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Noodles
22.9K posts
Noodles
@criptopaul
Geopolitical and macro cycle analyst. Founder @NoodlesResearch. I connect the dots others miss.
Katılım Haziran 2017
2.5K Takip Edilen106.1K Takipçiler
14 days ago I wrote that Trump was engineering blame insurance: create the offer, engineer the refusal, escalate with clean hands.
x.com/criptopaul/sta…
Today: rejected Iran's plan Friday. Launched "Project Freedom" Sunday. Iran fired on a US frigate and a Gulf state tanker Monday. Missiles intercepted across the region.
The pattern completed itself. The ceasefire is dead. And the man who killed it will say he tried to save it.
It was all written..
Noodles@criptopaul
Trump technically lied when he announced, "I have extended the ceasefire." The power to extend a ceasefire is not unilateral. But since the press, markets, and analysts have all accepted the US framing, the perceived reality is that it has been extended…
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@ErikVoorhees Fair point on E2EE. My broader point was , your post implies all of Venice is private by default. The reality is layered. Worth mentioning.
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@criptopaul We have end to end encrypted models that are verifiable by any outsider. You don’t have to trust anyone, just math.
And you aren’t going to run Kimi K2.6 locally
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If you're getting your inference from Anthropic or OpenAI or Google, you're being captured by extractive institutions: All your data is going to them (and hackers, rogue employees, governments... both today and tomorrow)
Inference can be private.
GLM 5.1, Kimi K2.6, Deepseek V4... these models are as powerful as any frontier model from just 3 months ago, yet are open source and can be run without betraying your life and data to any 3rd party.
Point your agent to Venice for every private model in one place (plus crypto tools, web search, embeddings, image and video models...).
Could not be easier. Be intentional.
Private model access below 👇
Garry Tan@garrytan
The goal of Personal AI: civilization where individual humans, augmented by AI, can do consequential work without being captured by extractive institutions. Freedom to write your prompt and own your data. This is the new battleground. 2034 won’t have to be like 1984.
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@satsquant Yes, not a bad choice, even though i think opus 4.6 still the best model for using Claude
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PSA for heavy Claude users.
Switch back to Opus 4.6 with extended thinking. Seriously.
Opus 4.7 uses a new tokenizer that consumes up to 35% more tokens for the same input. Same listed price, higher effective cost. Adaptive thinking adds latency and verbosity without proportional quality gain on most workflows.
Documented tradeoff nobody talks about: agentic search quality actually regressed. Temperature and sampling controls? Disabled entirely. Returns a 400 error.
The benchmarks look great on paper. In daily production use, 4.6 with extended thinking remains sharper, leaner, and more controllable.
Try switching back for a week. You will feel the difference immediately.
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Anthropic chose to push capability benchmarks forward at the expense of user efficiency. More tokens burned per task, less control over model behavior, marginal real world improvement for most use cases. That is not the right tradeoff. A model upgrade should make the user’s life better, not just the spec sheet…
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Three weeks ago the most serious defense think tank in America (Institute for the Study of War + American Enterprise Institute) published the report that changes the Taiwan picture.
For the first time they state in writing that the Iran war functions as strategic cover for China. While Washington has three carriers in the Middle East and zero political bandwidth for the Pacific, Beijing accelerates: PLA Navy doubled activity in the East and South China Seas, Joint Sword exercises went from one every 24 months to one every 8, and three African states (Mauritius, Madagascar, Seychelles) coordinated to revoke overflight permissions for Taiwan's president on April 21.
What does a Taiwan quarantine mean. Not an invasion. A naval embargo. China announces "enhanced customs inspection rules", Coast Guard stops container vessels in and out, the chip supply chain locks up. No TSMC export = no chips for Nvidia, AMD, Apple. H100, Blackwell, M-series all 100% fabricated in Taiwan.
The cascade: TSMC -30/35% in two sessions. Nvidia inherits because without Taiwan it cannot produce, estimated -25/35% drawdown on discounted cashflow recalibration. SP500 follows Nvidia by index weight.
The market is pricing none of this. $SOXX implied vol back to pre-war levels, $TSMC +11% from March lows, $Nvda above 1.3T.
