MacroMatrix

Madurai final Claude model verdict in 12 seats DMK - 8 NDA - 2 Remanning two it is toss it will go either TVK or NDA. DMK voter will decide that seats winner. @TVKVijayHQ #TVKVijay‌HQ #DMK #NDA #BJP #ADMK

@yadav_ridhaan No bro. Coming this month is election after that I will do analysis on stocks again. Atleast I have some expansive model I can predict what will happen so that many can learn ground politics . Once done I will start analysing stocks again.

@MacroMatrix1 Bro switched careers due to the fall from trader to political analyst . What a transformation 😜. Just kidding

Trichy West Claude model prediction DMK wins. “In cinema analogy” he is biggest don on whole Trichy. Check for Claude analysis below 1. He survived ADMK wave in 2016. 2. 5 time sitting MLA 3. Last election margin own by 85109 votes. 4. DMK provided huge female welfare scheme in this region 5. Reddy + Muthuraja + Muslim support unbreakable. You know why Nehru is top brass in DMK leaders. Vijay is making dent in this region is very big achievement but not enough to win/ converts into the seats. You will understand how micro level politics works. #TVKVijay‌HQ #DMKITWING #ADMK #BJP

@ChandruHOS Even for annamalai it happen.

@MacroMatrix1 Pangaalis will transfer the vote so that one pangaali will win the seat. Dravida parties are curse to society.

Most awaited Trichy East Vijay is taking on very big heavy weight in that region. “Claude model” predicts Vijay is leading but it will be very tough fight it can go either way. You can read Claude analysis below why it will be very tough for Vijay. Why even bigger party like ADMK can’t able to win this seats. You will know real micro level politics. In cinema analogy, he is fighting on bigger don in that region. Still younger votes in that region fighting for Vijay to take lead. #TVKVijay‌HQ #TVKVijay‌ #DMK #ADMK #NDA @TVKVijayHQ

@ChandruHOS Yes it can happen like Kamal.

@Vignesh_2508 Thanks for correcting that. I will correct in model 🙏 but trend is clear in Trichy west DMK wins.

@MacroMatrix1 Also NDA is not P Kumar. It's Thottiyam Rajasekar from Mutharayar community

@rajeshamlw Bro I have provided answer to many people for this questions. Can you check past replies if you don’t get it, I will check and paste the answer bro.

@MacroMatrix1 How is this model basically working? What is the logic behind it?

Trichy East model is predicting Vijay wins. It will be tough fight between DMK vs TVK. Model is predicting Younger demography will vote more for Vijay. In this seat younger demography is more in any other seats. #TVK #trichyeast #Vijay

@Gonnabealrite I have shared in my earlier post bro. Just check it.

Kindly share perambur data if ready / Possible

Yes it seems so. Rural both ADMK & DMK getting more seats. You can check Madurai post earlier rural area how people will vote and how every party nominate the candidate based on caste, religion. If we go rural even it will get deep. If you read Claude analysis you will understand micro level politics in ground. How they will mobilise particular community for vote.

@MacroMatrix1 So as per your prediction(untill now) DMK has a clear advantage and may continue for the 2nd term!!!

Kolathur Claude model predicted Stalin wins. Many might be wondering by seeing young crowd TVK will win in this seat. Model is showing some analysis based on past voting pattern history. In this seat more than 60% of people getting welfare from Stalin Govt and people will prefer more for star candidates than others. This is reality. But TVK surge is huge in this seat and pushing ADMK to third in first election is very big achievement. #TVKVijay‌ #TVKVijay‌HQ #Kolathur #Stalin #Vijay

@bharatha_93 It will not be accurate but it will give trend in that region. If margin is higher then they will be clear winner. But you can learn micro level ground politics, how every party fielding their candidate based on caste, religion on different seats.

@MacroMatrix1 Sure Sure. no rush. I have turned on notifications for your profile, so I’ll be keeping track. Great job, by the way. I’m curious to see how accurate the AI’s predictions turn out after May 4th.

@bharatha_93 I am running on Trichy region now. I will run this week bro. It will cost more analysis is only limited for week. If want to top up it will cost more than 12000 rupees. I will run as much I can in coming weeks.

