Simon Larner
4K posts





In about an hour the Fed almost certainly does nothing. That is not the story. The story is what it says while doing it. A hold at 3.50 to 3.75% is 97% priced. Fourth pause in a row. Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair. The rate is a non-event. Three things released alongside it are not. The dot plot. In March the Fed still penciled one rate cut for 2026. I expect that cut erased tonight, the median showing none, and a real chance a few dots point to a hike. Watch whether Warsh even submits his own dot. He has spent years attacking the practice. The tone, 30 minutes later. A new chair cannot promise easing in his opening act against 4.2% inflation and 4.3% unemployment without burning his credibility on day one. Expect hawkish to neutral, inflation named as the priority, and a defense of independence that is really a message to the president who appointed him wanting cuts. Now the call that matters, because here I break from the market. After May's hot inflation, traders price a 66% chance of a rate hike this year. I fade that. Strip out the oil war and core inflation is running at just 0.2% a month. The hot headline is energy, not a wage spiral. And you do not hike into a barrel that is already falling. Oil just dropped toward 79 on the Iran framework. The thing that made this inflation is the thing now undoing it. So my base case is not the hike the market is buying. It is a hawkish hold that lasts, with the first real cut a 2027 story, once this year's energy spike rolls out of the math. The one thing that breaks my call is the one thing nobody controls. If the strait re-closes and oil re-spikes past 100, the rollover never comes, and the Fed gets forced into the hike I am fading. Hold tonight. Hawkish dots. And the whole path hostage to a barrel of oil.








@The_BoleynBoys @JimWhite @Sjopinion10 DK just sat back and watched Sullivan hang himself and bought an asset when the stock is at its lowest. It’s typical English behaviour for the media to snivel at someone trying to do what us fans have been crying out for.





C&H: Daniel Kretinsky has drafted up plans to transform the London Stadium into a more traditional football ground. The plans include removing the running track, bringing seats closer to the pitch, closing the gap between the tiers and upgrading hospitality. ⚒️ #WHUFC #COYI


@StanCollymore The FA get 3,800 tickets and 1,200 are available to ex-players? Tough on the fans if so.

The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Claude models is not affected. We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…


It's only fair to say, much that was promised was never in West ham gift to deliver, but will we ever see an automated system that drives all four sides close to the pitch as promised before we moved? RT no Fav yes.












