imbalanced

57 posts

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@imbalanced_flow

Bergabung Şubat 2026
133 Mengikuti24 Pengikut
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imbalanced@imbalanced_flow·
The Goal and The Method.
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imbalanced@imbalanced_flow·
@wydna777 They’re narcissistic, it’s not a whimsical naïveté. They think they’re the main character, and cults look like their arc. They are self indulgent slop people.
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wydna
wydna@wydna777·
It is really funny how all these guys think they have magic rationality powers that allow them to see through everything and deduce everything from first principles, but they all constantly fall for cults. From Yud, Zizians, Aella. Rationalism entails a weird naivety
QC@QiaochuYuan

i would really prefer to never have to talk about this again in public but here goes. i was heavily involved with brent dill for a substantial chunk of 2018, when he was embedded in the bay area rationality community. based on those experiences i never want to get involved with him ever again and i highly recommend none of you ever do so either. please note that this is the strongest condemnation i have ever written publicly about anybody brent dill is basically a cult leader, and the thing he constantly does is basically attempt to start or take over cults. when he is talking to you he is constantly attempting to probe you for any psychological weaknesses he can take advantage of in order to convert you into one of his supporters. most people find him repellent but he is good at finding vulnerable people this will work on when this is happening to you, from the inside it feels like finally you've found someone who's saying things that make sense, that matter, who's bravely pointing out the elephants in the room nobody else is willing to, who is being unfairly persecuted by the popular monkeys, who's showing you all the social rot and promising in so many words that maybe, just maybe, you and him can fix it together, because you get it, right? you're not like the others. you see the truth. you're so special. or whatever. he will tailor different versions of this pitch to different people based on what he's figured out about you. the pitch includes, among other things, a sophisticated defense against any attempts to warn you about him, which look like confirmation of his persecution thesis (importantly, i'm not saying the stuff he points out is wrong, that is itself part of the trap. he pointed out a lot of things about the rationality community that were true in some sense and were part of the reason we - black lotus - were drawn to him instead. cult leaders always work like this. there is always at least a kernel of real value mixed in with the poison and demons, but it is as far as i can tell literally never worth it) getting out from under brent's manipulation and control was one of the most destabilizing experiences of my entire life and one i have spent years recovering from. the whole time i thought i was making my own choices and seeing things clearly - that i was built different - and i was essentially having my mind taken over in ways i had no idea were possible in the real world and that, if present-me were to describe them to before-i-experienced-them me, i would flat out not have believed. if you've never experienced anything like this you are blessed. i had to reconstruct my entire understanding of myself and the world from scratch because i had lost trust in everything in a very deep and fundamental way; in particular i had to reconstruct my entire understanding of good and evil because i had lost trust in my ability to discern whether anything at all was good or evil if you are the sort of person who brent has decided is worth targeting, you are not prepared to deal with somebody who's put literally all of their skill points into manipulation. in the next tweet i will link some resources that might or might not be helpful. may god have mercy on our souls

