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Update: This is the biggest update I have ever made but I hope I made it clear with good logic so you wouldn't get bored and lost. It took me a lot of weeks to do it and I hope you enjoy it. It's raw TA presenting the data and my expectations for the market in the next few months. This update, I will combine price and time on the chart to show you the data and to plan for the more likely scenario in the coming months. PS: Dates can have variations of multiple days maybe even weeks especially on the Higher time frames. 1st analysis: The Yearly Cycle: I am gonna start with the biggest cycle which is the yearly. You can see how we are in extreme risk before the next pivot around 2nd of February. That phase got left translated with distributive PA when I outlined this back in the beginning of October. Historically if we look into the previous cycle, we can see almost the same fractal/pattern, we had a -50% on dump before that same pivot on the same harmonic. That pivot led to a +40% swing so a dead cat bounce and didn't lead to a new ATH. PS: Another period of risk would be between April 2026 and September 2026. Based on this Yearly cycle, we can extract the data that BTC can dump around 50% from the ATH until the next pivot around 2 February for a +40% move. 2nd Analysis: The monthly cycle: This cycle points to a pivot around 22 December. The severity of the dump and pump is determined by the context. How bullish/bearish the context is. As per data, into these monthly pivots, you normally see the biggest crashes because those harmonics are pivotal forces that attract price into that time period and the biggest pumps depending on how bullish the context is (4year cycle timing). For the dumps into those monthly pivots, we have: -56%, -77% and -34%. (-56% was late in the cycle and -77% was bear market time. -34% was shallow because it's during the middle of the bull market). For the pumps: 140%, 375% and 158% (also depends where we are in the cycle) Based on the Monthly cycle, we can extract the data that BTC can dump between 34% and 77% from the ATH until the next pivot around 22 December. 3rd Analysis: The weekly cycle: This cycle points to a pivot around 19 November. The severity of the dump and pump is determined by the context. How bullish/bearish the context is. As per data, into these weekly pivots, you normally see big crashes because those harmonics are pivotal forces that attract price into that time period and big pumps depending on how bullish the context is (4year cycle timing). For the dumps into those weekly pivots, we have: -20%, -20%, -34% and -32%. (shallow pull backs, we were still in a good bull market environment). For the pumps: 99%, 96%, 95%, 127% and 69% (The latest expansion/swing from the pivot is the weakest, it makes sense because we are getting late into the cycle). Based on the Weekly Cycle, we can extract the data that BTC can dump between -20% and -34% from the ATH until the next pivot around 19 November. Conclusion: If we combine all 3 analysis, we can conclude that BTC can dump anywhere between -20% and -77% by next pivot between 19 November and 2 February. This is too wide, we can refine better: -> For price: It's when all the harmonics sync up together we get the biggest crashes and pivots (like a magnet). The bigger harmonics carry much more weight, so it would be ridiculous if BTC only dumps 20 to 34%. Logically it should be more than that but smaller than 77% because we aren't in deep bear market yet as per the yearly cycle. So logically, the dump could be anywhere between 34% and 55%. -> For time: It's when all the harmonics sync up together we get the biggest crashes and pivots (like a magnet). The bigger harmonics carry much more weight, so 19 November is too early for the pivot to be set when you have monthly and yearly pushing it into late December or even early February. So logically, we should get the pivot somewhere in January give or take. Based on this and the key levels I have shared on BTC (89K (locally), 72k, 45k and 28k (72k, 44k and 28k being HTF optimal levels)): 1) 90k (-30%) in January 2) 72k (-43%) in January PS: The late November weekly pivot can deliver a dead cat bounce before finding the real bottom in January. Imo, 90k can come in November and 72k in January. Also, will BTC do a new ATH during the next pivot? Based on the first analysis, last cycle, that same harmonic delivered a 40% move on BTC without a new ATH. Imo not enough data to conclude if BTC can be able to do a new ATH before the period of risk (between May2026-September2026). For now the data and probability suggests not.

