Kiodim

老实说，现在长鑫和长江存储的这种互相切入对方赛道，加上韩国产能放弃低端往高端走，让我非常担心存储行业会重蹈当年面板的覆辙。 面板行业走过的路就是这样：京东方、华星、惠科同时期LCD大规模扩产，产品高度同质化，2018到2019年打了一轮惨烈的价格战，全行业亏损。最后三家合计占了全球LCD产能的65%，但利润很薄，必须靠控产保价才能维持盈利。赢了份额，没赢到钱。而韩国三星和LG主动退凾LCD全力押OLED，把低端让出来自己吃高端利润。 现在存储行业的结构太像了。韩国三大家往HBM和先进DRAM集中，主动退出DDR3、DDR4，长江和长鑫的产能填进去。短期供不应求谁都能吃饱，但两家背后都是地方国资加国家大基金，都有做大规模的动力，都没有主动收缩的激励。面板当年就是这个结构，每一家背后都有地方政府撑着，谁都不愿意先停下来。 留给长江和长鑫的窗口期可能比面板还短。面板的技术代际切换是十年级别的，存储是两三年。扩产能只是买了入场券，294层之后能不能继续往上走，才决定这张入场券值不值钱。

感觉……烂尾了 倒不是说毫无战果，只是和当初开打的时候的构想不太一样 特朗普确实刀杀了很多伊朗高层，但最后不过是搞了个伊核协议第二，这和奥巴马那协议区别不大啊，那当初撕毁伊核协议干什么 不是说没啥好吹的，我思来想去，发现能吹的就是杀了很多神棍系卫队系的高官。但当初不是说要变更政权吗

这些个案例其实根本不需要媒体报，身边就有，还不少。 本科同学创业自己开公司，园林设计，可想而知的结局，现在公司倒闭员工遣散还欠了一屁股债。 单位手下小朋友21年高位买房上车，之后夫妻俩一起降薪无奖金，去年又要了娃，现在已经不会笑了。 朋友离职之后合伙投资了餐饮，开了几个月一看形势不好立马当机立断散伙了。也算果决的。 真的略多，不一一细数了。 我希望他们过得都好，但是形势好像不这么想。

英文区已经炸了。想象一下，你作为儿童，来参加白宫的复活节活动，庭院里遍布着跟拍的记者、欢快的孩子。 然后特朗普领着复活节兔子，在台上对孩子们说，世界上没有比伊朗更敌对的国家了，随后发表了一系列战争演讲。 相当于带孩子去迪士尼，园长领着米老鼠讲国际形势。

Axios: U.S., Iran, and mediators discuss 45‑day ceasefire

100,000 American troops in Europe = a free ride for Europeans? Let's check the facts. 🔹 American military bases are not free Germany, Italy, Spain, and Romania pay for the infrastructure, land, utilities, and civilian personnel of US bases. Germany alone contributes over $1 billion annually to support the American military presence on its soil. 🔹 Europe is the largest customer of the American defense industry F-35s, Patriot missiles, HIMARS, Apaches — all purchased by Europeans with real money. Every security alarm in Europe translates into contracts for Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Boeing. 🔹 American bases in Europe don't only protect Europe Ramstein in Germany coordinates operations across Africa and the Middle East. Sigonella in Italy covers the Mediterranean and North Africa. Romania secures the eastern flank and the Black Sea. These are global American strategic assets — not neighborhood security for Europeans. 🔹 Command is American, not European NATO is always led by an American Supreme Commander (SACEUR). Europe contributes troops, bases, and money — but America holds the controls. Those who control the structure are not the ones getting a free ride. 🔹 The nuclear umbrella is not altruism American nuclear deterrence in Europe keeps the dollar as the world's reserve currency, keeps European markets open to US corporations, and legitimizes American hegemony against Russia and China. But what would actually happen if America withdrew its troops from Europe? 🔹 For America — immediate strategic losses Without bases in Europe, American response time to any crisis in Europe, Africa, or the Middle East grows from hours to days. Ramstein, Sigonella, and Incirlik cannot be replaced by aircraft carriers. Infrastructure built over decades disappears overnight. 🔹 The American defense industry loses its biggest customer A Europe without the US umbrella will build its own defense industry — and fast. Airbus Military, KNDS, Leonardo, and Rheinmetall will take the contracts that Lockheed and Raytheon currently win. Billions of dollars shift from America to Europe. 🔹 The dollar weakens Dollar hegemony is partly sustained by American global military credibility. A withdrawal from Europe signals to the world that America no longer guarantees the postwar order. Alternatives — the euro, the yuan — become more attractive as global reserve options. 🔹 Russia wins without firing a single shot Not necessarily through immediate invasion — but through political influence, energy pressure, and the gradual destabilization of countries on the eastern frontier. The Baltic states, Poland, and Romania enter a security grey zone that no one can guarantee quickly. 🔹 China watches and draws conclusions about Taiwan A precedent of withdrawal from Europe sends a direct signal to Beijing: American commitments are negotiable. The cost of deterrence in the Pacific rises exponentially. Withdrawal is not isolationism. It is strategic abdication. America would not be leaving Europe because it no longer has interests there. It would be leaving while ignoring that those very interests are what make it a superpower. The "free ride" narrative doesn't describe Europe. It describes exactly what America has in Europe.

赢麻了。

During a state visit, Macron was "welcomed like a star" by his "Korean fan club." Source: BFMTV