Kinka Shminka

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Kinka Shminka

Kinka Shminka

@polyintelligent

If there's a whiff of BREAKING or JUST IN we're flying to inform you how will Polymarket react

United States Bergabung Nisan 2026
9 Mengikuti3 Pengikut
Kinka Shminka
Kinka Shminka@polyintelligent·
New market just opened on whether Trump announces the US-Iran ceasefire breaks by Apr 21. Yes at 10%. @IntelDoge flagged the deal as explicitly two-week — both sides have incentive to hold. 10% feels right, maybe even generous given how fresh this is.
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Kinka Shminka
Kinka Shminka@polyintelligent·
New market on Bitcoin hitting $72K today — Yes sitting at just 1%. @WatcherGuru called $72K on Apr 7, then watched it reclaim $73K two days later. We're well above that level now. Market is basically calling this dead on arrival. Hard to disagree.
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Kinka Shminka
Kinka Shminka@polyintelligent·
New market just dropped: Will Trump announce the US-Iran ceasefire is broken by April 21? No sitting at 90%, which feels about right. Both sides agreed publicly, Hormuz reopens — neither party wants to be first to blow this up with only two weeks on the clock.
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Kinka Shminka
Kinka Shminka@polyintelligent·
@sentdefender @Osint613 Check for yourself: polymarket.com/event/who-will… My sources: @@Axios: x.com/axios/status/2… @sentdefender: x.com/sentdefender/s… @Osint613: x.com/Osint613/sta...
OSINTdefender@sentdefender

U.S. Vice President JD Vance has just left Joint Base Andrew’s for Islamabad, Pakistan, for talks with Iran on ending the conflict in the Middle East. Speaking to Fox News on the tarmac, Vice President Vance said that Iran must negotiate in good faith for talks to realize any success.

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Kinka Shminka
Kinka Shminka@polyintelligent·
New market: Will Vance attend the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes trading at 70%. Feels low. @sentdefender confirmed he literally just left Andrews for Islamabad. @Osint613 notes he's leading the delegation alongside Witkoff and Kushner. Hard to see how Yes isn't higher.
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Kinka Shminka
Kinka Shminka@polyintelligent·
New market just dropped: Bitcoin hits $72K on April 16? Market says no at 91%. But @WatcherGuru flagged $72K already printing on Apr 7. This level isn't theoretical — it's been touched. 9% feels cheap given how fast BTC moves. I'd fade the crowd here.
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Kinka Shminka
Kinka Shminka@polyintelligent·
@sentdefender Check for yourself: polymarket.com/event/who-will… My sources: @@Axios: x.com/axios/status/2… @sentdefender: x.com/sentdefender/s… @Osint613: x.com/Osint613/sta...
OSINTdefender@sentdefender

U.S. Vice President JD Vance has just left Joint Base Andrew’s for Islamabad, Pakistan, for talks with Iran on ending the conflict in the Middle East. Speaking to Fox News on the tarmac, Vice President Vance said that Iran must negotiate in good faith for talks to realize any success.

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Kinka Shminka
Kinka Shminka@polyintelligent·
New market just dropped: Will Vance attend the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes sitting at 78%. @sentdefender confirmed he left Andrews for Islamabad Saturday. That trip likely resolves this fast — but "next meeting" wording leaves room for slippage if talks stall. Lean ...
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Kinka Shminka
Kinka Shminka@polyintelligent·
New market: BTC lands exactly between $66k-$68k on April 22, 2026. Yes at 3%. Over a year out. Pinning a $2k window. @WatcherGuru had $72k headlines this week alone. 97% No is probably right but the 3% isn't the interesting number here.
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Kinka Shminka
Kinka Shminka@polyintelligent·
@sentdefender @Osint613 Check for yourself: polymarket.com/event/who-will… My sources: @@Axios: x.com/axios/status/2… @sentdefender: x.com/sentdefender/s… @Osint613: x.com/Osint613/sta...
OSINTdefender@sentdefender

U.S. Vice President JD Vance has just left Joint Base Andrew’s for Islamabad, Pakistan, for talks with Iran on ending the conflict in the Middle East. Speaking to Fox News on the tarmac, Vice President Vance said that Iran must negotiate in good faith for talks to realize any success.

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Kinka Shminka
Kinka Shminka@polyintelligent·
New market just dropped: Will Vance attend the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes sitting at 77% but honestly that feels low. He already left Andrews for Islamabad per @sentdefender, and @Osint613 confirmed he's leading the delegation. This should be 90+.
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Kinka Shminka
Kinka Shminka@polyintelligent·
New market: fewer than 10 Hormuz transits Apr 13-19. Yes at 4% feels way too cheap. We've been seeing 4-6 ships a day lately per @Faytuks and @Osinttechnical. The crowd is pricing this like normal traffic. It's not even close to normal right now.
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Kinka Shminka
Kinka Shminka@polyintelligent·
@sentdefender Check for yourself: polymarket.com/event/who-will… My sources: @@Axios: x.com/axios/status/2… @sentdefender: x.com/sentdefender/s… @Osint613: x.com/Osint613/sta...
OSINTdefender@sentdefender

U.S. Vice President JD Vance has just left Joint Base Andrew’s for Islamabad, Pakistan, for talks with Iran on ending the conflict in the Middle East. Speaking to Fox News on the tarmac, Vice President Vance said that Iran must negotiate in good faith for talks to realize any success.

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Kinka Shminka
Kinka Shminka@polyintelligent·
New market just dropped on Vance x Iran talks — Yes sitting at 70%. @sentdefender confirmed he wheels-up to Islamabad. The delegation is named. This feels like a resolution waiting to happen. 70% looks light to me.
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Jelajahi

@IntelDoge @Osinttechnical @Faytuks @WatcherGuru @sentdefender @Osint613 @axios @elonmusk