Eventually it will lose this value to go somewhere else (another value) or use LVN as a fast fake out and then back to value. The point is that it will stay there for a long time before any meaningful downside or upside. I would say since it's not on a strong demand, it will seek lower demand so I would say with 90%+ probability that BTC hasn't macro bottomed yet

@RuurdSnijdtDoor @ChainHubCT Echt, geen melt-up meer voor btc dus…?

I am gonna repeat something I already talked about but in a well structured update. The reason why BTC is so choppy and will keep on being choppy for many weeks/months to come is that because the price between 60-70k is a huge area of fair value (Balanced price). A price where buyers and sellers are fully in a agreement and no imbalance between them. They both agreed on the same value for 1 BTC for 8-9 months. This means the demand is very weak and if in 2024 it spent this much time building the value then today or in the future, this area will again spend a lot of time in. This is why breaking out of a big range is huge deal but coming back to it is a straight boring PA on HTF. There are no optimal reversal levels here on BTC. This is an optimal SUPPORT on BTC. Big balance act as magnet and slow price down. This is why this HTF falling knife since 126k was stopped almost immediately as soon as BTC reached 60-70k (mainly 62-63k because that's where the POC is which is the biggest balanced prices in that range). While we are in a bullish phase, BTC was able to go higher but look at that price increase, it's gradual (weak) and choppy. It's only a matter of time before BTC takes out all this PA in 1-2 candles while keep ranging. This will be one of the most boring phases in BTC history. We also have just abvoe that balance a huge macro LVN which is the complete opposite of balance (imbalance). Between the prices of 74k and 80k, BTC has spent the least amount of time trading there in its history. No buyers no sellers were able to find agreement in that price range. This means that also in the present and the future, this area will keep acting as a no agreement zone for BTC to trade. LVNs either reject prices or price slices through them very fast. Price uses LVN to go the next fair value or go back to the old one. It will depend on context to know which will happen and other areas of confluence. Price will always seek fair value/balance (HVN) In the case of the current PA, we have supply and resistance around these prices. So naturally, BTC shouldn't move higher than those prices before going back in the balanced range between 60-70k. THE only good swing longs worth looking at on BTC and are optimal DEMAND not ''Support'' are 53-58k (mainly 53-55k which is a macro LVN in all of BTC history) and even better 44-46k. This is where you can expect an aggressive reversal instead of chopping PA. So yes, BTC will be boring for HTF traders waiting for higher or lower than those balanced prices. Only LTF and scalpers wil enjoy trading this range. So I recommend you do anything you want except being swing long on crypto in the next weeks/months. Or else u will get so bored and chopped to death waiting for higher prices or making money on swing longs. I still expect a little higher prices from here but not worth opening new positions at all. And also for ETH, huge supply at 2500$ which I will be shorting. It's also very risky if you have too much exposure because upside is so limited compared to downside so RR isn't there. Be smart to choose the RR wisely. Use the poker analogy. You don't bet big when your cards and odds of winning are low...

Silver The chart that keeps on giving gold mine of opportunities. I will likely add to my shorts. It should go and find the bottom under 58$ which should give that sweet sweet opportunity between May and July 2026. The closest most refined level is 42$ and the best most optimal level is 33-34$ (unlikely to go this low) I would then target a new ATH (I guess)

@IamZeroIka 🤝

@ChainHubCT I like to see when someone knows how to properly interpret AMT.

@phoenix_cr47 If he didnt sell his soul, he would never be "successful"

