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On January 9th, we wrote that Greenland was theater. That the real target was Iran. And that oil would cross $100.
Brent was trading below $70. Nobody was talking about Tehran.
Five months later: the largest air campaign in Middle East history, the Strait of Hormuz closed since February 28th, Brent averaging $107 in May.
And today, Trump announced the next step on Truth Social: “We will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets.”
Now read what we published in The Iran Playbook, days before his announcement:
“Phase 3: The ‘Limited’ Operation. Seizure of Qeshm Island. Possibly Kharg Island. Framed as a maritime security operation. ‘Protecting critical energy infrastructure.’ Never called an invasion.”
Word for word. The island. The framing. The vocabulary.
This is not luck. It is pattern recognition. Every American war follows the same script: a provocation, a “defensive” response, a “limited” operation that becomes permanent. Vietnam started with advisors. Iraq started with liberation. Iran is starting with an island.
An occupation that cannot be defended without escalating, and cannot be abandoned without humiliation.
This is the moment the world change. The socio-economic shockwaves of a permanent war in the Gulf will hit every economy on the planet: energy, food, shipping, inflation, debt.
America is dragging itself into a vortex with no exit. And it is dragging everyone else down with it.
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