Jeff Ferry

AI, the economy, and the coming productivity boom. Or not. growthimperative.substack.com/p/ai-the-econo…

Watch my comments here on Trump's tariffs in Washington Journal with C-Span's Greta Brawner and Mike Negron of the Center for American Progress. c-span.org/program/washin…

When you adjust for the data center boom, US imports were down by $4B last year. The tariffs are working.

@GitaGopinath Dollar's role as reserve+investment+trading currency is a primary cause of 50 yrs of US BOP deficits and deindustrialization. 2ndary cause is other govts exploiting that with export-led growth. 3rd cause is US govt's failure to address the problem w/constraints on both deficits.

The view that the dollar’s reserve currency status is responsible for its deficits is a terribly flawed view.

My latest blog Industrial Policy is Sweeping the World growthimperative.substack.com/p/industrial-p…

My latest post: Why Are Foreign Companies Playing Such a Huge Role in U.S. Reshoring?

New blog post for your reading pleasure!

Though the U.S.-China tariff war has temporarily de-escalated, U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports remain in place. Listen as economists @AllisonSchrager and @Menloferry debate "Are Tariffs Good for the Economy?" Schrager questions executive control over tariffs, while Ferry argues tariffs have historically driven growth. Recorded in partnership with @business.

My latest Substack blog.

My latest blog....

@Brad_Setser China's large ($1T) & growing surpluses make it an unacceptable citizen of the world economy. Since currencies don't deliver balanced trade, other actions r necessary. Any other action is better than the solution we saw in 1914, war.

And while I love Goldman's paper, I think a strong case can be made that China's reported current account surplus would already be approaching 1% of World GDP if China hadn't changed its BoP methodology in 2022 ... 6/6

Powerful article from @greg_ip "China is now the world’s ... largest exporter, but ... It has never believed in balanced trade nor comparative advantage. Even as it imported critical technology from the West, its long-term goal was always self-sufficiency Nice chart too 1/

My latest blog on the five key categories driving the affordability crisis.

My latest blog post.

My latest blog.

CPA chief economist emeritus @menloferry is back to school, recently speaking to students at the University of Florida’s new Semiconductor Institute (@uf_fsi_) in Gainesville. “@UF is building a tech manufacturing sector...I think it's a great strategy.” tinyurl.com/y96fvbn9

Economists suffer from "tariff derangement syndrome." Imaginary consumer price increases are just one of many things economists are getting wrong about tariffs. More in my latest blog post.

The Consumer Price Index undercounts inflation due to so-called quality adjustments. Here's a way to fix it. #CPI #CPIInflation #BLS

My latest blog: secrets of Singapore's economic success and what American can learn.

Shocking story of how Chinese agent tried to recruit a Stanford undergrad. US universities, esp those doing leading-edge STEM work, like @Stanford, @MIT and @Harvard must block all Chinese students. This is unacceptable state-sponsored espionage. thetimes.com/us/news-today/…

@Noahpinion @michaelxpettis is 100% correct that productivity growth OVER TIME is much more important than consumer welfare or cheap imports at any single moment. The US grows 2%/yr by borrowing 3% of GDP every year from foreigners. That is unsustainable.

Agree that this is complete nonsense. Every basic trade theory -- Ricardo, Heckscher-Ohlin, Krugman -- will show how cheaper imports increase the welfare of workers on average.