Ok. I usually don’t do this, but Tate has absolutely no clue how leverage actually works. His idea in simple terms: •Borrow 10 million for 5 years •Buy assets with it •Hope those assets rise more than the interest on the loan •Sell later, repay the debt, keep the difference Sounds smart for about 12 seconds. Here’s why it’s nonsense: 1) “Borrow 10 million” From whom exactly? Nobody hands out 10 million unsecured to a random guy with a cool theory. If you don’t already have serious collateral, cash flow, or a balance sheet, you won’t get that loan in the first place. And if someone does lend it, they price the risk accordingly: interest, fees, covenants, maybe personal guarantees, maybe margin requirements. So the plan already starts with fantasy financing. 2) “Buy assets” Which ones? Not only do they need to go up. They need to go up enough to beat: •interest on the debt •fees •taxes •transaction costs •possible hedging or management costs So this isn’t “assets usually go up.” It’s “I need to outperform my financing stack within a fixed time window.” That’s a much harder game. 3) “Assets will rise more than the interest” Maybe. Maybe not. That’s the whole problem. If the assets fall 20–30%, the debt doesn’t magically shrink with them. You still owe the full 10 million plus interest. That’s what leverage does: it turns a market bet into a legal obligation. 4) “By the time you need to pay it back, they’ll be worth more” That’s not investing. That’s forced timing. The lender wants cash on a specific date. Your assets might be down on that exact date. Or illiquid. Or both. So now you’re not selling because it’s smart. You’re selling because you have to. And forced selling is where stupid leverage strategies die.

@RuurdSnijdtDoor lol

😂

@Albert_618 15min. Been waiting for it for 2 days. Imo it might become a 3X

Theres a level on $BTC I like. Its not too far away. I think the probability to play out is good enough to try. You see what I see?

My last 2-3 updates are still relevant that BTC should move higher ever since the 9 March pivot and the value building at range highs (locally bullish). 1-2 weeks later, BTC is above range highs but is it a breakout and are we gonna move to the first "tiny" supply at 78-79k or much higher? Again answer in the last updates. Market used up over 75% of the current bullish phase and BTC's structure isn't really indicating a massive pump coming and it didn't take any meaningful demand. In the game plan update I did, I was very clear that I am playing at least 2 scenarios and take whatever the market gives me. I still have my spot and opened some swing longs on altcoins but fully aware of the limited upside due to BTC and preparing to the lower target I have on BTC. Ethbtc looks very bullish ever since hitting the key level 0.028-0.029 but this chart doesn't tell if ur gonna have one more crash before continuing. It can still go up while market crashes

@Mariomnsr Nice analogy mate, as always;)

You often hear the saying: after an aggressive move, the market tends to range. But most don't understand why even though the reason behind it is very simple. Think of a strong move like a car driving a long distance. The further it travels, the more fuel it consumes. Eventually, it needs to refill the tank. In market terms, this is liquidity. But refueling doesn’t always happen at just one station. Instead, the car may need to stop at multiple gas stations along the way. Each station only has a limited amount of fuel, unless there’s a special one with a massive supply. In markets, those “special stations” are major liquidity zones, often where you see sharp reversals. Now think of a range as those smaller gas stops. During ranges, market makers are essentially hunting liquidity both above and below, creating what looks like boring, sideways price action. But this behavior is intentional. Statistically, most traders are positioned on the wrong side of the market. After a large move, two types of traders appear: > Traders who missed the move >> Traders who lost money during the move Both groups tend to react emotionally. The usual response is FOMO or revenge trading, trying to catch the move they missed or recover what they lost. This is exactly what ranges exploit. By moving price up and down within a range, the market feeds on that emotional behavior, building liquidity from both sides before deciding the next major direction. From there, two things can happen: > Liquidity is collected from both sides, followed by a reversal. (Possible, but less likely in my view.) >> Liquidity is collected to continue the existing move, allowing price to reach deeper liquidity pools before a larger reversal. (More likely in my view.) Ranges essentially punish almost every type of market participant, breakout traders, impatient traders, and emotional traders alike. That’s why understanding the purpose of consolidation is critical. One thing is clear: markets today are far more volatile and information driven than in previous cycles. News flow, narratives, and sentiment shift rapidly. Traders with weak psychology tend to get shaken out repeatedly, funding the moves of MM's. At the end of the day, large participants generally have two core objectives: > Trigger retail liquidations >> Keep retail out of the real expansion move Once you understand this dynamic, you have practical options : > Trade the range (if your edge supports it) >> Stay patient and act once the range breaks >>> Trade other markets (Personal preference) Different financial markets move through different cycles. That means there’s likely a market that’s already trending so it's always a good idea to familiarise yourself (+ your edge) in differing financial markets

@CryptoChase02 Currently, this alt is one of the few that don't look bullish to me so no. Maybe once BTC macro bottoms

@ChainHubCT Have you got a position? 🤣

$LTC 🧲 I feel like I'm going to look back at myself and call myself crazy for not having a position on Litecoin. I need to think of something just in case. That 1M BB will get hit in the future. It's just a matter of when.

