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tim | quant
97 posts
tim | quant
@quantlibrary
german swing trader | orderflow analyst | quantitative trading
London Katılım Ekim 2025
30 Takip Edilen68 Takipçiler
@misterrcrypto from an orderflow perspective this aligns. major resistance at the upper wedge
x.com/quantlibrary/s…
tim | quant@quantlibrary
📊 Multi-timeframe $BTC Orderflow: LTF: Demand is still present. Spot CVD continues to rise with price. We’re trading inside a volume imbalance. There’s room to push higher. 84k is the key target. Next major POC sits there. Also worth noting: VWAP anchored from ATH aligns with that region. First major resistance overhead. MTF: The rally is starting to overheat. RSI in overheated territory. Open Interest now above ATH levels. Late longs continue to pile in. Positioning is getting crowded. Conclusion: Short-term strength is still there. But structurally, conditions are weakening. I’m positioned short here. A shift in direction looks increasingly likely.
English
Bitcoin is at a critical point here.
If we break above this resistance on the weekly, this rising wedge will be invalidated.
If not… we’re likely heading lower.
English
@TedPillows i think the faith of this move will be decided by what btc is doing next.
In my analysis I covered the short term scenario which validates a further push.
x.com/quantlibrary/s…
tim | quant@quantlibrary
📊 Multi-timeframe $BTC Orderflow: LTF: Demand is still present. Spot CVD continues to rise with price. We’re trading inside a volume imbalance. There’s room to push higher. 84k is the key target. Next major POC sits there. Also worth noting: VWAP anchored from ATH aligns with that region. First major resistance overhead. MTF: The rally is starting to overheat. RSI in overheated territory. Open Interest now above ATH levels. Late longs continue to pile in. Positioning is getting crowded. Conclusion: Short-term strength is still there. But structurally, conditions are weakening. I’m positioned short here. A shift in direction looks increasingly likely.
English
@MaxCrypto Short term this can be good for btc.
exactly aligns with my analysis. doesnt change anything for the longer timeframe tho.
x.com/quantlibrary/s…
tim | quant@quantlibrary
📊 Multi-timeframe $BTC Orderflow: LTF: Demand is still present. Spot CVD continues to rise with price. We’re trading inside a volume imbalance. There’s room to push higher. 84k is the key target. Next major POC sits there. Also worth noting: VWAP anchored from ATH aligns with that region. First major resistance overhead. MTF: The rally is starting to overheat. RSI in overheated territory. Open Interest now above ATH levels. Late longs continue to pile in. Positioning is getting crowded. Conclusion: Short-term strength is still there. But structurally, conditions are weakening. I’m positioned short here. A shift in direction looks increasingly likely.
English
🚨 BREAKING 🚨
Oil just dropped to $98/barrel after President Trump announced to pause "Project Freedom".
This is good for stocks and crypto.
English
@AshCrypto This pump could be good short term for $BTC as well. I covered the short term scenario in my analysis and it shows that there is still potential to the upside.
x.com/quantlibrary/s…
tim | quant@quantlibrary
📊 Multi-timeframe $BTC Orderflow: LTF: Demand is still present. Spot CVD continues to rise with price. We’re trading inside a volume imbalance. There’s room to push higher. 84k is the key target. Next major POC sits there. Also worth noting: VWAP anchored from ATH aligns with that region. First major resistance overhead. MTF: The rally is starting to overheat. RSI in overheated territory. Open Interest now above ATH levels. Late longs continue to pile in. Positioning is getting crowded. Conclusion: Short-term strength is still there. But structurally, conditions are weakening. I’m positioned short here. A shift in direction looks increasingly likely.
English
PUMP:
$1,120,000,000,000 added to Gold and Silver in the past 9 hours.
English
📊 Multi-timeframe $BTC Orderflow:
LTF:
Demand is still present.
Spot CVD continues to rise with price.
We’re trading inside a volume imbalance.
There’s room to push higher.
84k is the key target.
Next major POC sits there.
Also worth noting:
VWAP anchored from ATH aligns with that region.
First major resistance overhead.
MTF:
The rally is starting to overheat.
RSI in overheated territory.
Open Interest now above ATH levels.
Late longs continue to pile in.
Positioning is getting crowded.
Conclusion:
Short-term strength is still there.
But structurally, conditions are weakening.
I’m positioned short here.
A shift in direction looks increasingly likely.
English
@velo_xyz LTF we have legitimacy to complete a final push.
