phoenix

2.7K posts

phoenix

phoenix

@Phoenix_FFM

Asymmetric bets, deep value, preferably uncorrelated to the major markets, mostly small cap or even smaller

Bergabung Mayıs 2022
520 Mengikuti401 Pengikut
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phoenix
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM·
Current allocation: 30% gold via miners and tiny bit of silver 15% long volatility via market makers $FLOW, $virt and $abca.pa 55% global diversified microcaps >30% short cash Rules of thumb so far meaning sometimes I wait to rebalance when I want to be overweight certain assets. Litigation finance didn't provide any diversification benefit. Still holding $BCHT and $BUR but it doesn't get its own fixed allocation bucket no more.
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM

Current allocation: 15% litigation finance 15% gold via miners to increase leverage to the gold price 15% long volatility via market makers $FLOW, $virt and $abca, $LUS1 55% small and microcaps 45% short cash Oil and gas stocks are dragging the portfolio down currently.

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phoenix
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM·
Very true! There's vast research showing that the chances are stacked against you und the failure rates are extremely high. Gladly nobody reads research about success rates of startups. Imagine being teenage Elon and telling someone you're about to build multiple successful companies that will reshape entire industries and make you the richest person alive. How would he not be considered delusional?
Codie Sanchez@Codie_Sanchez

Harsh truth: if you’re at a startup and the founder isn’t intense and even slightly delusional… you’re not going to win.

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phoenix
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM·
Why would Iran open the strait if the US blockade is still in effect? 😉
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Clark Square Capital
Clark Square Capital@ClarkSquareCap·
me, when another hedge fund manager starts a paid substack
Clark Square Capital tweet media
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phoenix
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM·
We have some similar products in Europe. It's a note with a bank as counterparty. If they default you loose even if you won the bet. So the worst case is zero % return? What's the catch? Maybe it is calculated in Tenge? Current interest rate is around 18%. So the trick is maybe you lend them money for 0% and they can invest it 18%. They use a part of the proceeds to hedge the stock position and the rest is their profit.
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Mr.Paul
Mr.Paul@shravanrayhaan·
Essentially a note(didnt bother reading the whole prospectus) offering 9% even if berky shares rise way more than that or just your money back if they decline. The audacity! Lol #freedomholdings
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Mr.Paul
Mr.Paul@shravanrayhaan·
Amazing what is perfectly legal some days. 😆 🤣 Freedom Brokers (Keep an account with them primarily to get kazakh exposure at some point/diversify away from ibkr)
Mr.Paul tweet mediaMr.Paul tweet media
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phoenix
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM·
@toiletkingcap I'm still guessing yes but I'm also loosing on all related stocks so better ignore
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🚽 🤴JRR ToiletKing
🚽 🤴JRR ToiletKing@toiletkingcap·
so are we invading or nah? if we invade, will traffic stop and this is all reversed?
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Lee Roach
Lee Roach@leevalueroach·
You guys ever read the news on your laptop, while also reading another news story on your phone, while the news plays on the TV in the background?
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phoenix
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM·
@AyusoValue I see your point. I hope the market develops a different view as those reliable cash flows deserve a higher multiple imo.
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Ayuso
Ayuso@AyusoValue·
@Phoenix_FFM Well, it is precisely in those jurisdictions where FLNGs make more sense. Anyway, one could just as easily argue that the EU/US are no longer safe jurisdictions for infrastructure investment.
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Ayuso
Ayuso@AyusoValue·
Maybe I am a dreamer, but I wouldn’t discard a $GLNG vessel in Venezuela in the not-too-distant future. Venezuela produced ~25–30 Mtpa of gas in 2024, with ~54% effectively wasted (flared + vented). That’s before any oil ramp-up. The constraint is not resource; it’s infrastructure. And Golar is there to solve that problem.
Ayuso tweet mediaAyuso tweet media
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🚽 🤴JRR ToiletKing
🚽 🤴JRR ToiletKing@toiletkingcap·
When I have to alert someone (generally older) that their fly is open, I usually tell them their barn door is open. I have never shut a real barn door. I’m going to change that saying. Open to suggestions
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phoenix
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM·
@searching4value @DB_Bahn Cool, this post is automatically translated in english which proves that X has the better Ai. 😂
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searching4value
searching4value@searching4value·
Eure "KI" lebt mindestens 10min in der Vergangenheit 😂 @DB_Bahn
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Hugo Navarro
Hugo Navarro@HugoNavarroPer2·
I think I’ve reached the peak of my professional career. My meme made it to the CEO of Fairfax—and he even used it at the company’s AGM. What more can an investor ask for?
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Premski_SG
Premski_SG@Premski_SGP·
@GoldForecast imagine Altyn dropping their gold mine and becoming AI Gold
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phoenix me-retweet
Pavel | Robuxio
Pavel | Robuxio@PKycek·
Trading is hard. Larry Benedict has over 40 years of trading experience, featured in Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards series. His hedge fund made $95 million during the 2008 crisis, and he was ranked in the top 1% by Barron’s. He launched ETF just a few months ago. It is now down 43%.
Pavel | Robuxio tweet media
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phoenix
phoenix@Phoenix_FFM·
Sometimes markets are very efficient. The analysts have been incredibly precise here. That is the level of skill you are playing against if you are trying to beat the market in large caps.
FinancialJuice@financialjuice

Charles Schwab Q1 2026 Earnings $SCHW EPS $1.37 vs. 99c y/y Adj EPS $1.43, est. $1.39 Net rev. $6.48b, est. $6.51 Net interest revenue $3.14b, est. $3.2b Net interest margin 2.88%, est. 2.94% 1Q bank deposits $253b, est. $245.19b Core net new assets $140b Total client assets $11.77t, est. $11.86t Total client assets +19% New brokerage accounts 1.3m, est. 1.19m

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Jelajahi

@memyselfandi006 @nevergr33dy @ClarkSquareCap @toiletkingcap @ChrisTayeh @leevalueroach @AyusoValue @elonmusk