Buffett liquidated his entire TSMC position in 2023 when the risk was still "a consideration". He said: "I feel better about Japan than Taiwan." That was before Joint Sword 2024, before Lai Ching-te's election, before the Iran war, before the ISW-AEI report two weeks ago.
The market is pricing as if Buffett got it wrong.
The asymmetry is the trade. Long volatility SOXX July to August expiry covers the May Trump-Xi summit and the Pacific summer exercise season. This is not a directional short bet, it is ownership of a tail that costs nothing today and could be worth 5 to 10 times an Iran-on-oil event in 18 to 36 months.
Full thesis:
noodlesresearch.com/research/quara…
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Noodles retweetledi
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Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. It's that simple.
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@criptopaul @CryptoUKong @zachxbt @MemeCore_M Damn. Whole thing waiting for a collapse… how did it even get listed on @krakenfx and others??
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🤔 @zachxbt 把焦点放到 @MemeCore_M 上了。
MemeCore团队地址0x6f1f0a1ccc76d2d292249b19c19e401f0e843ba9从TGE拿到200M $M之后，就一直死死持有到现在，没有任何大额砸盘记录，也没有跑路行为。
这个地址的持仓从一开始就公开透明，链上数据谁都能查。团队用这部分代币支持生态建设、流动性提供和长期发展，而不是短期套现。
@krakenfx 在2025年7月3日上线 $M spot交易，不是随便决定的。平台完成了严格的due diligence审核，包括团队背景、代币分配、智能合约审计、流动性真实性等多项检查，才正式开放交易。
MemeCore的链上痕迹从TGE到上市全程可追溯，没有隐藏操作。上市当天团队向Kraken存款地址转入5.3M $M ，是为了满足交易所流动性要求和正常交易支持，这在行业里是标准流程。
Kraken作为合规平台，不会轻易放过任何风险点。
那些被标注为可疑的7.9M美元提现，流向了18个新地址，目前持有11.7 $M ，总价值约3980万美元。
⭐️这些地址的资金用途清晰可见：
- 部分用于市场做市
- 流动性池补充
- 生态伙伴合作
- 社区激励分配
所有操作都在链上公开，没有任何混币或洗钱痕迹。
MemeCore 项目从上线以来就坚持全链上透明，任何人都能实时验证这些资金的流向和当前持有状态。
价格从早期到6B MC的增长，是市场交易和社区共识共同推动的结果，不是单方面操纵。链上流动性真实存在，成交深度和挂单数据经得起检验。
MemeCore最近分享的成就远不止launchpad 66M总成交量和InfoFi活动的几千用户。
这些数据只是冰山一角。
项目从Meme 2.0理念出发，独立构建了专属L1公链，开发了多款实用产品，包括：
- 去中心化发射平台
- 社区治理工具
- 跨链桥接模块
InfoFi活动吸引的用户是真实参与生态建设的持有者，他们在链上交互、提供流动性、参与提案。
线下活动覆盖多个城市，拉近了项目与用户的距离。每一笔资源投入都用在产品迭代和社区扩张上。
真正让人看不下去的是市场上大量其他项目。
它们只靠发推画大饼，承诺改变行业，却从来不做市、不开发产品、不维护社区、不投入真金白银建设生态。上线几天就成交清零，团队地址直接清仓跑路，社区瞬间散掉。
那些项目从头到尾就是空气币套路，价格崩盘后没人再提，因为大家早就知道它们活不过一个月。
MemeCore 从TGE到现在，项目一步一个脚印推进L1主网升级、产品上线、合作伙伴接入，共识一点点建立起来。
价格上涨靠的是实际使用场景和铁杆持有者共同支持。现在因为敢实干、敢冲高，反而成了被重点盯防的对象。
MemeCore的共识不是靠短期炒作堆出来的。团队从第一天就选择长期主义，把资源砸在技术开发、用户教育和生态扩展上。即使面对外部噪音，项目依然保持产品迭代节奏，流动性持续优化，用户活跃度稳步提升。
6B MC的市值反映了市场对 MemeCore 真实价值的认可，不是操纵结果。
那些只知道躺平等死的项目，从来没有经历过这样的质疑，因为它们压根没有值得质疑的建设过程。
MemeCore在每一次外部压力下都变得更稳固，持有者也越来越坚定。
项目未来还会继续推进L1生态扩展，推出更多实用工具，扩大全球社区覆盖。所有链上数据和进展都会保持公开，欢迎任何人独立验证。
MemeCore不是靠一两条推文就能被定义的快餐项目，是真正把Meme文化和实用区块链结合起来的长期建设者。价格波动是市场常态，但底层共识和产品价值不会因为外部声音就改变。
支持MemeCore的社区成员一直用实际行动证明了这一点。他们持有代币、参与治理、贡献内容、传播项目理念。
这种铁杆共识是任何FUD都无法动摇的，用事实回应所有质疑。
$M 的路还很长，建设不会停步。
@MemeCore_M
@MemeCore_ORG
ZachXBT@zachxbt
@MemeCore_M @Grayscale Officially recognized on @ZachXBT ! We’re just getting started. Please provide a single data point to support your $6B mkt cap at a top 20 token and why insiders hold >90% of supply.
