Kass

Nothing to see here! Job Openings vs. SP500. The Real Economy and the disconnecting Financial Markets No Bubble 🤪

Why I Think Michael Burry Is Shutting Down Scion Now Let’s put a few things together…Burry’s liquidation letter, his depreciation thread on the hyperscalers, and his “me then, me now” Big Short meme and he’s basically spelling out one story. He thinks we’re in an earnings inflated, AI driven bubble that a value investor can’t sit inside without eventually getting crushed. In the letter he says it plainly “My estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets.” That’s not a I’m tired of running money line. That’s a man saying, I can’t reconcile what I see in the numbers with the prices the market is willing to pay. When someone like Burry reaches that point, the logical move isn’t to keep collecting fees and hope it mean reverts. It’s to get out of the structure that forces you to play the game at all. Then you look at his post on depreciation. He’s saying the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom that includes META, GOOG, ORCL, MSFT, AMZN of juicing earnings by quietly stretching the useful life of servers and GPU rigs that are really on a 2–3 year technology cycle. Extend the life in the accounting model, and you cut today’s depreciation expense. Cut depreciation, and EPS looks 20–30% higher than it would under a stricter assumption. He’s saying that the market is paying premium multiples on numbers that are, in his view, structurally overstated. Put that together with the “me then, me now… it worked out, it will work out” post, and he’s clearly casting himself as the same guy who sat in front of a wall of subprime prospectuses in 2005. Back then, he saw engineered AAA paper built on bad collateral. Now he sees trillion dollar market caps built on AI capex and accounting choices he thinks will blow up 2026–2028 as the depreciation math reverses. SO WHY SHUT DOWN SCION NOW? MY HIGHEST PROBABILITY READ IS THIS He expects a major repricing in the very stocks that dominate the indices and he doesn’t want to live through the last, craziest stretch of the bubble with other people’s money tied to his name. If he’s right about the under depreciation, then over the next few years earnings growth for the hyperscalers should slow sharply or even go negative just as the AI narrative cools and the cycle matures. When that happens, multiples compress, passive flows that are overweight those names work in reverse, and the broad market takes a hit because the “Magnificent Few” are the market. From his perspective, that looks less like a normal correction and more like the equity version of the housing unwind: a long stretch of fake comfort, then a sharp break when the math can’t be hidden anymore. Closing the fund accomplishes a few things at once. It lets him step aside before that break, so he’s not fighting client redemptions or daily benchmarking while he’s trying to hold deeply contrarian positions. It frees him to short or sit in cash on his own terms, without regulators and LPs looking over his shoulder. And it sends a signal: if valuations are this disconnected from what he thinks the true earnings power is, the most honest thing he can do as a fiduciary is hand back the money and say, I don’t want you in this. So, in my view, he’s not walking away because he’s done with markets. He’s stepping off the stage because he thinks the show has turned into something he’s seen before: a late cycle mania, powered by flattering models and aggressive accounting, that ends with a long, grinding reset in stock prices especially at the top of the index. @michaeljburry

@merrittblack Damn VP has always added confluence to my positions. Should I start over? 🥺

Volume profile is entirely worthless.

@JBearTrades @johnjjj1997 @AgustinLebron3 So expand. What we're tricked about? Genuinely curious.

@johnjjj1997 @AgustinLebron3 I was tricked. I admit that.

➡️ How to tell if the trading company you're interviewing at is actually a scummy bucket shop that will take your money. ⬅️ 🧵 👉

@baynkr Ryan your a disruptor. Raen is revolutionary for people who have no avenue for a traditional path. An assement fee is a filter for those who come from a background of blowing challenges and trying again. Plus refunded upon success . It's strategic

@Raentrading What if you've proven consistent profitability over the last two years But know your not maximizing, could refine with better feedback and flourish under mentorship. Is raen a good fit for those of us that seek it as a launchpad to grow and don't have it "figured out"?

@VRVitaly @Micro2Macr0 @realDonaldTrump Being a Trump supporter doesn't mean dying by the sword just because. It's OK to be critical of a candidate. We all should be.

@Micro2Macr0 @realDonaldTrump I thought you were a Trump supporter - Elon gone so no more Trump support?

