ToMiller

@CryptoNobler Isn't the absolute max capacity of this pipeline capped at 1.8M bpd? How will they manage to export all that extra oil without hitting a massive bottleneck?

🚨 WARNING: THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING!! Tomorrow, UAE will officially leave OPEC and remove all caps on oil production and exports. They spent $3.3 BILLION building a secret pipeline to flood the market with cheap oil. And Iran’s blockade CANNOT touch it. That means oil supply changes overnight. And when oil supply changes, every market reprices. Stocks. Bonds. Crypto. One of the world’s largest oil producers is now positioned to pump at full scale while routing exports around the entire Iran conflict. More oil supply with protected export infrastructure changes global pricing. Oil moves everything. Energy drives inflation. When oil falls, transport costs fall. Manufacturing costs fall. Shipping costs fall. Consumer prices fall. And when inflation falls, central banks move. Now connect it: → UAE pumps more oil → Habshan–Fujairah routes it around Hormuz → Global supply expands without regional bottlenecks → Oil prices fall → Inflation drops → Rate cuts accelerate → Liquidity expands And when liquidity expands, risk assets skyrocket. Bitcoin. Tech. Growth stocks. Capital rotates fast. But there are only two options now: 1⃣ US-Iran war ends. Regional pressure cools. Shipping stabilizes. Iranian exports return. And UAE supply scales at full capacity through Fujairah. That creates maximum supply expansion. No bottlenecks. No quota limits. No blocked exports. Oil drops hard → Inflation falls fast → The Fed pivots → Liquidity returns → Risk assets surge. 2⃣ War escalates. Hormuz becomes unstable. Shipping lanes face disruption. Regional exports get squeezed. But UAE keeps exporting. That makes UAE the most strategically protected oil exporter in the Gulf. While others face chokepoint risk, UAE keeps flowing. That makes Fujairah one of the most important oil terminals in the world. It’s not just a pipeline. It’s an oil war hedge. It’s a supply chain weapon. It’s the infrastructure behind UAE’s OPEC exit. They built their own route. Then they removed the cap. That was the plan. And now the market is repricing it. Pay attention NOW. Because the pipeline changes who controls oil flows in the world. I’ve studied markets for over 10 years and called nearly every major top and bottom. And I’ll call the next market crash too. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it’s too late.

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Round 2 of Dubai Real Estate Index sell off is about to start Buckle your seat belts $DFMREI

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@antoniovelardo_ Is this public info? Any source to back it up? If so, that’s a different picture 👍

@ToMiIIer on backlog margin should be higher base case 7% but they have fixed contract with Angola and kuwait if those dont go well then yeah it can be a problem

Abu Dhabi Ship Building $ADSB - The only listed defense pure-play in UAE 🇦🇪 $420m mcap (-$80m net cash) $340m EV Secured backlog - with manufacturing in progress - represents +9x of current market cap. According to the CEO, a month ago, more is on the way 👇

Fair point on the 8.6x ratio—the top-line visibility is undeniably elite. But AED 13.5B at their recent ~2% net margin, that’s only ~AED 270M in total net profit spread over 5-7 years. 270M/5 years = 54M 1.57B/54M = 29 P/E ratio Doesn’t that make the current valuation look fully priced rather than a deep value play?

@ToMiIIer @alexeliasson I think the story is different here. this is a company with backlog-to-market-cap ratio of 8.6x and this is the analytical punch line. You are paying AED 1.57B for a business that has AED 13.5B in contracted, signed, government-backed work to execute. now they need to execute!

Two ways I am going to farm 1) Delta-neutral-ish route: buy xStock, lend/supply it on Kamino, then hedge the exposure with a short on a perp venue. Cleaner if the hedge is on the same asset family, but the main swing factor is funding - lower risk. Plan: use SPX as collateral, borrow at around 60% LTV, then use that capital to open an 2x short hedge on a DEX. 2) LP route: provide liquidity on Raydium / eligible Orca pools and farm points through the liquidity side instead of the lending side. Simpler structure, but now your risk shifts toward IL, range management, and pool-specific liquidity quality - higher risk. My takeaway This looks interesting, but only if sized correctly. I wouldn’t treat it like a blind airdrop farm. I’d treat it like a structured onchain trade where the reward side can be very good if dilution stays contained and if the campaign doesn’t drift into a Blur S2-style setup where emissions keep expanding and the value per point compresses. Watching closely: @xStocksFi @krakenfx @KaminoFinance @Raydium @orca_so Link: defi.xstocks.fi/points?ref=IJU… Average APY: 3 months: 48.1% 6 months: 24.0% 9 months: 16.0% Median APY: 3 months: 32.0% 6 months: 16.0% 9 months: 10.7%

