Greg Ip

16.1K posts

Greg Ip

Greg Ip

@greg_ip

Chief economics commentator for The Wall Street Journal. A fox, not a hedgehog. Read my articles here: https://t.co/EAV42eSvPW

Washington, D.C. Katılım Ocak 2011
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Greg Ip
Greg Ip@greg_ip·
Hyperscaler capex on track to exceed national defense spending.* AI is no longer just a tailwind, it's hurricane-strength weather system distorting everything in the economy. AI is pumping up stocks, profits, and depressing workers and wages. My column: wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-is-…
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Greg Ip
Greg Ip@greg_ip·
"Both political parties increasingly want to tilt the legal system against their opposition, and Polis’s decision for clemency in Peters’s case is a rare repudiation of that tendency." -- @jawillick
Jason Willick@jawillick

CO Gov. Jared Polis outraged his party by granting clemency to an “election denier.” But election denial is not a crime; Tina Peters broke the law by helping someone impersonate a government employee — not by doubting Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory.

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Peter John Lambert
Peter John Lambert@pj_lambert·
Is GenAI causing the relative decline in early-career hiring? Our latest research finds that these effects may be conflated with another important driver: the rise of WFH arrangements (1/N)
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Nick Timiraos
Nick Timiraos@NickTimiraos·
This is a hawkish speech from Waller. While he doesn’t think hikes are needed in the near-term, he comes across as quite troubled by recent inflation developments. I’ll thread a few highlights:
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Greg Ip
Greg Ip@greg_ip·
2/ Debt & inflation are both bad for bonds; populism makes both worse. All 3 may be feeding on each other. Inflation makes voters angry and governments less willing to impose austerity. Populists more likely to resort to fiscal dominance to keep rates down.
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Greg Ip
Greg Ip@greg_ip·
These two charts show the step-rise in trend federal deficits and inflation over the last 3 cycles. Makes you wonder why bond yields took this long to get to this level. My column discusses: wsj.com/economy/centra…
Greg Ip tweet mediaGreg Ip tweet media
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Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center
📚What we’re reading 🇨🇳 For decades, U.S. presidents have pushed China to scale back its industrial policy in the name of fairness. But today’s challenge is far broader: Beijing’s emerging “industrial policy of everything.” @greg_ip writes for @WSJ ⬇️ wsj.com/world/china/be…
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Greg Ip
Greg Ip@greg_ip·
@RobAtkinsonITIF Actually, upper income cohorts are the most positive towards AI, lower income cohorts the most negative. There isn't much correlation between education and attitude. Anyway, I thought we had learned that elites had no effect on public opinion (or elections).
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Robert D. Atkinson
Robert D. Atkinson@RobAtkinsonITIF·
@greg_ip Because the US political econ and elite is the most anti-tech in American history
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Zachary Halaschak
Zachary Halaschak@zhalaschak·
Also some Fed news: I asked Trump this morning about Warsh starting as Fed chair -- I pointed out investors are now pegging a higher chance of a rate HIKE rather than cut by end of year and asked him whether he thinks Warsh will deliver a cut "I'm going to let him do what he wants to do. He's a very talented guy, he's going to be fine, he's going to do a good job"
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Thorstrike
Thorstrike@rospigge60559·
Something very interesting is happening in Europe right now. France buys Swedish GlobalEye. Sweden looks at French FDI frigates. Germany shows growing interest in GlobalEye. France just ordered additional Saab Giraffe radars. This is starting to look far bigger than normal arms deals. 👀 For decades, Europe mostly bought American architecture: AWACS Patriot Aegis Link systems US battle management US cloud/network integration The US didn’t just sell weapons. It sold the nervous system of NATO. France officially ordered Saab GlobalEye AEW&C aircraft with options for more. France brings the nuclear umbrella. Sweden brings the eyes and the network. Together, they may be building the backbone of Europe’s future deterrence.” 😎 That is a massive signal. France is not just another customer. It is: Europe’s leading military power the EU’s only nuclear power after Brexit a country obsessed with strategic sovereignty Meanwhile Germany reportedly has GlobalEye in “pole position” for its future AEW&C requirement. � Defense News If Germany joins France and Sweden around the same sensor architecture… …Europe suddenly gains: common air picture interoperable kill chains shared sensor fusion reduced dependence on US systems And this is where it gets fascinating. France brings: 🇫🇷 nuclear deterrence 🇫🇷 naval power 🇫🇷 missiles and strategic reach Sweden brings: 🇸🇪 radar dominance 🇸🇪 EW/sensor fusion 🇸🇪 distributed warfare doctrine 🇸🇪 airborne surveillance Germany brings: 🇩🇪 industrial scale 🇩🇪 funding 🇩🇪 manufacturing depth And Washington is probably watching this very carefully. Because historically the US didn’t just dominate through military power. It dominated through architecture. Who owns the networks often matters more than who owns the platform.
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Julian Gewirtz
Julian Gewirtz@JulianGewirtz·
My latest: "Trump Is Chinamaxxing" juliangewirtz.substack.com/p/trump-is-chi… Having helped to solidify the framework of strategic competition during his first term, Trump is—at least temporarily—presiding over yet another careening shift in strategy. One of the most revealing examples of the transforming U.S. approach to China is something that hasn’t gotten enough attention: how the White House is portraying the visit in videos and photographs. Trump, strange as it is to say, is Chinamaxxing. Read it on Substack: juliangewirtz.substack.com/p/trump-is-chi…
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Greg Ip
Greg Ip@greg_ip·
"Children who learn to read and write on tablets often cannot tell letters like b and d apart, because they have never physically felt with their bodies what it takes to actually produce those letters on a page."
Ihtesham Ali@ihtesham2005

