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This is FOMO hitting faster than most funds expected.
The tape is full of put sellers today, more of what I’ve talked about lately, but today they’re way more aggressive.
Chasing is expensive, but not as much as underperformance when stocks are squeezing higher.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
Hedge funds continue to aggressively cover their short positions: Hedge fund short exposure in US-listed ETFs fell -11.5% last week, the largest weekly short covering over the last decade. At the same time, purchases of macro products, including index futures and ETFs, were the largest since May 2025. As a result, hedge fund exposure to global equity macro products has only been higher in 3% of cases over the last 5 years. The magnitude of the unwind suggests hedge funds were caught offside by the ceasefire rally and were forced to cover. Hedge funds are rushing back into equities.
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@FractaLitty oversold at extremes. You really think we go lower? Maybe the bottom is in… but lose this level, and the trend is gone
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@vaenvos Bottom should be in about 100days from now, BTC bottom recovery is violent up movement, it should be typical btc behavior, unless they do some bottom shenanigans like FTX in 2022
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@FractaLitty neither I nor any market participant should be happy to see that lost just to buy cheaper. Losing that trend would, in my view, be a real structural shift—one that’s hard to recover from.
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@FractaLitty Bitcoin is obviously not going anywhere—I’m not saying anything like that. I’m just saying it could take time to recover from a break of that line
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@FractaLitty trendlines are personal. What I see might not be what others see. No single line defines the market. Still, losing a 10-year trend is not something I’d take lightly
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@FractaLitty bitcoin is math, but markets are made of participants—ultimately just supply and demand. The lines I see are the same ones everyone else sees
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@vaenvos All these lines are subjective, it has nothing to do with the “market participants” since btc is the mathematical asset, so they have no effect on the price trajectory. Participants in it are just noise. It will require neither less, breaking all TAs👐
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@FractaLitty below these levels, the trend is lost; taking it below these levels would require a miracle to recover
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@vaenvos I don’t think bottom is in, should be in the summer tho. Any bear market in btc is bear trap lol
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11 me-retweet
11 me-retweet