Chess
1.1K posts
@MooninPapa Would you be interested in sharing your thoughts on depin plays like io or nos? Businesses with charts might be a thing again.
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BTC pushed into another slightly higher high, daily RSI beat Tuesday’s high, and OBV is still bullish above its moving average, but volume is still not doing enough to confirm a clean continuation. The bigger issue is that the 4h TBO breakout cluster printed after a 6% move, which is the same kind of late breakout behavior that has failed before. That keeps the short term bias leaning toward a pullback even while the weekly chart is flashing a very real bullish divergence in progress.
ETH still looks weaker than BTC, and that keeps the broader message the same: it is still Bitcoin season. BTC dominance keeps grinding higher, BTC has some weekend room above the CME high, and TOTAL3ESBTC is now working through a third daily breakdown signal. That is still a bearish warning for alts, even if some of these charts eventually try to carve out a pivot low.
TradFi closed the week stronger than expected, but a lot of the move still looks stretched. DXY is drifting lower, ES and NYFANG look toppy after the bounce, NVDA is back toward overbought territory, the VIX is cooling, the Nikkei just confirmed an open long that still looks suspect, oil still has unfinished gap business, and gold and silver are both trying to hold onto recovery. The bounce was real, but the broader backdrop still looks fragile.
In today’s picks, the message was still mostly caution. ZEC is extended into the cloud, M and Pump Fun may still have tactical upside but need careful handling, TAO confirmed a bearish divergence and finally rolled over, WLFI still looks like a mess, POL and ETHBTC still look weak, ZBCN is flashing another bearish warning, and MON remains one of the strongest charts on the board even if it is getting overheated. Viewer picks were mixed too: SUI still needs a cleaner bottom, SOLBTC is another reminder of how ugly alt/BTC pairs can get, NEAT and HYPE are extended, LDO and DOT still look structurally weak, Amazon still has another upside gap target, Intel remains one of the strongest charts on the board, and ServiceNow still looks headed lower.
The spring sale is almost over, so if you want the courses at 40% off, the TBO on sale, or the rest of the resources Aaron mentioned in today’s video, check the links below.
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@BullyDCrypto Always awesome, thank you!! This looks like the io chart.
Is io.net an opportunity worth accumulating rn in your opinion?
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Using orderflow to understand why price moves
And how to take advantage of it:
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I just want to remind everyone that in the last bear market it took until June and July for Voyager and Celsius to collapse and it took until November for FTX to collapse. These brutal bear markets are good for one thing - Exposing failing businesses. Be on the lookout for overly bullish individuals even though this bear market will probably continue.
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Haven't gotten a chance to read full the @ionet tokenomics litepaper yet?
No problem, here's the lowdown.
The IDE:
→ Replaces fixed, inflationary token emissions with a dynamic, demand driven model
→ Provides GPU supplier income in USD-targeted payouts to remove token price volatility
→ Burns at least 50% of remaining emissions supply over time, creating real scarcity tied to real usage
→ Introduces a dual-vault system that protects suppliers in downturns, absorbing surplus in upturns
Find out more:
io.net/tokenomics
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The final io.net tokenomics litepaper is now live!
After releasing our initial proposal in December, we spent weeks talking to our community and gathering feedback from builders, suppliers, and token holders.
The verdict? Overwhelmingly positive.
Creating a sustainable, utility driven network is exactly what the AI industry needs. And the Incentive Dynamic Engine (IDE) is the way to get there.
Check out the final version of the litepaper here:
io.net/tokenomics
The IDE will go live in Q2 2026!
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BTC is doing exactly what the bear flag setup called for. Price broke below the cloud yesterday on the daily, and today opened below it - currently down just 0.32% but that's not a recovery, that's hesitation. The measured target from the January 14th high to the February 6th low, applied to the current flag structure, puts the downside at $41K. Historical pivot lows at $49K and $38.5K are the next support levels that matter. RSI put in a lower high on March 25th at 55.39 vs. the March 16th high of 76.83, and a lower low is coming. If OBV closes below its moving average today on red volume, that seals the case. Support to watch: $67K. If it goes, the bounce back to test broken support is the short entry, not a reason to buy.
The macro picture keeps building in the same direction. DXY moved up 0.87% Wednesday and Thursday, sitting right at the top of resistance inside what looks like a bull flag. USDJPY has been testing 159.90 three weeks in a row - one and a half percent away from the July 2024 high at 161.95, where the Bank of Japan last intervened. That intervention crashed BTC 30% in eight days.
The VIX is on day 24 inside the rejection zone without a resolution. S&P futures closed down 1.74% yesterday. The Nasdaq printed its second TBO breakdown on the daily and is making a new local low below the November 21st pivot. A 15% further drop to the weekly slow line is now on the table.
ETH fell 5% yesterday, still inside the TBO cloud, but below its RSI support level - lower is likely. Stablecoin dominance pushed back above the daily cloud, which is bearish for crypto broadly.
Gold is seeing its first OBV cross below the moving average since July 2025 - a big deal given how persistent the uptrend has been. Silver got rejected 4.59% from its 1.272 fib extension on Thursday.
On the picks: XLM printed one TBO breakout on Wednesday and got rejected, struggling at the 38.2% fib with a lower RSI high - short candidate.
HYPE and SYRUP both logged TBO close shorts. IMX tagged the fast line after three perfect four-hour TBO breakdowns - short entry with tight risk.
W and SKY both printed TBO close longs in clusters. MORPHO down 8.67% with a second close long printed.
RIVER cracked through support and is doing exactly the textbook pattern - lose support, retest from below, reject, and go.
TAO is at a rollover point - fast line at $275 is first target. SOL down 5.64%, looks like toast.
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Soylana actually did need a perp DEX that took off
Hyperliquid dominance is devastating to Solana and SOL
There is no amount of techno babble and rationalizing that changes or excuses the colossal failure that is Solana
The reasons are threefold
1) Colossal arrogance and stupidity of Soylana VCs
2) Soylana Foundation is an absolute dumpster fire joke
3) SBF went to prison
Stacy Muur@stacy_muur
This Solana chart is absolutely cooked. More than 30M users were trading on Solana weekly during its peak period in 2024. Now it's less than 2M.
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Super villain shit
UBI is going to be necessary, but who will pay for it?
The giant tech companies putting tens of millions out of work *should* pay for it.. But the reality is likely just higher and higher taxes on the remaining workforce until they just snap and burn the entire country to the ground
The Wall Street Journal@WSJ
Breaking: Jeff Bezos is in talks to raise $100 billion for a new fund that would buy manufacturing companies and use AI to automate them wsj.com/tech/jeff-bezo…
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@BernieSanders Fight for the jobs you hate.. protect your misery...don't think or pivot. Don't even pay attention...
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Jeff Bezos, worth $234 billion, plans to replace 600,000 Amazon workers with robots.
Now, he wants to spend $100 billion to fully automate not just his warehouses, but factories in the U.S & other countries.
Oligarchs are waging all out war against workers. FIGHT BACK.
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1/ BTC appears to have formed a pivot high
RSI closed overbought at 76.83 on Monday and is now pulling back
Bear flag still valid, volume isn't supporting this level
OBV MA is trending bullish but that alone isn't enough
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@MooninPapa I was watching the levels and RSI and was able to pull the sell trigger for the first time in years. Thanks man.
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