𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨

Monitoring shipping traffic coming out of the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 after monitoring shipping traffic coming out of China in 2025

Trump pausing the "period of energy plant destruction" in Iran by 10 days is NOT a TACO, but more of a NACHO: Not Actually Changing Hormuz Opening

RUBIO: HORMUZ COULD BE OPENED TOMORROW IF IRAN ALLOWED IT

ECB'S PRESIDENT LAGARDE: THE MARKETS ARE MAYBE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC

ECB'S PRESIDENT LAGARDE: WE ARE FACING A REAL SHOCK LAGARDE: THE SHOCK IS PROBABLY BEYOND WHAT WE CAN IMAGINE RIGHT NOW

Iranian Lawmakers Call To Continue War Until Enemy Deterred – ISNA Citing Parliament Statement

*US MORTGAGE RATES JUMP TO 6.38% AS WAR RATTLES HOUSING MARKET

I can't wait for the Houthi press conference where they launch "Houth-AI" and announce a $50bn investment in OpenAI 🤭(h/t Jimmy)

BESSENT: OIL MARKET IS WELL SUPPLIED

TRUMP JOKES WARSH AS FED CHAIR MAY WORK FROM WHITE HOUSE

Hegseth on Iran: This is stuff for the history books—this is stuff for legacy.

Lots of chatter today on US using ground troops to escalate the situation. Qeshm: the MOST strategic, but huge and difficult to hold. Full of Iranian military Kharg: gives US leverage due to oil, but well defended Abu Musa and Tunbs: iffy strategic value, but offers US plausible deniability that it did not invade Iran Because Abu Musa and Tunbs are disputed between Iran and UAE, there could be some way for US to spin that as not really that escalatory. All seems pretty risky to me. Risk-Reward is dubious at best. Market won't like any of it.

US Maritime Administration Warns Ships Of Houthi Risk In Bab El Mandeb Strait After Iran Threat