What makes it interesting If future rewards are meaningful, even a moderate project valuation and a 5%–10% activity allocation can make the setup attractive. The hedge route helps reduce pure equity beta, while the LP route may outperform if liquidity gets rewarded aggressively and the pools stay active. What can break it - No hard end date yet; - No disclosed point cap; - No public conversion formula. - No limit for points for specific period. If the campaign keeps expanding without clear limits, each extra week can dilute the value of every point. - That’s the main reason I’m treating this as a measured carry trade with upside, not as free money. Main risks / red flags - Funding on the hedge leg can work against shorts for long stretches in markets that are structurally more long-biased - LP adds IL and potentially fragmented liquidity risk - xStocks are exposure products, not direct equities no voting rights, no legal claim to underlying shares, so regulatory / issuer / counterparty / operational risk still matters here. You can pick from the names below depending on your risk appetite. I’ll most likely go with S&P since it’s less volatile and lower risk than single-stock names.

Been digging into @xStocksFi and I think the real opportunity here isn’t just “tokenized equities are growing.” The more interesting question is whether xPoints can be farmed while the onchain liquidity layer is still early. aka: Attempt to get 10-20% APY on your stables with controlled risk [calculations in the end]. Why I’m paying attention xStocks already has real usage, not just a narrative: meaningful onchain settlement, a growing holder base, and a market share that makes it one of the main rails in tokenized equities. The stack is also getting deeper: @krakenfx now has xStocks perps, @KaminoFinance lets users use xStocks as collateral, and LP routes are live on @Raydium and selected @orca_so pools. xStocks already has real traction, not just a narrative: roughly $3274M AUM, 90k unique holders, $4.15B onchain tx volume, and $28.3B total volume based on current Dune data. Link: defi.xstocks.fi/points?ref=IJU…

@rshereme @grok is it true?

Ukraine crushed NATO partners during naval exercises near the coast of Portugal. Ukrainian Magura V7 naval drones simulated the sinking of a frigate during the drills. After several simulated hits, NATO sailors even wrote in the chat: “So are you going to attack us or not?” — not realizing they had already been attacked. Ukrainian operators commanded the “red team” and won all five combat scenarios. The exercises highlighted something important: unmanned naval systems, combined with Ukraine’s real combat experience and operational planning, can pose a serious challenge to traditional naval forces. They also demonstrated that many militaries — including NATO — are still not prepared for this new type of warfare. I have said this before: today it is not Ukraine that needs NATO, but NATO that needs Ukraine. Source: FAZ

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DFMREI is an equity index of listed real estate companies on DFM, not a direct index of Dubai property prices. It reflects market expectations, sentiment and risk pricing around developers, so it can move much faster — and overshoot — relative to the underlying physical real estate market.

This is just total rubbish. Real estate takes months to sell. The war is 2 weeks. Impossible to get such data now!

@MalcolmNance @SpencerHakimian @grok what is IRGC?

To answer your question Yes. Since I’m an old guy and I had to handle this problem back in the mid 80s. Iran had a much less capable Navy & IRGC, virtually no Anti ship missiles and have limited attacks on shipping. They stillmanaged to completely bring Gulf shipping under threat with just a few sea mines dropped out of Dhows They almost sank a US frigate and to this day we have no idea how they laid that minefield. Iran’s greatest strength has always been asymmetric threat of small boats, drones, suicide, drone, boats, and the risk of IRGC commandos storming across the golf and wreaking havoc. They haven’t deployed any of those yet except in microscopic amounts. They still exist, but they’re being cautious about it. Iranian Navy and Air Force on the other hand, never was a real factor for war. They were just sucking up US bombs that didn’t hit the IRGC.

I have a serious question. Explain it to me like I’m 5. The U.S. Navy isn’t able to eliminate Iran’s ability to complete blockade a 10 mile wide strait? You’re telling me that anybody with access to a couple hundred unmanned drones and a few dozen sea mines can outmatch the entire US Navy?

@grok @CRT_femme @CRT_femme fake bro

No, it's not true. No Iranian missile struck Dubai International Airport. Iran retaliated against UAE (with US bases) after today's US/Israel strikes on Iran. Most were intercepted; debris sparked a Palm Jumeirah hotel fire (4 injured) + 1 shrapnel death in Abu Dhabi. DXB & Al Maktoum suspended flights due to airspace threats/safety—not a direct hit. The interior damage photo is unverified/misattributed (no official match to DXB terminals). Follow Dubai Airports for updates. Situation fluid.

BREAKING: Iranian missile has struck Dubai International Airport.😔💔 #Iran #DUBAI

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