KB

6.6K posts

KB

KB

@KBvsTheWORLD

Disclaimer: I dont necessarily agree with anything I say or tweet #forlegalreasonsonly

Planet Earth Bergabung Haziran 2008
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KB@KBvsTheWORLD·
@jvb_xyz Bad take
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KB@KBvsTheWORLD·
@AbelAvellan Not trying to be a Debbie Downer. But how exactly? 7 months left. Only have 3 sats ready to ship in the next 30 days. Maybe I’m missing something. I believe in the company long term but setting unrealistic expectations isn’t good.
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Abel Avellan
Abel Avellan@AbelAvellan·
The first stage was nominal, and the booster came back beautifully. We separated and turned on as expected, but the launch vehicle second stage did not place BlueBird 7 on its intended orbit. We are on Satellite 32 and plan to ship BB8 to 10 in approximately 30 days and continue to target ~ 45 satellites in orbit this year.
AST SpaceMobile@AST_SpaceMobile

AST SpaceMobile Addresses Today’s Orbital Launch of BlueBird 7 on the New Glenn Launch Vehicle businesswire.com/news/home/2026…

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KB@KBvsTheWORLD·
@KevinLMak Hey Kevin, I assume the arb you found is no longer there. Care to share what it was?
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Kevin Mak
Kevin Mak@KevinLMak·
The main difference in my story is that I* found an arb and turned $200k into $5m in 3 months. That cut a couple years out of the equation. (*With partner involvement). Funny part is I talked to 3 professional funds about the strategy as I was doing it and they all dismissed it, but none of them had good reasons for why it wasn't a good strategy.
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KB@KBvsTheWORLD·
@spacanpanman Seems like RKLB is getting overly dependent on government/military funding. Do you think this acq helps on th commercial side?
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Anp🅰️nman
Anp🅰️nman@spacanpanman·
$BKSY $RKLB: The more research I do, the more I'm warming up to the idea that Rocket Lab *should* acquire BlackSky. There's tremendous strategic rationale and financial logic to a combination. If I was still an investment banker, I'd be pitching the idea to SPB and the board.
Anp🅰️nman@spacanpanman

2/ $BKSY: For those wondering, here's how $RKLB and $BKSY stack up .... it'd be a very easy deal for $RKLB to do. Enterprise Value: $RKLB: $42B $BKSY: $1B 2026 Revenue: $RKLB: $851M $BKSY: $133M 2027 YoY Rev Growth: $RKLB: 40% $BKSY: 28% 2027 Gross Margin: $RKLB: 42% $BKSY: 71% 2027 EBITDA Margin: $RKLB: 13% $BKSY: 24% 2027 EBITDA Multiple: $RKLB: 35x $BKSY: 26x

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Rocket L🅰️b 🦛
Rocket L🅰️b 🦛@TobyDDRice·
@daveginvesting Turns our Adam replies direct if you contact the Investor email. Confirmed they want lots of cash on hand for acquisition opportunities.🤑🤑🤑
Rocket L🅰️b 🦛 tweet media
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Rebekah Allen
Rebekah Allen@rebekahallen·
Jasmine Crockett joined the Senate primary confident she was making it to the general. So in the race against Talarico, her campaign lacked ground game, $ and a campaign manager. They thought they the real fight was in November. @kaylaguo_ reports: texastribune.org/2026/03/06/jas…
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Kevin Mak
Kevin Mak@KevinLMak·
@MrMojoRisinX To be fair it’s not taking a L. It’s just trimming based on diminished risk/reward dynamics. But I don’t think of wins and losses in concrete terms anyways. Thx for the compliment regardless!
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Mojo@MrMojoRisinX·
FinX will come after Kevin (my guess is for the incorrect reasons), but what I see in lights is someone willing to to change their mind, cut a position, re-underwrite, reallocate capital and move forwards. I don’t know anything about ASTS so don’t attack the message…but it’s refreshing to see someone that knows how to take an underwriting “L” vs being stubborn
Kevin Mak@KevinLMak