MTF a correction is due
x.com/quantlibrary/s…
tim | quant@quantlibrary
📊 $BTC Orderflow + My Positioning: We’ve retraced ~56% of the last move down. Rejection right at that level. I’ve started building short exposure here. Not aggressive yet, but positioning early. On the 4H, there’s still potential for room higher. Volume imbalance remains unfilled. 84k is the key magnet. First POC + Yearly VWAP sit there. Short-term, the move is still supported. OI rising. CVD rising. Real demand is still present on lower timeframes. But this is usually how tops form. Strength first. Then slowdown. Then reversal. I’m expecting a turnaround soon.
English
@cryptogoos the rally is slowly running out of fuel...
x.com/quantlibrary/s…
tim | quant@quantlibrary
📊 $BTC Orderflow + My Positioning: We’ve retraced ~56% of the last move down. Rejection right at that level. I’ve started building short exposure here. Not aggressive yet, but positioning early. On the 4H, there’s still potential for room higher. Volume imbalance remains unfilled. 84k is the key magnet. First POC + Yearly VWAP sit there. Short-term, the move is still supported. OI rising. CVD rising. Real demand is still present on lower timeframes. But this is usually how tops form. Strength first. Then slowdown. Then reversal. I’m expecting a turnaround soon.
English
Bitcoin Open Interest is now at its highest level in 3+ months.
Meanwhile, spot volume is at a yearly low.
Too much leverage in the system.
English
@marketwizard i absolutetly agree. LTF we have potential to reach 84k where we will hit the first point of major resistance.
MTF/ HTF a correction is definently needed to cool this rally off. Many start to forget we are actually still in a bear market...
x.com/quantlibrary/s…
tim | quant@quantlibrary
📊 $BTC Orderflow + My Positioning: We’ve retraced ~56% of the last move down. Rejection right at that level. I’ve started building short exposure here. Not aggressive yet, but positioning early. On the 4H, there’s still potential for room higher. Volume imbalance remains unfilled. 84k is the key magnet. First POC + Yearly VWAP sit there. Short-term, the move is still supported. OI rising. CVD rising. Real demand is still present on lower timeframes. But this is usually how tops form. Strength first. Then slowdown. Then reversal. I’m expecting a turnaround soon.
English
$BTC showing insane strength, destroyed every resistance on the way up.
But HTF? Not buying it yet.
This still looks like a potential lower high before another leg down.
84k is the level.
Massive confluence: 200daily MA, 0.618 fib, CME gap, RSI overbought, weekly/monthly FVGs, prior range retest.
Break and hold above, I flip bullish.
Until then, I’m cautious.
English
@DynamoXDD the orderflow is still showing signs of strength short term. 84k-86k is still very possible.
MTF I can def see a correction to the downside tho.
x.com/quantlibrary/s…
tim | quant@quantlibrary
📊 $BTC Orderflow + My Positioning: We’ve retraced ~56% of the last move down. Rejection right at that level. I’ve started building short exposure here. Not aggressive yet, but positioning early. On the 4H, there’s still potential for room higher. Volume imbalance remains unfilled. 84k is the key magnet. First POC + Yearly VWAP sit there. Short-term, the move is still supported. OI rising. CVD rising. Real demand is still present on lower timeframes. But this is usually how tops form. Strength first. Then slowdown. Then reversal. I’m expecting a turnaround soon.
English
Technically SL is hit, but I’m still not convinced with this pump. Also there are a lot of warnings signs flashing currently on bitcoin:native
Added some more quantity, now the entry price is 80.8k.
DYNAMO@DynamoXDD
Took a short based on this setup on bitcoin:native
English
@TedPillows Alts are not ready to fire yet, as we are still in an official bear market.
BTC is about the correct some of the way down in the near future. Short term we could see a push higher
x.com/quantlibrary/s…
tim | quant@quantlibrary
📊 $BTC Orderflow + My Positioning: We’ve retraced ~56% of the last move down. Rejection right at that level. I’ve started building short exposure here. Not aggressive yet, but positioning early. On the 4H, there’s still potential for room higher. Volume imbalance remains unfilled. 84k is the key magnet. First POC + Yearly VWAP sit there. Short-term, the move is still supported. OI rising. CVD rising. Real demand is still present on lower timeframes. But this is usually how tops form. Strength first. Then slowdown. Then reversal. I’m expecting a turnaround soon.
English
@TedPillows stocks & bitcoin are up, but the move is now getting overheated from an orderflow perspective
x.com/quantlibrary/s…
tim | quant@quantlibrary
📊 $BTC Orderflow + My Positioning: We’ve retraced ~56% of the last move down. Rejection right at that level. I’ve started building short exposure here. Not aggressive yet, but positioning early. On the 4H, there’s still potential for room higher. Volume imbalance remains unfilled. 84k is the key magnet. First POC + Yearly VWAP sit there. Short-term, the move is still supported. OI rising. CVD rising. Real demand is still present on lower timeframes. But this is usually how tops form. Strength first. Then slowdown. Then reversal. I’m expecting a turnaround soon.