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So a simpler way to read this case, for anyone who skimmed the technical thread.
MemeCore launched with a 100% pre-mine to a single wallet, then routed the entire 5 billion supply into 5 wallets matching their tokenomics categories, then routed those into 5 lock contracts controlled by 3 keys, all funded by the same person on the same day, with zero waiting period to move funds. The “decentralized lockup” is one operator with three accounts.
Their L1 chain produces a block every 7 seconds and earns 30 M per block in validator rewards. That’s roughly 370,000 M emitted daily, around $1.5M/day at current prices, all going to 7 validators that were funded with 0.1 M each by the same wallet that holds the genesis pre-mine. The validators have never staked the 7 million M minimum the protocol claims to require. 99.99% short of the disclosed staking threshold.
The chain has 0.2 transactions per second. Every observable transaction comes from one bot funded by the Community allocation. Remove the bot and the chain has no organic activity.
Between primary timelocks, secondary timelocks, batch distributions to 14 inactive wallets, and bridge wrapping to BSC, the team controls or has just released over 90% of total supply.
The price chart and the $6B market cap reflect a thin order book ($531K depth) and 75x leverage futures sitting on top. None of it reflects organic market consensus. It reflects what happens when one operator owns the supply, writes the order book, runs the chain, and earns the inflation.
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Several factual issues with this defense:
1) The address 0x6f1f0a1c… did not “hold from TGE.” It was seeded on 2025-03-28 (the day timelock contracts were deployed) with 10 M from another signer, received an additional 100 M from a second signer, then received 257,200,000 M from the Community secondary timelock between June-August 2025, and transferred 257,200,009 M to the Merlin bridge minter for BSC wrapping. Verifiable on memecorescan.io.
2) The 5 primary timelocks share 3 common signers, threshold 2-of-3, minimum delay 0 seconds. Two of those signers were seeded by the third on the day the timelocks were deployed. None of this is in MemeCore’s published tokenomics.
3) Two of the 5 timelocks have wrapped their releases into a second timelock layer with identical bytecode and signers (0x74696d9e… and 0x5684078c…). This second layer is not disclosed in any MemeCore documentation reviewed.
4) The Community allocation EOA (0xbe161c…) transferred 220,391,616 M to the same hub signer on 2025-02-07, who five weeks later funded the operator of the chain’s keepalive bot. That bot has produced 8,204,041 zero-value transactions to date and accounts for effectively all observable transaction activity on the L1.
5) On the L1 itself: the protocol documentation describes 7 validators each staking a minimum of 7,000,000 M (49M aggregate). On-chain, the 7 active validators were funded with 0.1 M each by a single source within a 107-second window on 2025-01-15. Their current aggregate balance is 4,097 M against the disclosed 49,000,000 M minimum. Shortfall 99.99%. The validator management contract holds 9,118,428 M. This is a centralized validator setup presented as a decentralized L1.
6) The team’s defense is that the 7.9M USD in withdrawals went to “market making, liquidity, partners, incentives.” None of these claims are matched by destination labels for the 14 fresh wallets receiving 407.5M M across batches on 2025-07-02 (300M to 6 wallets in 17 minutes), 2025-08-26 (100M to 5 wallets in 4 minutes), and 2025-09-05 (7.5M to 3 wallets).