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imbalanced
imbalanced@imbalanced_flow·
@dschwarz26 The adult daycare allegations also play a role. He pays these people millions in total comp and they fail to deliver over and over. At some point he gets tired of it and says for $400 base and $600 stock you’ll do what the fuck I tell you to do and annotate the dataset.
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Dan Schwarz
Dan Schwarz@dschwarz26·
There's lots of chatter on "Why is Meta running a dystopian tracking experiment on thousands of its best engineers to generate AI training data, causing them all to leave?" I think to answer this, you need a longer view of what has made Facebook successful (and not). Apple, Microsoft, and Google all built their businesses on powerful technologies. Even after their initial famous breakthroughs (apple 2, BASIC compiler, pagerank), at least once a decade they achieved something else that greatly helped their core business (ipod, windows, gmail). Facebook's story isn't like this. Their initial success wasn't technical, and their great achievements since then have largely been acquisitions. Their ads business was borrowed from Google, they almost missed mobile entirely, etc. Think from Zuckerberg's perspective. Since the IPO in 2012 he's been flush with cash, but hasn't had a core, defensible edge in any technology. He has always tried to carve one out, e.g. the Facebook phone (to avoid being dependent on Google and Apple), or buying up all rival social networks. He tried crypto (remember Libra?), robotics, and of course Oculus and VR/AR. So what's he supposed to do about AI? His first try at LLMs didn't work, orienting FAIR and other research divisions to build open Llama models. They lacked the talent and mission, and there was too much infighting. What would you do in Zuck's situation? The one thing you do have is a business generating ~$25B profit/year, and an army of tens of thousands of software engineers. You'd use them! So his second try after Llama was turning money into AI. He bid for all the LLM talent at 10x normal wages for "Superintelligence", and bought Scale AI at some absurd price. That didn't seem to work. His third try is using his other resource, his armies of good software engineers to generate a unique and defensible dataset. Yes, it's dystopian (though the "gulag" thing... these people need to read their Solzhenitsyn). Yes, he probably will lose his best engineers. But you have to grudgingly respect his conviction and his willingness to use the resources he has. What else would you expect?
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imbalanced@imbalanced_flow·
This is the modern equivalent of aristocrats paying artists to live in the castle and make bullshit. LPs pay VCs to curate these plebs and bring cachet to the LPs name. LPs are so unbelievably wealthy now, returns do not matter. It’s all for fun.
47fucb4r8curb4fc8f8r4bfic8r@47fucb4r8c69323

This industry is so fake. Can someone explain what VCs are actually doing here? This is obviously a joke company with no real product, what's the deal here?

