotaxis. Tesla can pump out over 4,500 of these per week from Giga Texas, and at a fraction of the cost of competitor robotaxis. How do you compete with that? FSD Unsupervised is here.

@mjfree And it hasn’t happened and never will 😂 Please see a doctor:-)!

For the first time ever in human history, Christmas is on 25/25/25. This phenomenon will never happen again.

🚨 $TSLA TESLA THE ONLY EV MAKER TO SEE DECLINING US SALES IN AUGUST. US SALES DROPPED 6.7% YOY IN THE US ACCORDING TO COX

Tesla $TSLA will go down in history as the biggest failed US company by market cap in history. The go to example of the stock market bubble, where lying about your products and what you are developing is more important than sales.

@DenverTeslaClub @Teslalightshows Amazing!!

Tonight we will be seeing you all from the top of Pikes Peak for the World’s Highest Light Show!!

@garyblack00 Nobody should underestimate $GOOG with more than 35x the FCF of Tesla. Moreover, Google’s data and AI capabilities are second to none, not to mention nearly 3 decades of mapping expertise. I’m a huge fan and believe anyone who underestimates Google does so at their peril.

Investors need to stop focusing on $TSLA vs Waymo efficacy. Waymo recently did an equity raise at $45B valuation. The implied value of Robotaxi assuming the rest of TSLA is valued at 60x P/E (vs 25-30% long-term growth) is $500B. The market is putting a multiple of value on TSLA Robotaxi vs Waymo to reflect its far greater scalability and profitability.

@garyblack00 100%. Gary. It will be a race to the bottom. And the window for Tesla closed a few years back. It’s pretty much over from a valuation perspective and could easily be a drag on the stock going forward.

The $TSLA debate is not about Tesla robotaxi vs Waymo or Zoox, or whether TSLA robotaxi will work at 99.99% efficacy. Of course it will work or Elon wouldn’t be moving forward with the Austin robotaxi launch today. The question - which bulls painfully avoid - is when others master general unsupervised autonomy (I have long said autonomy is table stakes for all automobile mnfrs) what valuation will be attached to TSLA autonomy when it has to split the autonomous ride hailing market with others? $GOOG, $AMZN, $BIDU, $PONY, $BYDDY, $NVDA are not going away. Very few bulls put much thought into the valuation question. “Tesla will have, I don’t know,” Elon Musk mused in a recent conference call with investors, ”99% market share or something ridiculous.” Really? This is the same argument I made to TSLA bulls in 2021 when everyone told me TSLA would be producing 20M EVs per year by 2030, equal to a 25% overall share (current 2030 WS est 3.7M, 4.6% share) and I made similar arguments about competition, and was told $TSLA had no competition. History doesn’t repeat but it often rhymes.

@Tslachan Possibly one of the undoes rear ends of any car on the road. Not sure why people think The new Y is cool. It’s ugly AF.

$TSLA SUPER COOL! 🧊❄️🥶

@RadioFreeTom @JerryDunleavy Tom, great to see you out there setting the straight on the terminology! I remember the preventive vs preemptive subject well in your Nuclear Weapons class - which I aced btw:-)!! Hope you’re well!!

Sorry, @JerryDunleavy - but unless Israel can show some kind of time pressure or "imminence" - a term central to these definitions for more than 200 years - you're just wrong here. If you need to read a book, I'll spot you a few pages from mine

Gary, how do you feel about the agency heads now being unrestrained in resuming the various investigations into Musk &Co? Trump may look docile on the outside towards Musk, but I can’t see him forgeting having been called a Pedo in the public square and no President, especially @realDonaldTrump will ever let go of someone calling for his impeachment.

We believe the public feud between Elon and Trump will die down over the next few days, as Elon de-escalates the rhetoric in front of next week’s scheduled June 12 robotaxi launch in Austin. We are unsure of the lasting impact to $TSLA from the extraordinary events of the past 24 hours, but believe TSLA is now oversold after a 20% haircut since we sold out of our position at $358 a week ago.

@garyblack00 I believe the stock price is priced for something really significant in Austin, and isn't prepared for simply a trial with employees. The promise in October was for a launch...a trial that goes at low speeds with employees avoiding most intersections is not a launch.