“Public on-chain trace” requires acknowledging what’s on-chain. The above is on-chain. Chain id 4352 on memecorescan.io.
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Here we go again.
Reassuring news of a meeting in Islamabad over the weekend, before market close, only to be immediately denied after markets closed.
Noodles@criptopaul
Trump technically lied when he announced, "I have extended the ceasefire." The power to extend a ceasefire is not unilateral. But since the press, markets, and analysts have all accepted the US framing, the perceived reality is that it has been extended…
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@bitget @MemeCore_M -$6B market cap
-$52K liquidity onchain
-$40K trading campaign rewards
???
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Bitget Trading Club Championship – Exclusive for $M @MemeCore_M traders!
Trade M to win a share of 40,000 USDT, 250 winning spots in total.
🗓 Apr 22, 16:00 – Apr 29, 16:00 (UTC)
Join here: bitget.com/launchhub/trad…
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Noodles retweetledi
@Arifxt10 @brelgino I provided multiple pieces of evidence showing the token valuation is fake (>90% insider concentration, 40K onchain liquidity, unusual spot transfers, etc)
Cannot force exchanges to take further action…..
ZachXBT@zachxbt
Why did Kraken list $M (Memecore) on July 3, 2025 for spot and how did it pass due diligence? $7.9M in suspicious Kraken withdrawals to 18 newly created addresses with 11.7 $M sitting total (valued at $39.8M now). Insiders have manipulated the price to $6B market cap ($18B FDV) and Kraken is one of the few venues that supports $M spot. In recent posts the only achievement the team has shared is $66M total volume on a launchpad and thousands of “users” from its incentivized InfoFi campaigns. Suspected Memecore team address 0x6f1f0a1ccc76d2d292249b19c19e401f0e843ba9 (received 200M M at TGE) sent 5.3M $M to Kraken deposit addresses on July 3, 2025 0xaa1f9fa46177aca98f5f433d88fe6d21d029c4a6 & 0x0ca854724259770a62dd623b6e9bce0151c79fa7 Kraken withdrawal addresses 0x4207e505c0dbab1e0d80a76a9ed42ef7b12bea17 0xba64b15f8afb9316b656ebdc19463786f33792d2 0x71dc4397b40055432be9f0e904681b151bec6eb0 0xacd7ec923efc5ff10ba1ddbe521b1a5536a1d70a 0x75ac45467d7df5bff47139af3887e408005ef637 0xfe28d786f007a5d5abd46e447e5758a20916a7d6 0x81475797b4b5d930a115ecd85a2c36cbc956a4f0 0x79d4411bba21289bb728f35221478e1b4eda1c96 0xdb0b0ab84b7e688db809379e8e8e70c020f7d0b2 0x94044c87aee7433725c13798816ab751ef6db9d7 0x7ca8c28c5e4e61c54ecf2631a43e37f88c589d61 0x067c40852576438c81b3649d8fec3d8d7ab27208 0xe2ef6d412a60a91af4e4f37db3efb6971099d98b 0x2c0365ef67c20cc9177e004b43a2d51ace28b5cb 0xaeee0e6b84e24431c1cf1424322e318debc67974 0x45039d2c98a3c7c1e2593dda1e77360e335c5aca 0x0b38bb1558f63c2b36382edd2385674b07697c59 0xff4cd9c291379a72e9efa3ee0f8e10ab51601575
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@EricTrump @ABTC Another incredible milestone to make Trump family rich!
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Another incredible milestone for American Bitcoin! Very proud of what we are building @ABTC 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Coin Bureau@coinbureau
🚨NEW: ERIC TRUMP’S ABTC BOOSTS MINING CAPACITY TO SCALE BTC ACCUMULATION Eric Trump-linked American Bitcoin has deployed 11,298 additional ASICs, expanding its mining capacity by 12% to 89,242 machines.
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People think I enjoy being bearish. That it’s a hobby, a personality trait.
It’s not.
Every serious investor knows: real money is made in bull markets. That’s exactly why we built the Noodles Terminal. To identify the historical patterns that signal when to position, not guess.
For now, the metrics are clear. This is our first dedicated crypto research piece:
noodlesresearch.com/research/btc-p…
Early access to the Terminal is open:
noodlesresearch.com
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