Exclusive: * Reform has a core of 1.7million voters who identify with the party. It is far more than a protest vote. If Badenoch wants to win she can’t do it by just winning back tactical voters and disenchanted Tories - she needs to go for Reform’s support directly * Labour has endured the biggest fall ratings for any newly elected government in history, going from -26 a month after the election to -49 after six months * Labour’s vote is vulnerable on all sides. Only two thirds of those who backed Labour in 2024 remain loyal to the party while 11% would now vote for the Liberal Democrats, 10% for Reform UK, 5% for the Greens and 4% for the Tories * Over a quarter of Labour’s seats - just over 100 - have a majority of less than 10 per cent * Reform was held back by the spread of its geographical support last time - 4million votes translated into just 5 seats. But that spread could now work in it’s favour and see it make breakthroughs across the country thetimes.com/article/5f229f…
