tim | quant

I‘m a fisherman 🎣 I can tell you which lake I’m going to because experience tells me there’s a good chance of finding fish there. But once I’m there, I don’t jump into the water chasing them. I wait patiently. I don’t predict when something will bite or what kind of fish it will be. I only react when it bites. The lake is my zone of interest. OrderFlow and the reaction, for example, a swing failure pattern, are the fish on the hook: my trigger. From there, I adapt to the situation. How strong is the reaction? Is the fish worth fighting? Where is my invalidation? How much risk does the setup justify? I don’t chase. I wait, I observe, and when the market gives me a clear bite, I act. I can’t tell you the setup in advance (I don’t predict the future). But I know a good setup once I see it.

bitcoin:native Weekly Briefing, Trade Ideas & Positioning A correction of the recent upward move remains my main scenario. That said, LTF still gives legitimacy for one final push into the 84k region before a larger reversal. This area is important because multiple major resistance factors align there: • aVWAP from ATH • Volume Profile POC • Key Fib resistance zones The most important level to monitor is the Short Term Holder cost basis. Bulls need BTC to hold this level as support if they want to sustain their rally. For my bearish thesis, I want to see price break below it and then reject from it as resistance. That would significantly strengthen the downside case. My Trade ideas: I’m trading anti-cyclic in these regions. Because of that, longs currently do not interest me. More attractive long opportunities would come lower, around VWAP regions aligning with fib retracements of the recent rally. Those are also the areas where I would likely realize maximum profits on my shorts. Main setup for shorts remains a push into the 84k resistance region discussed above. For every entry, I will closely monitor LTF order flow before making a decision. Context and positioning matter more than levels alone. My positioning: I already positioned myself short and will continue scaling in according to the plan above. I’ll continue posting daily updates on scenarios, positioning & order flow analysis here on my page.

bitcoin:native Weekly Briefing, Trade Ideas & Positioning A correction of the recent upward move remains my main scenario. That said, LTF still gives legitimacy for one final push into the 84k region before a larger reversal. This area is important because multiple major resistance factors align there: • aVWAP from ATH • Volume Profile POC • Key Fib resistance zones The most important level to monitor is the Short Term Holder cost basis. Bulls need BTC to hold this level as support if they want to sustain their rally. For my bearish thesis, I want to see price break below it and then reject from it as resistance. That would significantly strengthen the downside case. My Trade ideas: I’m trading anti-cyclic in these regions. Because of that, longs currently do not interest me. More attractive long opportunities would come lower, around VWAP regions aligning with fib retracements of the recent rally. Those are also the areas where I would likely realize maximum profits on my shorts. Main setup for shorts remains a push into the 84k resistance region discussed above. For every entry, I will closely monitor LTF order flow before making a decision. Context and positioning matter more than levels alone. My positioning: I already positioned myself short and will continue scaling in according to the plan above. I’ll continue posting daily updates on scenarios, positioning & order flow analysis here on my page.

bitcoin:native Weekly Briefing, Trade Ideas & Positioning A correction of the recent upward move remains my main scenario. That said, LTF still gives legitimacy for one final push into the 84k region before a larger reversal. This area is important because multiple major resistance factors align there: • aVWAP from ATH • Volume Profile POC • Key Fib resistance zones The most important level to monitor is the Short Term Holder cost basis. Bulls need BTC to hold this level as support if they want to sustain their rally. For my bearish thesis, I want to see price break below it and then reject from it as resistance. That would significantly strengthen the downside case. My Trade ideas: I’m trading anti-cyclic in these regions. Because of that, longs currently do not interest me. More attractive long opportunities would come lower, around VWAP regions aligning with fib retracements of the recent rally. Those are also the areas where I would likely realize maximum profits on my shorts. Main setup for shorts remains a push into the 84k resistance region discussed above. For every entry, I will closely monitor LTF order flow before making a decision. Context and positioning matter more than levels alone. My positioning: I already positioned myself short and will continue scaling in according to the plan above. I’ll continue posting daily updates on scenarios, positioning & order flow analysis here on my page.

Binance top traders are positioned at levels similar to previous ATH regions. That doesn’t guarantee a top. But it does tell you one thing clearly: Positioning is already extremely crowded. Every trader should be aware of this.

Binance top traders are positioned at levels similar to previous ATH regions. That doesn’t guarantee a top. But it does tell you one thing clearly: Positioning is already extremely crowded. Every trader should be aware of this.

