Alien By Night
6.5K posts

Alien By Night
@GingerAliens
2026 is the year of me. Sarcasm is my middle name. I do my own DD...do yours.
San Diego, CA 参加日 Ekim 2023
108 フォロー中240 フォロワー

Courtesy of Qatar (except for the billion dollars we spent to upgrade it)
Oh remember…. Trump gets to KEEP THIS when he leaves office
Rapid Response 47@RapidResponse47
The new Air Force One 🔥🇺🇸
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@drayinvests $SPCX at 140 (long)
$ASTS at 60 (long) but flip the the pumps and dumps- they are clockwork money.
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@SenWarren How much of your money have you donated to other children to go to community college Pocahontas?
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@moinvests28 Ridiculous overvaluation for a pre-revenue company that won’t be in the black for at least 2-3 years due to prepaid contracts with existing partners. Expect more public offerings as well.
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Alien By Night がリツイート

@Novariv_ It’s called a correction. It’s been 50% overvalued on hype and pump. Play the swings because it will eventually level off where it belongs (45-60).
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1/ $ASTS dropped almost 16% the same week they literally put 3 more satellites in orbit. Think about how dumb that is for a second. The company is hitting the biggest milestones in its history and the stock is getting smoked.
I keep seeing people asking what happened and if the thesis is dead, so let me actually break this whole thing down. Spoiler, Im not selling a single share 🛰️
2/ The drop has almost nothing to do with the company. On June 12 SpaceX IPO'd at $1.77T, biggest listing ever, and basically every dollar that was parked in small speculative space names got yanked out and thrown at the new shiny thing. The whole sector bled, not just us.
$ASTS just got hit the hardest, and theres a reason for that. SpaceX literally named $ASTS as a competitor in their IPO filing. So when the big dog goes public and points at you, you become the first thing people sell. Add in the index funds being forced to buy SpaceX and you get a giant capital vacuum. None of that is $ASTS doing anything wrong.
3/ Then on top of the rotation, we did the classic sell the news. They launched BlueBirds 8, 9 and 10 on June 17, clean success, and the stock faded anyway cause everyone bought the rumor and dumped the event. And look, Im not gonna sit here and pretend theres zero real overhang. Q1 revenue came in soft, insiders have been selling, and $SPCX just did a $17B spectrum deal with EchoStar that makes their direct to cell push stronger. That EchoStar one actually matters and I'm watching it. But none of this is the business falling apart. Its sentiment, rotation, and one competitor headline.
4/ Now heres what everyone forgets the second the candle turns red. $ASTS is the ONLY company building a cellular network in space that talks straight to a normal phone. No special case, no dish, no extra hardware. The phone already in your pocket. Each BlueBird Block 2 is a 2,400 sq ft monster antenna, one of the biggest commercial arrays ever flown, and it can push up to 120 Mbps down to a regular handset. Thats the moat. Nobody else is doing this at scale.
5/ And before anyone calls it a meme stock burning to zero, look at the actual balance sheet. $3.5B in cash. Over $1.2B already contracted. 2026 revenue guided at $150M to $200M. 50 carrier agreements covering close to 3 billion subscribers, were talking AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, T-Mobile. Plus 8 development contracts with the US DoD. This is a funded company with the biggest carriers on earth already signed, not some hope and prayer ticker.
6/ The part that actually gets me excited is the model flipping on. Right now its mostly a build story. But as they get sats up and turn on commercial service, the carrier revenue share kicks in, and you go from burning cash on a constellation to actually printing recurring revenue off 3 billion potential subs. Theyre at 9 operational sats now and targeting around 45 by year end. That cadence is the entire game.
7/ Am I ignoring the risks? Absolutely not, thats how you blow up an account. Starlink direct to cell plus that EchoStar spectrum is a legit competitive threat. They HAVE to hit the ~45 satellite cadence by year end or the whole multiple comes down. Theyre still deeply unprofitable and burning $1.6B+ in free cash this year. And the insider selling isnt a great look. If they miss on launches, I'll be the first one to say the thesis cracked. But missing hasnt happened yet.
8/ So heres where I land. I never thought this thing rips straight up, its a high beta build and you have to be able to stomach 40% drawdowns like the one were in right now. But the core didnt change this week. First mover in direct to phone satellite broadband, fully funded through the build, carriers already locked, sats going up on schedule. The price got caught in the SpaceX flush. The story didnt. Down 40% from the high and Im still holding every share. What are you guys doing here? 🛰️

AST SpaceMobile@AST_SpaceMobile
A milestone worth lighting up New York City.🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10, the largest commercial communications arrays ever in LEO, are now successfully orbiting Earth. #ASTSpaceMobile #ConnectingTheUnconnected #Nasdaq
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@TheRealWolfff 100%. But I’ll buy and sell 3-4 more times in between. Don’t fall in love with a stock. It will break your heart (and bank account). Date it- on and off and on and off.
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$ASTS
There is a recurring pattern in the chart worth paying attention to
For the past year every time $ASTS made a new high price would retrace 40-50%
Not only did price reverse around -50% but each pull back stopped around the 0.786 fib
Each time the price reached these levels, a new all time high would be made after
Currently, AST has pulled back -42% and is on the 0.786 fib, right where each of the last 3 major reversals has happened
If this pattern continues, history suggests $ASTS is ready to reverse and head back to all time highs

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