With just five days to go until the Virginia gerrymandering referendum, I've just run the same early vote model that I used in 2021, 2024, and 2025. The results give me an early vote electorate of: 🔴GOP: 35.99% 🔵Dems: 64.01% That's pretty much the ballgame right there. I'm sure "No" will do significantly better than Sears did last November, but national Republicans really just abandoned this fight before it even began. My gut tells me that the GOP is going to fall just short of what it really needed to get on both the persuasion and turnout fronts. I'm expecting "Yes" to win by about 3-7 points. The Supreme Court of Virginia should throw this entire case out because Democrats violated the state constitution and state law in order to even get this referendum on the ballot in the first place (to say nothing of the explicitly partisan language itself), but considering the court is filled with cowards, I'm not holding my breath that they'll do the right thing.