@IamZeroIka It's a bullish phase in my books and since we have been dumping a lot so far, it's looking good. If we get sub 58k prices, it's a no brainer long to me and we can expect exceptional returns

@ChainHubCT What about?

- BTC AMT (episode 3 + nuances) - As anticipated in the February 5th post, the probability of seeing a V-shaped reversal was very low. Over the past month and a bit more, we have instead spent time building value, which was the most likely outcome if we consider the accumulation schematic that developed during the spring and summer of 2024. From an AMT perspective, this is fairly clear. The key, therefore, is to operate within the range and analyze what is happening inside it. If we look strictly at the internal structure of this range, the schematic is not particularly strong, because the February lows could easily be swept. Considering the inverse as well, the structure looks very similar to the rotational phase we observed between November and late January. For this reason, I would not be surprised to see a sweep of those lows before a potential move higher. That move higher, in my view, would not necessarily mark the bottom of the bear market (check pinned video) but it could provide something quite interesting in terms of swing long positioning. (admitting we reclaim the low and we don't close below) If this scenario does not play out and price instead breaks out of this value zone, the most important reference point, in my opinion, is the VAH around $78,680. That is the most logical level where we might see price congestion and a potential rejection (🔻 arrow) or, if the level is accepted instead (✅ arrow), we could see a continuation potentially even toward the $98,000 area. I do not consider this the highest-probability scenario, especially if the lows are not taken first, but it still needs to be taken into account. In any case, this period remains rather dull. It is not surprising that people are losing patience and interest, but if we think about it's something we saw over and over again during cycles.

@IamZeroIka Most curious to see what happens in the phase between 15 April and 22 June ish

@ChainHubCT Very curious to see what happens.

@IamZeroIka Yeah wrote a similar update. Big indecision in the market. I think we will see a powerful dead cat bounce in the market before bear market lows but BTC isn't lookong ready yet

@ChainHubCT This is what I see at the moment, also considering the strength of this value zone. Probably, we will continue to dance for a bit between local value and production cost.

@daymn_lolx I always have Doge updates on my TL when updates matter

@ChainHubCT have you mentioned your targets boss

Come on Doge, do something...

@lukeknightspt Look altcoins are so hard to trade unlike big cap assets. It looks bullish locally. I would say a long here makes sense if you look at it individually. BTC doesn't look bullish at all here. So simple invalidation if u are long on AXS is not to lose the current low at 1.08$.

@ChainHubCT Not what I wanted to hear but probably what I need to hear. Thank you.

Altcoins have become so weird to trade. I was very clear about my opinion on altcoins which is bullish but the problem with altcoins is that they turned bullish when BTC was and still is bearish. I have explained that in past updates. This is why alts have been so hard to HTF trade. They all look almost the same but only a fraction really pumps, a very selective minority and it's almost impossible to know which will pump. It's always better to wait for BTC to turn bullish so that we can see all altcoins pump instead of guessing which ones will pump in a bearish BTC environment. I have huge profits on some selective positions mainly TAO and HYPE but I also carry some lost positions on other altcoins. I will avoid altcoins for now until BTC gets bullisher (maybe when we see BTC under 58k) and I buy heavier. The best opportunities in the crypto market are yet to come and I want to be there to make money once time comes even if this means to miss out on selective altcoin pumps right now

A bullish continuation shouldn't retrace more than 61.8% of the pump so imo it's a hard rejection from 3$ HTF supply of Summer 2025. Sure it can go back up to 5$ since it's a small altcoin and not a big cap asset but normally this is a very bearish PA after a hard rejection from 3$

@ChainHubCT Thank you. I readded between 1.4 and 1.1 and yday pump got me wondering if we had more in the tank but overall not that confident. I’ll think on what to do.