@MacroMatrix1 Can you run the model for Virudhunagar constituency brother ? Just curious to check what AI predicts

@Tsubasa_Yakuza Okay we will see.

Kolathur has 83,000 TVK members. Plus Vijay Makkal Mandram has a huge presence there and has been conducting various activities for more than a decade including Vilaiyila Virunthagam for more than 1000 days. Plus it's also home to a large number of cinema workers. I had seen 2 or 3 vox pop where TVK clearly had an edge. So, I'll reserve my judgment till results.

@Devarjanv1 @Ayyappan_1504 No he mentioned annamalai is contesting in this seat. I said if he contest he will win.

@MacroMatrix1 @Ayyappan_1504 You are contradicting yourself in one msg stating that it will becake walk for Vanathi madam but in another message you stated that if he (Annamalaiji) contest he will win! What are you trying to say?

Annamalai is most likely to contest from Coimbatore North.

@kadhirvelavan Many young people who don’t know about politics comparing both Stalin & Vijay road show they are thinking TVK will win in Kolathur.

@MacroMatrix1 This is easy. Even i can say

@Devarjanv1 @Ayyappan_1504 Annamalai

@MacroMatrix1 @Ayyappan_1504 Who is that "he"?

@Devarjanv1 @Ayyappan_1504 If he contest he will have chance to win in that seat due to three way fight.

@MacroMatrix1 @Ayyappan_1504 அது அந்த அம்மா நினப்பு ஆனால் மேலிடம் வேறு மாதிரி நினக்கலாமில்ல!

@Harish24749455 @TVK_NewsTrichy @TVKVijayHQ It will give trend in every seats not accurate prediction.

@MacroMatrix1 @TVK_NewsTrichy @TVKVijayHQ Good one🔥

Perambur predicted by Claude. Yesterday I have mentioned this as well. Vijay will win this seats. Always people will vote more for star candidates. @TVKVijayHQ #TVKVijay‌HQ #DMK #Perambur

Below is the Claude response most of the people have asked how it will be predicted. Please note it will show trend in every seats not accurate prediction it can have error. 1. Why ML won’t work here: ∙TVK has ZERO electoral history no training data exists ∙You cannot train a supervised model without a target variable ∙Only 2 elections (2016, 2021) with current boundaries ∙not all constituency-level survey data exists to train on 2. What we actually built: ∙A vote transfer model — tracks where 2021 voters go in 2026 ∙DMK retains ~82% of 2021 vote, loses youth to TVK ∙AIADMK 2021 vote splits: ~55% stays NDA, ~10% goes TVK, ~5% goes DMK ∙MNM 2021 vote (~9.5% avg) transfers ~80% to TVK — this is TVK’s readymade base ∙New voters from turnout increase (60%→80%) split ~60% TVK, 25% DMK, 10% NDA 3. Data sources (all real, publicly verifiable): ∙2021 + 2016 ECI results for all 234 constituencies ∙CEO TN official district age-cohort data (38 districts × 8 age brackets) ∙50 independent vox pop sources totaling ~6,20,000 ground respondents ∙All candidate lists (DMK 164, AIADMK 169, BJP 27, TVK 234, NTK 234) ∙Alliance seat-sharing with transfer efficiency modeled per-party 4. What makes this model unique: ∙District-level age demography weighted by turnout assumptions (80%+ all ages) ∙Alliance transfer correction — when BJP/PMK/AMMK contests instead of AIADMK, NDA loses 3-8% ∙Star candidate personal vote adjustments calibrated from 2021 margins ∙Every seat has unique numbers no regional averaging 5. Validation approach: ∙Backtested against MNM 2021 as a new-party proxy — model correctly predicts MNM ~10% urban, ~3% rural, 0 seats ∙Cross-checked against all formal surveys and 50 vox pop independent sources ∙Two completely different methods (vote transfer model vs district-age-turnout model) converge on same result. This is Claude response of its model. It back tested this model against new entrant in TN election.

@MacroMatrix1 @TVK_NewsTrichy @TVKVijayHQ What model are you using and what data?