$ASTS Consistent with my ongoing analysis, I've reduced my weight in ASTS from 3% to about 1.6%. The operational challenges with scaling satellite production appears to be more significant than I previously expected, and I will want to see meaningful progress on that front before getting more bullish. Either they're running into a plethora problems that they didn't anticipate, OR they're running into problems that they did anticipate and just choose to downplay it for the past 18 months. Realistically the answer is likely a little bit of both. At the end of the day, their number one job is to build and launch birds. Yes there are launch partner delays but it's the building/assembly part that's the current bottleneck. There's a real scenario that they don't have 60 birds in orbit until late 2027. I don't know what the % chance of that is, but it's not zero, and I definitely would have had said zero last year. The issue is the current ACTUAL (not guided) pacing provides zero data for an outsider to extrapolate from. And their previous guidance has been extremely wrong, so it's really hard to say "this time their guidance will be correct." I'm becoming more confident about my previous comments about this turning into an S-tier meme stock. The product seems to be more about the stock price and promises made by the company than actual operations. This is an asset to the company (and shareholders) as the volatility is dampened if bad news occurs. It ends well as long as they manage to eventually reach their goal. I still think the company gets the full constellation up, and significant revenues are likely to follow, but I want to see more metal in orbit, or a far lower stock price before I can be more constructive on the valuation being appealing. x.com/KevinLMak/stat…

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Kevin Mak
Kevin Mak@KevinLMak·
$ASTS Consistent with my ongoing analysis, I've reduced my weight in ASTS from 3% to about 1.6%. The operational challenges with scaling satellite production appears to be more significant than I previously expected, and I will want to see meaningful progress on that front before getting more bullish. Either they're running into a plethora problems that they didn't anticipate, OR they're running into problems that they did anticipate and just choose to downplay it for the past 18 months. Realistically the answer is likely a little bit of both. At the end of the day, their number one job is to build and launch birds. Yes there are launch partner delays but it's the building/assembly part that's the current bottleneck. There's a real scenario that they don't have 60 birds in orbit until late 2027. I don't know what the % chance of that is, but it's not zero, and I definitely would have had said zero last year. The issue is the current ACTUAL (not guided) pacing provides zero data for an outsider to extrapolate from. And their previous guidance has been extremely wrong, so it's really hard to say "this time their guidance will be correct." I'm becoming more confident about my previous comments about this turning into an S-tier meme stock. The product seems to be more about the stock price and promises made by the company than actual operations. This is an asset to the company (and shareholders) as the volatility is dampened if bad news occurs. It ends well as long as they manage to eventually reach their goal. I still think the company gets the full constellation up, and significant revenues are likely to follow, but I want to see more metal in orbit, or a far lower stock price before I can be more constructive on the valuation being appealing. x.com/KevinLMak/stat…
Kevin Mak tweet media
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Phillip Lyle
Phillip Lyle@philliplyle410·
@KBvsTheWORLD @KevinLMak None of their delays were even mentioned by analysts or the news media. Amazing given that they promised 5 launches and might get 1.
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KB@KBvsTheWORLD·
@philliplyle410 @KevinLMak Aight I don't need them to be perfect. I ain't convincing you and you ain't convincing me. stock up to $105 though.
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Phillip Lyle
Phillip Lyle@philliplyle410·
@KBvsTheWORLD @KevinLMak Go back and read Kevin's post. They have said stuff the entire last year and not hit any of it. You're now telling me they'll be perfect the rest of the year after being way wrong for the past two years.
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KB@KBvsTheWORLD·
@philliplyle410 @KevinLMak Bro did you even listen to the earnings call? They are going to stack satellites after this launch (up to 8 per launch). They also identified a backup heave lift rocket. If they launch the max they only need 5. I don't have a clue if they make it buy its not impossible
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Phillip Lyle
Phillip Lyle@philliplyle410·
@KBvsTheWORLD @KevinLMak Yes, pushed launches from last year. If you count that one, then launches every 45 days on average in 2026 means they have 8 launches to go, and the next one is May. So that means you are saying they will launch every month between May and December.
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Phillip Lyle
Phillip Lyle@philliplyle410·
@KBvsTheWORLD @KevinLMak Well, it won't be true at least until May when the first batch launches. That's a third of the year gone by.
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KB@KBvsTheWORLD·
@spacanpanman Not sure I would agree with a 12% WACC seems a bit low but I also dont think a DCF is the appropriate way to value this
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Anp🅰️nman
Anp🅰️nman@spacanpanman·
$ASTS: 🚨 BANK OF AMERICA REITERATES $100 PRICE TARGET AND NEUTRAL RATING "Launch Cadence Set to Ramp" Launch and manufacturing cadence top of mind in 4Q Key topics for ASTS' 4Q earnings included 1) expected satellite launch and manufacturing cadence, 2) associated build costs, and 3) 2026 guidance. ASTS expects to launch BlueBird 7 in March. After BlueBird 7 ASTS expects 3, 4, 6 and 8 satellites per launch and 45 satellites in orbit by year end. We expect partial service will begin in 2H26 and full service in early 2027. ASTS exited 2025 having reached a production capacity to support up to six satellites worth of micron and phased array per month. ASTS has secured >$1bn in contracted revenue commitments from various mobile network operators (MNOs) and is also competing for additional government contracts.
Anp🅰️nman tweet media
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KB@KBvsTheWORLD·
@QwQiao Sometimes I think we forget there are ppl behind this…kids mortgages and lives impacted. But sure a witty tweet sounds awesome.
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qw@QwQiao·
i said to an ex-googler last month that thx to ai bigtech can double their margins overnight by firing 80% of the staff and still function well. his response: even before ai they could fire 80% and still function well. i nodded in agreement.
jack@jack

