PaperFlow
768 posts
@PaperFlow8
ex tradfi options-mm of 5 years. oxford alum
positioning, all d neutral makers have cleaned up their downside (i.e. -8% slide would result in them picking up significant negative deltas which they will likely have to hedge). no risk manager will allow them to be short puts which puts a floor on the dside there's aggressive call overriding flow month-on-month by "yield seekers", provides a nice catalyst to the up if we break 72/2.3 i think the era to play the downside vol aggressively was october 25 to feb 26, and now we are entering regime change where there is a greater probability downticks will be absorbed here vs jan opex
Stanley Druckenmiller on the time George Soros told him to size up: Druckenmiller put on a $5B bet. Soros asked, “Why are you only doing $5 billion?” “This is a one-way bet. It’s not the way you manage risk. You should do $15 billion.” Then Soros added: “Diversification is very overrated.” Do you agree?
A lot of posts I see on my timeline about why we need more financial regulation, why crypto needs to be more like tradfi etc. I HEAVILY disagree. Liquidation candles, huge cascades and the ensuing volatility is what makes crypto a lot more interesting to trade and be a speculator on versus tradfi assets such as stocks, bonds, index... These have and should be a feature of crypto. Its what makes crypto such brutal and yet so beautiful as an asset class. Just because you can't stomach the vol, dont call for circuit breakers, more regulation and ruin the most beautiful asset class ever created. All you need is 1000 dollars and a pair of balls to make it in this space. Play these candles, play the liquidations, play the predatory nature of this industry to your advantage. Otherwise leave and go long index and gold etfs like everyone else and get your 15% per year. No crying in the casino