A Norwegian neuroscientist spent 20 years proving that the act of writing by hand changes the human brain in ways typing physically cannot, and almost nobody outside her field has read the paper. Her name is Audrey van der Meer. She runs a brain research lab in Trondheim, and the paper that closed the argument was published in 2024 in a journal called Frontiers in Psychology. The finding is brutal enough that it should have changed every classroom on Earth. The experiment was simple. She recruited 36 university students and put each one in a cap with 256 sensors pressed against their scalp to record brain activity. Words flashed on a screen one at a time. Sometimes the students wrote the word by hand on a touchscreen using a digital pen, and sometimes they typed the same word on a keyboard. Every neural response was recorded for the full five seconds the word stayed on screen. Then her team looked at the part of the data most researchers had ignored for years, which is how different parts of the brain were communicating with each other during the task. When the students wrote by hand, the brain lit up everywhere at once. The regions responsible for memory, sensory integration, and the encoding of new information were all firing together in a coordinated pattern that spread across the entire cortex. The whole network was awake and connected. When the same students typed the same word, that pattern collapsed almost completely. Most of the brain went quiet, and the connections between regions that had been alive seconds earlier were nowhere to be found on the EEG. Same word, same brain, same person, and two completely different neurological events. The reason turned out to be something nobody had really paid attention to before her work. Writing by hand is not one motion but a sequence of thousands of tiny micro-movements coordinated with your eyes in real time, where each letter is a different shape that requires the brain to solve a slightly different spatial problem. Your fingers, wrist, vision, and the parts of your brain that track position in space are all working together to produce one letter, then the next, then the next. Typing throws all of that away. Every key on a keyboard requires the exact same finger motion regardless of which letter you are pressing, which means the brain has almost nothing to integrate and almost no problem to solve. Van der Meer said it plainly in her interviews. Pressing the same key with the same finger over and over does not stimulate the brain in any meaningful way, and she pointed out something that should scare every parent who handed their kid an iPad. Children who learn to read and write on tablets often cannot tell letters like b and d apart, because they have never physically felt with their bodies what it takes to actually produce those letters on a page. A decade before her, two researchers at Princeton ran the same fight using a completely different method and ended up at the same answer. Pam Mueller and Daniel Oppenheimer tested 327 students across three experiments, where half took notes on laptops with the internet disabled and half took notes by hand, before testing everyone on what they actually understood from the lectures they had watched. The handwriting group won by a wide margin on every question that required real understanding rather than surface recall. The reason was hiding in the transcripts of what the two groups had actually written down. The laptop students typed almost word for word, capturing more total content but processing almost none of it as they went, while the handwriting students physically could not write fast enough to transcribe a lecture in real time, which forced them to listen carefully, decide what actually mattered, and put it in their own words on the page. That single act of choosing what to keep was the learning itself, and the keyboard had quietly skipped the choosing and skipped the learning along with it. Two studies. Two countries. Same answer. Handwriting makes the brain work. Typing lets it coast. Every note you have ever typed instead of written went into your brain through a thinner pipe. Every meeting, every book highlight, every idea you captured on your phone instead of on paper was processed at half depth. You did not forget those things because your memory is bad. You forgot them because typing never woke the part of the brain that would have made them stick. The fix is the thing your grandmother already knew. Pick up a pen. Write the thing down. The slower road is the faster one.

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Bobby Kogan
Bobby Kogan@BBKogan·
Like you could use this method to set up a reparations fund or a green energy transition fund or a free health care fund. Even completely setting aside the obvious corruption here, it’s clearly the sort of thing that could break everything if normalized.
Bobby Kogan@BBKogan

The way the Judgment Fund is being used for the Trump “settlement” creates a profound loophole in the Appropriations Clause, allowing an administration to fund any program it wants without an appropriation. Sort of thing the Court needs to stop.

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Marc Goldwein
Marc Goldwein@MarcGoldwein·
Dang -- yields keep rising. They are more than half a percent above projections. If that continues, we'll be almost $2 trillion deeper in debt after a decade.
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