we're making @blocks smaller today. here's my note to the company. #### today we're making one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation. i'll be straight about what's happening, why, and what it means for everyone. first off, if you're one of the people affected, you'll receive your salary for 20 weeks + 1 week per year of tenure, equity vested through the end of may, 6 months of health care, your corporate devices, and $5,000 to put toward whatever you need to help you in this transition (if you’re outside the U.S. you’ll receive similar support but exact details are going to vary based on local requirements). i want you to know that before anything else. everyone will be notified today, whether you're being asked to leave, entering consultation, or asked to stay. we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving. but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly. i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. i chose the latter. repeated rounds of cuts are destructive to morale, to focus, and to the trust that customers and shareholders place in our ability to lead. i'd rather take a hard, clear action now and build from a position we believe in than manage a slow reduction of people toward the same outcome. a smaller company also gives us the space to grow our business the right way, on our own terms, instead of constantly reacting to market pressures. a decision at this scale carries risk. but so does standing still. we've done a full review to determine the roles and people we require to reliably grow the business from here, and we've pressure-tested those decisions from multiple angles. i accept that we may have gotten some of them wrong, and we've built in flexibility to account for that, and do the right thing for our customers. we're not going to just disappear people from slack and email and pretend they were never here. communication channels will stay open through thursday evening (pacific) so everyone can say goodbye properly, and share whatever you wish. i'll also be hosting a live video session to thank everyone at 3:35pm pacific. i know doing it this way might feel awkward. i'd rather it feel awkward and human than efficient and cold. to those of you leaving…i’m grateful for you, and i’m sorry to put you through this. you built what this company is today. that's a fact that i'll honor forever. this decision is not a reflection of what you contributed. you will be a great contributor to any organization going forward. to those staying…i made this decision, and i'll own it. what i'm asking of you is to build with me. we're going to build this company with intelligence at the core of everything we do. how we work, how we create, how we serve our customers. our customers will feel this shift too, and we're going to help them navigate it: towards a future where they can build their own features directly, composed of our capabilities and served through our interfaces. that's what i'm focused on now. expect a note from me tomorrow. jack

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KB@KBvsTheWORLD·
@anistotle_ So dumb. Dude wrote a thought piece know there are 100s of response pieces trying to do the exact same thing 🙄
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KB@KBvsTheWORLD·
@daveginvesting Maybe I was listening to the wrong call but the takeaway I got was they are on a stable growth pattern. With plenty in the pipeline to sustain the growth, Albeit with debt from the Edge Autonmy acq.
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Dave G
Dave G@daveginvesting·
$RDW - I must say I am getting tired of these EAC Adjustments.
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KB@KBvsTheWORLD·
@spacanpanman Looks like 22M+ volume today
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Anp🅰️nman
Anp🅰️nman@spacanpanman·
$LUNR: The $175M deal was priced at $15.12, which equates to 11.57M shares. Given the 20% discount to market, I assume that this deal was primarily placed with capital markets desks at hedge funds who typically flip their allocations to lock in profits. This is a private placement where the stock has to be registered for resale no later than April 1st. That said, the subscription agreement has no restrictions on short sales, which allows purchasers to hedge the stock they bought at $15.12. If you're long or looking to trade $LUNR, watch volume to hit at least 12-14M for the stock to stabilize.
Anp🅰️nman@spacanpanman

$LUNR: Kind of scummy not to disclose the price per share of the offering in the press release. You have to go dig for it in the 8K $15.12 per share, a 20% discount to the prior close of $18.90

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