Binance top traders are positioned at levels similar to previous ATH regions. That doesn’t guarantee a top. But it does tell you one thing clearly: Positioning is already extremely crowded. Every trader should be aware of this.

Binance top traders are positioned at levels similar to previous ATH regions. That doesn’t guarantee a top. But it does tell you one thing clearly: Positioning is already extremely crowded. Every trader should be aware of this.

‼️ Every trader should understand this: Liquidity is a price target - not a time factor!! Just because liquidity exists somewhere does NOT mean price has to go there immediately. If you’re looking at multi-year liquidity, then it’s a multi-year target. Right now, in this rally, liquidity is clearly stacked below us. Understanding liquidity in the context of time is one of the biggest refinements a trader can make.

$BTC A lot of you are confused and might be thinking, where are we in this range. Are we going up to 90-100k ?? Or we going down to 60-70k ?? Well if you check the basic common confluences that almost everyone use or is getting to know these days, Like simple patterns, as BTC never closing 3 green monthly candles or just previous cycle fractals. They tell you that we are going lower, the range is definitely expanding longer than expected but that doesn't automatically invalidate them. Though the actual confluence that you should use to get the right idea of where we are going now is Liquidity. Ik most of you might be already convinced that the max pain is on the upside cuz everyone is targeting 84k, right ? But that also means that we can just simply frontrun 84k and dump early. If you compare the current market sentiments with the previous range (97k), Everyone was calling for 102k-104k, infact some people even said 110k lol, Every big influencer was flipping to longs and was targeting higher and naturally their audience followed what their "influencer" trader was doing. EXACT SAME THING is happening rn, I have been telling this from a week now, that the top is close. But people still tend to follow the upside bias, EVEN THOUGH THEY THEMSELVES KNOW THAT THE LIQUIDITY IS COMPLETELY SKEWED TO THE DOWNSIDE OF THE RANGE. I don't really care if they are targeting 100k or even ATH, I am swing short and currently doing a 1K-2K challenge in my Discord as well. Bookmark this post if you don't believe what I am about to say, We are gonna be sitting below 70k by MAY end or Early JUNE and potentially SUB 60k in ~2 months.

$BTC Markets are getting dangerously comfortable here. In previous analysis I positioned short. So far, that managed to catch the local top quite well. Still, we need to stay careful here. The recent move down was mainly a long liquidation event. You can clearly see it in the Open Interest breakdown. Now during consolidation, CVD is starting to rise again. That suggests buyers are slowly stepping back in. The market is rebuilding strength for its next move. I remain short-sided overall. But on the LTF, another push higher is absolutely legitimate from an order flow perspective. 84k remains the key resistance zone. That’s where we have confluence from: • VWAP • Volume Profile POC • 0.618 Fib retracement Strong resistance cluster. That said, this confluence alone is not enough for me to long here. It’s simply an important risk note for shorts.

$BTC Markets are getting dangerously comfortable here. In previous analysis I positioned short. So far, that managed to catch the local top quite well. Still, we need to stay careful here. The recent move down was mainly a long liquidation event. You can clearly see it in the Open Interest breakdown. Now during consolidation, CVD is starting to rise again. That suggests buyers are slowly stepping back in. The market is rebuilding strength for its next move. I remain short-sided overall. But on the LTF, another push higher is absolutely legitimate from an order flow perspective. 84k remains the key resistance zone. That’s where we have confluence from: • VWAP • Volume Profile POC • 0.618 Fib retracement Strong resistance cluster. That said, this confluence alone is not enough for me to long here. It’s simply an important risk note for shorts.

$BTC Markets are getting dangerously comfortable here. In previous analysis I positioned short. So far, that managed to catch the local top quite well. Still, we need to stay careful here. The recent move down was mainly a long liquidation event. You can clearly see it in the Open Interest breakdown. Now during consolidation, CVD is starting to rise again. That suggests buyers are slowly stepping back in. The market is rebuilding strength for its next move. I remain short-sided overall. But on the LTF, another push higher is absolutely legitimate from an order flow perspective. 84k remains the key resistance zone. That’s where we have confluence from: • VWAP • Volume Profile POC • 0.618 Fib retracement Strong resistance cluster. That said, this confluence alone is not enough for me to long here. It’s simply an important risk note for shorts.