RadixRadient

@Sheldon_Sniper Tax season incoming. Sorry bro. Save this post for May. AND: there will always be pullbacks on the way

anyone else smelling a big bullish return ? feels like a disgusting pump is coming any moment now . No pull backs . No one believes it . which means its time🚀📈

@therealsrust large part of CPI is shelter....

CPI above expectations (3%) ⚠️ Bad news, inflation is still OUT OF CONTROL. The BLS methodology changed this month. Let's see how this will affect the coming months.

@fejau_inc and probably a significant percentage of CAD can't stay competitive anymore

Need to see something: When the US government implements tariffs, who is paying it? Us companies that are buying Canadian things Canadian companies selling things to us companies

@adamtaggart @DariusDale42 "later this year" is important to highlight.

Analyst @DariusDale42 has been spookily accurate in his market forecasts over recent years After two years of extreme bullishness, he now thinks odds are high he'll become a "raging bear" later this year due to market correction risks Why? Find out: youtu.be/KoTgT5_3_Ng

@Adam_XRD @radixdlt For me personally it's exciting to see big players and partners behind a project. Community efforts are unfortunately not enough anymore, the industry is too mature. The fact that trading volume is still in the low millions shows the lack of strong players very clear

@RadixRadient @radixdlt What narratives are you most excited about at the moment?

Don't overthink it. @radixdlt = good

@Adam_XRD @radixdlt It's clearly AI currently. Don't know how short living that is, but at least it dominates this cycle. expensiv blockspace is not issue anymore. Scaleability is expected from new L1s (although the market seems currently that 5fig TPS is ok 🤷‍♂️)

@criptopaul Don't think a "hard reset" is a feasible option with this amount of debt in the system. I guess it needs to be more like a gradual way out, where the US will be pretty strong compared to the rest of the world. There are some countries which will get rekt in the process

What Happens if the Only Solution Is a New Economic Reset Caused by a Crash? A crash could serve as a “hard reset” to restructure the foundations of the global economy, eliminating excessive debt and bringing markets back to a more sustainable path. However, the short-term consequences for both traditional and crypto markets would be devastating, with opportunities for rebuilding available only to those who have preserved liquidity and managed their risk prudently. In such a context, DOGE, as paradoxical as it may seem, could become a symbol of resilience and revival in a destabilized market.

People are so emotional that they cannot see the nuances beyond black and white, which is why I’m cautious here. The 4-Year Cycle Theory is Still Valid but:👇

@TraderMagus sure, but there are different of thesis out there what matters in the long term. Some more plausible than others. I tend to follow one where rates actually don't matter too much

@RadixRadient even the guy that determines rates cant predict them

Trying to be smart is for stupid people Few will understand this

@fejau_inc @plur_daddy how does Basel 4 come into play here? Was planned to go live in the EU this month and July for the US as far as I recall. Will that create more demand for Treasuries? I suppose so...

i had those ideas wrapped into my idea of easing. but idk, that could get hairy and spook bond holders. If they come in to try and buy the long end it could quickly become YCC and get forced to buy a shit ton at a given yield. What do you think? think they could tamp down yields with just a quick temporary QE operation or would they get stuck in a loop fighting bond sellers?

@fejau_inc Shouldn't they do some kind of curve control instead? Ending QT and buying long end to stabilize the market

@dampedspring @fejau_inc and while doing so, bring enough liquidity into markets to not cause refinancing issues

@fejau_inc Fed has to outhawk the bond market or else the bond market will do it for them.

The scary part is that any sort of Fed easing in light of this recent bond yield move would probably just make bond yields soar even higher The antidote is the poison

@plur_daddy @fejau_inc If the FED buys the long end yield is ending up at the FED and not in the private sector. With less cash in the system the value of cash increases => inflation goes down => risk assets go down on the other hand all the new debt ends up in the system as well countering the above

Interesting question, the crux would be the feedback loop between the Fed buying and it creating more pressure on the long end by elevating inflation expectations. Wide range of views on whether QE is genuinely inflationary or not. But if Fed is credible in saying they will do "whatever it takes", should tame it in short to medium term at least, and comes to roost later when inflation pressure worse

@MacroAlf and we might see more Ether Rocks being sold for ridiculous amounts before the bumpy ride of 2025 ends the crypto rocket explodes in all sorts of colors. enjoy the fireworks

We are in the part of the macro cycle where rates are trying to test the 5% (!) area and the USD is strong as hell. But people are interested in CryptoDickButts, MicroStrategy and unprofitable companies. Got it. Makes sense.

@Globalflows not sure what kind of storm you mean when looking at ISM and global money supply which will most likely keep increasing the storm will take risk assets higher. it'll drop them a bit later though... end of 2025? ... 2026? ... we will see

Everything has been laid out A storm is coming

@MichaelAArouet is a rising GDP really a great achievement when the debt levels are rising even more? ... asking for a friend

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@Globalflows 2025 will again be a whole year. I guess H1 will be totally different from H2, don't you think?

2025 is going to be 🔥

@criptopaul Would be great for the US, rest of the world would probably get rekt

@ces921 will that be an issue in the next few years? If not... there's plenty of time to figure that out. Until then the house of cards can grow

One of the issues with the MSTR model is they really don't have the ability to buy back their own shares when they trade at a discount to NAV. They don't really generate enough free cash flow from their existing business to buy shares back and if they are not willing to sell Bitcoin ever, there is a flaw in the design of the model. The asymmetry will eventually hurt them. We see this in shipping a lot where stocks trade at multiples or discounts to NAV and good CEOs/capital allocators (like STNG) will be smart buyers of their stock when discount to NAV is there and will sell a lot of stock when premium to NAV is high but MSTR seems to be operating with one arm tied behind their back unless they come up with a plan to buy their own shares back at eventual discounts to NAV. Unless Saylor is going to do that from his PA