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imbalanced@imbalanced_flow·
@macrocephalopod @grugcapital They hate this until it’s their money, then they beg the regulators to save them. If you could really identify early winners, lack of accreditation or capital would not be your issue anyway.
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cephalopodshop
cephalopodshop@macrocephalopod·
@grugcapital I've never heard anyone who wants to get rid of accredited investor rules explain how they'll prevent 99% of people get giga-adversely selected as soon as any scammer with a private company can sell shares to the public (Nikola, Farady Future, Kandi, etc...)
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imbalanced@imbalanced_flow·
@__paleologo He truly doesn’t believe he did anything wrong, I think because he physically cannot conceptualize being handed a pile of money (customer deposits) and not deploying it in a +EV way. He did the “right move”. We all know it was wrong, but he doesn’t get it. It was “correct.”
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imbalanced@imbalanced_flow·
@__paleologo Interesting to hear him say - “I can make a $10 million decision in seconds. For a $100 million I’ll need an hour. For a billion $ decision I might need some days.” It’s clear he thinks about decision making a lot.
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Gappy (Giuseppe Paleologo)
Once in a while I listen to an old SBF podcast. 1. In hindsight, could one tell he was a fraud and what are the tells? 2. Is there a trend in his style over time? 3. Who are the good interviewers who unmask him? 4. Anything interesting he says that can be salvaged?
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ak0 (semis/acc)
ak0 (semis/acc)@annanay·
At HRT they did a company-wide presentation analyzing the P&L-to-sophistication ratio of every trading firm, and SIG was right at the very top lmao
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imbalanced@imbalanced_flow·
@taobanker He was built for a world where you could literally scream into a phone “I’m a buyer at 110” and that means you now have price time priority in that market and you enforce it by screaming at another man on a physical floor somewhere “it’s my market” if he tries to take an offer.
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imbalanced@imbalanced_flow·
@A_Absol_Enjoyer @ramit Needing to manage your personal finances using the techniques of late stage capitalism (accounting, managing investments, etc) is incredibly political. It is a state of affairs that was literally designed and implemented via politics. You could broaden your thinking a lot.
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Absolutely
Absolutely@A_Absol_Enjoyer·
@ramit You can talk about finances without getting into politics. There's nothing political about teaching someone fiscal responsibility. Judging by your books you talk about the reality of things and how to work in the system and now you're trying to influence politics?
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Ramit Sethi
Ramit Sethi@ramit·
I cannot emphasize how stupid you must be to willfully believe there is a "non political" side of money including taxes, healthcare, housing, childcare, water rights, energy costs, the CFPB, school lunches, interest rates, tariffs, mortgage interest deductions, and medical debt
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imbalanced@imbalanced_flow·
@TheNotoriousSKi The VP of Eng was a low tier web dev and did some blockchain work (toy problems). They are cooked.
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SKi🦉
SKi🦉@TheNotoriousSKi·
Polymarket just rolled out some broken parlay system that is crashing the website 4 hours before the World Cup starts Absolutely hopeless. This team is so lost What happened to the post mortem we were supposed to get after that PK leak? Or any comments RE: MicroStrategy market?
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imbalanced@imbalanced_flow·
@AlexanderTw33ts The last thing a small Asian girl in SF sees before getting offered $2 mil total comp as an EA at Anthropic.
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Alex
Alex@AlexanderTw33ts·
hey! just checking in to make sure you're using the new model safely
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imbalanced@imbalanced_flow·
@orrdavid Thanks for sharing David good luck.
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David Orr
David Orr@orrdavid·
I'm in a particularly bad drawdown in my hedge fund partition, -24% before fees or -18% after fees (I have to report both numbers for compliance reasons). I'm personally around flat YTD now. This year I've been leaning far more into diversifying factors, like global low volatility stocks. This because the hedge fund is multimanager now and the other PMs don't have that same exposure/risk. Without doing that, I might be in more like a 15-18% drawdown instead. That's still bad, but basically in line with my past bad drawdowns. Fortunately, this model is working and the fund level is still performing well YTD (+18% net of fees). When I zoom out and look at the market environment, being flat YTD is I guess not bad. This has been a particularly bad environment for what I do. I did a couple degrossing / risk management moves on my way down already. Each time I do this it locks in a 1%. However, if I hadn't done this voluntarily, I would be in a much worse drawdown right now and have been forced to degross anyway, which would have increased greatly the long term loss being locked in. I think my job through this is to survive. To keep risk managing. To probably degross even a bit more than normal given the persistance of this move. And then just keep planning and be ready to attack when the time comes.
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imbalanced@imbalanced_flow·
@DonbasDIY @JamesSurowiecki The techno oligarchs have wormed the internet so deep into everyone’s brains, we can’t go back until we forget how to make electricity. Democracy unguided by elites and instead mediated by viral propaganda is a failure. Fallen indeed.
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Donbas Samizdat (Донбасс Самиздат)
@JamesSurowiecki These MAGtards will believe anything as long as it fits in their narrow world views. Reality is dismissed & expertise is considered "Leftist lies". They are the biggest threat to American society in its 250 year history. Unfortunately there is no fixing this. America has fallen
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James Surowiecki
James Surowiecki@JamesSurowiecki·
This post has completely made-up numbers and a totally false claim about only Pratt voters being asked to cure their ballots, and it doesn't matter because RWers on Twitter are happy to credulously (or consciously) retweet lies that suit their political biases.
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jimmy
jimmy@miktok_·
Market makers (Jane street and Wintermute) plant spies in popular “alpha groups” who’s job is to monitor sentiment and positioning, and generate liquidity for certain tickers. That’s why there’s always a guy who’s shorting the first leg of the next crime coin
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ONAN
ONAN@ONAN_OUS·
Person at the party yday showed a pic of a car they saw in Japan. ‘Japanese are perverts, why do they put hentai girls on their car’ Told her ‘that is art, in Japan it’s called「itasha」you gaijin wouldn’t understand. besides, that’s Hatsune Miku, a singer, she doesn’t do porn’
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imbalanced
imbalanced@imbalanced_flow·
@barbarismcrit That’s not capitalism, that’s markets and the underlying infrastructure. Banks, bubbles, loans, interest, markets, businesses, farms, all existed literally hundreds or thousands of years before capitalism.
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barbarism critic
barbarism critic@barbarismcrit·
Gotta say capitalism is remarkably fucking resilient. This country is about to mint a trillionaire. There’s mass unemployment and the price of everything is sky high. Higher education is out of reach for all but the few while mass layoffs are happening everywhere. The entire stock market is a giant bubble of fake incestuous capital. And yet day to day life chugs along. It’s really mind bending.
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