.@realDonaldTrump will lose the house and the senate in the next election.

If you are afraid to fail you will!! If you embrace the fact you will fail than you empower yourself to move past it into long term profitability. I will spend more money on some days, I will over trade on others, I will miss easy layups. I embrace the fact that I fail. I don’t fear it.

FEB ‘25 @SMBCAPITAL TAKEAWAYS 1. Right now we are in a market with high volatility and high headline risk. Both of these factors disincentivize trading on longer timeframes and instead incentivize you to shorten your timeframe. This means less swing trading, less overnight risk. More focus on just simply catching the next intraday leg in front of you. This is NOT the market to be swing trading momentum. 2. Across the board, I think we’ve seen opportunities degrade despite the market sell-off. Very large overall percentage move, but I saw very few trades that interested me. Yet, for those that don’t have nuanced systems, they can end up fading these subpar setups. Yes, big moves, but no, not very capitulatory at all. Big lesson to learn and work on, if that is something you might have messed up. I’d argue that March has been the worst month in quite some time. Many traders I know are dialing WAY back. It is a good time to take a breather, step back, reflect, and figure out what the current market calls for. Don’t give back more PNL than necessary in this environment. 3. Game planning is becoming more important. Many aspects of the market are at a pivotal time right now. Tariffs. Fed action. China stimulus. M&A on pause. What are the key headlines that might inflect the market one way or the other? What are all the No Man’s Land headlines you want to avoid? 4. In periods like this, I find it very much worthwhile to build networks. Branch out to other traders. Find ways to improve your pod. Attends meetups like those hosted by @traders4acause. Do the reflections on what path is going to help take you to the next step of where you want to go.

Great thread. Helpful for many, myself included. This is more or less identical to my approach and thoughts

A traders year end review comes down to three key questions: 1. What worked well? 2. What didn’t? 3. What's next? To do a deeper dive, here are some questions to consider. Remember: Curiosity is the basis for improvement.

@merrittblack 2025 Goals ➡️ Join the Ápteros Desk 🫡

Here's two of my better performing Jr Desk traders over the past two months on our internal analytics dashboard. Common to see really good traders with prolonged periods of performance ratio between 1 - 2.

@MichaelPatak @MattLeech Will traders have to pay the $150 fee to have their passed combines placed on hold?

@MattLeech Yes. They have the same rule for their Live accounts as all. If live on air guest trade their live.

@Topstep @MW_Futures Will traders have to pay the $150 fee to keep passed combines on hold?

@MW_Futures Live Funded Accounts start at the maximum position size allowed for your account level. If you want to adjust your account parameters, our Risk Team will partner with you. We let our most disciplined, Live Funded Traders continue to scale up.

🚨 TopStep Update for Live Funded Traders 🚨 🔹 No Express + Live Accounts Together: Live Funded Traders can’t activate new Express Accounts. 🔹 Current Express Accounts: Keep trading them, but they may merge into your Live Account after payouts. 🔹 Combines® on Hold: Passed Combines won’t activate Express Accounts. 👀 Risk Team Monitoring: Active Express Accounts are monitored. If closed, you’ll be contacted with next steps. 🌟 Risk Team Opportunity: Disciplined traders may work with the Risk Team to scale up account parameters!

@Emmonspired Curious what helped you to determine that the may/June environment wasn't high probability for you. Was it volume? Was it market structure? Was it VIX? Was it seasonality? This month has been stellar for me. Where June I grinded Breakeven. Thanks Dan love your work!

@R_Starkenburg @DonaldJTrumpJr

@DonaldJTrumpJr No Donnie, Kamala was not put in charge of the border.

Kamala Harris owns the entire leftwing policy record of Joe Biden. The only difference is that she is even more liberal and less competent than Joe, which is really saying something. She was put in charge of the border and we saw the worst invasion of illegals in our history!!!

$DXY and the indices seem to be moving along with each other. This is not something we wanna see❌ We have also seen a LARGE overnight move LOW probability conditions can be expected👁️ I would be very cautious going into the AM session

small tip: oldest trick in the history books on how to manage winners is to lock profit after a monstrous 20-50% gap up (or several-day melt upwards), and trail the remaining shares with EMA10 learn this