Stock prices quickly incorporate all available new information. That’s what economists mean when they use the term “market efficiency.” For the Austin robotaxi event next week, the market already assumes the launch will be successful i.e. uneventful, with routes pre-mapped, challenging intersections avoided, and tele-operators supervising the vehicles 1:1 to start. If there are no unintended events, there may be some upward movement in the $TSLA stock price. If there are unintended events that result in injury or damage, we would expect $TSLA stock to decline, potentially significantly, given TSLA stock’s +33% appreciation in anticipation of the Austin launch since disappointing 1Q earnings were released April 22. Any suggestion that Trump will throw the weight of the Presidency behind a national unsupervised autonomy standard could propel TSLA much higher.

@garyblack00 How can you say they don’t get much of a boost from credits when 150% of the profit came from credits?

2/ $TSLA earnings quality was fairly high: Unlike prior quarters, TSLA’s P&L did not get much of a boost from sale of ZEV credits ($595M), SG&A (6.5% of Rev), and Other expense lines (Other operating expense -$94M, Other non-operating expense -$119M), which came in worse than expected. Tax rate was high (28.7%). 1Q FCF of $664M was lower than expected as CapExp was lighter than expected. One positive comment and the reason TSLA stock is down just -0.2% AH is that TSLA’s product plans seem on track: More affordable vehicle (June), Austin unsupervised autonomous ride hailing test (June), and Cybercab (2026). We expect mgmt to provide more color about these product plans on the conference call at 530pm ET.

$TSLA 1Q results came in well below WS expectations: - Non-GAAP EPS of $.27 missed WS est of $.38. - Auto gross margin ex-reg credits of 12.5% in line with WS estimates. - Total Rev of $19.3B well below WS ests of $21.4B - FCF of $664M way below WS est of $1.1B On the positive side, TSLA’s plans to launch more affordable vehicles remains on track to start production in 1H. Cybercab is scheduled for volume production on 2026. Company remains on track for pilot launch of Robotaxi in Austin by June. TSLA +1% AH to $239.60.

@jaredpolis 100%. Jones act is an antiquated and outdated law and modern security, shipbuilding and labor realities have evolved far beyond the 1920s assumptions that justified it originally.

Repealing all tariffs and ending the Jones Act would be a recipe for huge economic growth and success for USA and the world! Let’s do it! Jobs, opportunity, lower prices, and growth!

@garyblack00 Gary, $TSLA PE is closer to 150x post 4/22. It’s a 6x vs the SPX. It could easily fall 50% from here and still be 5x the SPX.

This should be obvious but the reason $TSLA is being pummeled disproportionately today (TSLA -8.7% vs NDX -3.7%, AAPL -4.0%) despite very limited exposure to increased Chinese tariffs is because the odds of global recession have risen exponentially as countries like China, France and Germany have indicated they will retaliate against the U.S. rather than negotiate. This makes the situation today much similar to 1930 Smoot-Hawley where countries protected their own economic interests and retaliated rather than reduced tariffs to appease the U.S. We have seen estimates of 3-4% GDP declines over two years if the tariffs go into effect as announced at the Rose Garden event Wednesday. In recessions global cyclical companies get hurt disproportionately as consumers cut back on spending and high P/E stocks get punished most (TSLA 2025 P/E 100x vs S&P 500 2025 P/E 21x).

@elonmusk instead of the US buying potentially worthless crypto, why not do an ICO of ten trillion USD coins decoupled from the USD, raise one trillion $$ for the budget and stick the other $9 trillion in a strategic reserve. I’m hearing rumors of this already…thoughts??

@garyblack00 I’m not talking about the direct effects, in which I agree with your point. I’m more talking about the indirect effects. Even if you are supporter of Elon, Tesla and Trump - you don’t want to worry about having your car trashed by the crazos that abhor Elon and Tesla.

@JeffBinder Idk… these waves of love and hate toward. Elon trend to ebb and flow. Yes, the liberals who tend to overindex EVs currently loathe him, but the conservatives worship his efforts to reduce the size of govt. In the end, it might be a wash.

I estimate that a 10x increase in $TSLA earnings in 5 years translates to a present value $714/share TSLA stock price and $2.3 trillion in market cap. The math is on my subscriber feed. That’s Elon’s assumption - not ours.

Hey @realDonaldTrump is it true that the real plan is to create a USD crypto coin decoupled from the dollar and raise trillions issuing it? And that only it would be held in a strategic reserve and Bitcoin and others won’t ever be on a US balance sheet?