English
@AshCrypto short term we have legitimacy to go higher. MTF a correction is due. the rally is overheating
x.com/quantlibrary/s…
tim | quant@quantlibrary
📊 $BTC Orderflow + My Positioning: We’ve retraced ~56% of the last move down. Rejection right at that level. I’ve started building short exposure here. Not aggressive yet, but positioning early. On the 4H, there’s still potential for room higher. Volume imbalance remains unfilled. 84k is the key magnet. First POC + Yearly VWAP sit there. Short-term, the move is still supported. OI rising. CVD rising. Real demand is still present on lower timeframes. But this is usually how tops form. Strength first. Then slowdown. Then reversal. I’m expecting a turnaround soon.
English
Only thing stopping Bitcoin from going to $90,000 right now is………
Tweets from President Trump.
English
@TedPillows the coverage is not yet as big as it could be. in many parts of the world you cannot use it easily.
the concept hasnt been made fully avaiable to the masses yet.
English
Prediction markets are here to stay. Do you also use it?
Interesting to see Kalshi having a 60% market share.
John Wang@j0hnwang
The “non-crypto” prediction market just flipped the biggest “crypto” prediction market in crypto volume. 9% market share in January → 60% now.
English
@criptopaul people always see what they want to see, even if it means ignoring obvious facts
x.com/quantlibrary/s…
tim | quant@quantlibrary
We are more than halfway through the bitcoin:native Bear Market Cycle. Structurally, this is where accumulation happens. Smart money builds positions while retail loses patience.
English
BTC is pumping. Shorts are getting liquidated. Bulls are already calling new all time highs.
Now look at this chart. Four cycles. After every SELL signal, price rallied hard enough to convince the entire market the bear was over. It never was. The bottom formed months later.
.The bear market is not over. The bottom has not formed. What you are seeing is what bear markets do best: rally until nobody believes they are bear markets anymore.
English
@CGT_Trader very true, i dont see many talking about this. crucial level for the future of btc
English
$BTC
We are now getting closer to the aVWAP anchored at the old time high.
So far, we’ve retested this dynamic resistance twice and got rejected both times.
If we are still in a bear market, price should get rejected there.
However, if price manages to find acceptance above, the upside potential increases massively.
English
@KillaXBT very reflected. keep up the grind man and dont listen to the noise. no one can be perfect in trading
English
My short was too early, plain and simple.
I was wrong to short without proper confirmations.
I had already outlined the higher probability approach... wait for clear acceptance within the range.
I didn’t follow my own plan. That’s on me.
Coming off a strong yearly win streak, it’s easy to let confidence creep into execution. Not in a reckless way, but in subtle ways, entering a bit sooner, anticipating instead of confirming. The setup was there from a TA/PA perspective, but timing is part of the edge, and I compromised on that trying to prove something.
That’s the part people don’t talk about enough... it isn't just about being right, it’s about repeating your process without exception. The moment you start bending rules even slightly, because things have been going well, you’re no longer trading your system, you’re trading your ego.
Don’t front run your own strategy and don’t trade to validate yourself. It’s easy to fall into that pattern on an app where validation is key.
As it stands, I’m still in the position with my stop at 84K, but I have to be honest, it’s looking increasingly likely that it gets taken.
That doesn’t change my broader thesis. But if I do get stopped, I’ll reassess with a clear head rather than forcing the next move.
We reset, and we go again.
Killa@KillaXBT
I was wrong.
English
Important note on this analysis:
Targets are not set yet.
Order flow does not give enough information at this stage to call for sub 60k.
The current thesis is simple:
The move is getting exhausted.
I see the highest probability scenario as a retracement.
How deep that retrace goes is still unclear.
We’ll only get clarity on targets as price develops further.
English
📊 $BTC Orderflow + My Positioning:
We’ve retraced ~56% of the last move down.
Rejection right at that level.
I’ve started building short exposure here.
Not aggressive yet, but positioning early.
On the 4H, there’s still potential for room higher.
Volume imbalance remains unfilled.
84k is the key magnet.
First POC + Yearly VWAP sit there.
Short-term, the move is still supported.
OI rising. CVD rising.
Real demand is still present on lower timeframes.
But this is usually how tops form.
Strength first. Then slowdown. Then reversal.
I’m expecting a turnaround soon.
English
@exitpumpBTC this should tell us everything for what is about to happen
English
@Ikigai_xyz yes, market is agreeing that this is not a fair value. We are still in an imbalance. IMO we will see a larger move soon
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