swasticoiner.eth
3.3K posts
If it wasn't obvious already, I have a position in $SPCX. Yes, it's overvalued. Yes, it's massively inflated. Yes, the hype is insane. And yes, everyone seems to be scrambling to get exposure. Rather than trying to justify it purely from a revenue or net profit perspective, you need to understand the current market dynamics. Only around 4% of the float is publicly trading, with roughly 96% locked up until the first major unlock in August. At the same time, this is arguably the most hyped IPO we have ever seen. Right now, demand appears to be significantly outweighing supply. My thesis is fairly simple, setups like this often create the perfect environment for aggressive squeezes. There are plenty of people shorting it purely because it's fundamentally overvalued, which, to be fair, it is. But when demand massively outweighs available supply, fundamentals can take a back seat for a lot longer than people expect. The problem is that when everyone wants exposure and only a small fraction of shares are available, price can move far beyond what most people think is reasonable. I could be completely wrong, and if I am, I'll just end up holding more $SPCX for the next few years. But what we're seeing here feels fairly unique, a bubble on top of a bubble. Eventually, every bubble bursts. But with only 4% of the float currently trading, I don't think this thing is about to die anytime soon.
Seeing loads of people talking about $SPCX. My advice? Never bet against the house. BlackRock, Fidelity, Vanguard don't fuck about. They own the market. Overpriced? Doesn't matter. Overvalued? Doesn't matter. The whole stock market is a bubble on top of a bubble and nothing's changing that anytime soon. The quicker you accept it, the better. I think they squeeze the f*ck out of everybody.
