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The Scarcity Trade
4.9K posts
The Scarcity Trade
@ScarcityTrade
Investing in the bottlenecks: power, data centers, land, oil, semis, and DRAM. The physical constraints behind the AI age. FAANG AI Engineer. $025560.KS
New York City 参加日 Ekim 2023
2.2K フォロー中1.9K フォロワー
@rosyprosperity +1 I think a multiple in between $DELL and $CSCO makes sense for $HPE.
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I have exited $DELL entirely and rotated into more $HPE $FLEX
I think HPE deserves even higher multiple than DELL to be honest, while currently they are at around half the forward earnings multiple of Dell.
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Don’t bet against officials trying to get re-elected. Always ride the positive train avoid the doomers.
Gavin Baker@GavinSBaker
Kinda wild how wrong most energy experts were about the Straits of Hormuz. What were the root causes of the error? China had more reserves than anticipated, US flexed up exports faster and more ships were actually transiting the straits via the Omani route? Genuinely curious.
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Kinda wild how wrong most energy experts were about the Straits of Hormuz.
What were the root causes of the error? China had more reserves than anticipated, US flexed up exports faster and more ships were actually transiting the straits via the Omani route?
Genuinely curious.
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@Raunav410657 @ThematicTrader Nice work! Have a small pos
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$BWEN hitting $4.50! @ThematicTrader and I wrote it up below $4. Still has a long way to go with the way OEMs are scaling.
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Still don’t like anything more than Mirae, SK Inc and WUS PCB. Mirae is clean torque no NAV or pref dislocation Chinese dram exposure order book doubling etc.
SK Inc I like because of treasury share cancellation, SK square value up and SK Hynix US ADR listing. Three engines of value catalyst realization.
$2316.TW WUS PCB now has two activists trying to close the 80% discount to NAV and company plans on English investor materials release more regular reporting likely and detailed NAV calculation.
The other names are statistically cheap specifically Daeduck Electronics 2PB prefs as well as Korea Circuit prefs but no clear way for value gap to close. Could be worth a small swing though.
The rest are not as cheap as the above names and/or have even less prospects of market price to value dislocation closing.
The Scarcity Trade@ScarcityTrade
Investigating these names right now: $35320K.KS $ACMR $006260.KS $009155.KS $0148.HK $6191.TW $VLX.L $032830.KS $2316.TW $00781.KS $025560.KQ $004800.KS $000880.KS $034730.KS $267250.KS $ABS.AX $00088K.KS $1133.HK $KAP.L $ASB.AX $FCT.MI $6855.T $6088.HK $MGA.TO $036710.KQ $5483.TWO
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6.14 (Week 23) Portfolio Update!
$JBL 19.01%
$RDDT 14.20%
$AAOI 13.48%
$SIVE 11.01%
$GLW 7.67%
$062040.KS 5.57%
$LPK 5.15%
$AEHR 4.79%
$LASR 3.67%
$FORM 3.39%
$MRVL 3.32%
$COHR 3.30%
$APP 3.27%
$CIEN 2.06%
$XFAB 1.77%
$VIAV 1.76%
$NOW 1.48%
$025560.KS 1.05%
$INFQ 0.88%
$TRT 0.41%
Current Value 152k (WoW +3.9%, YTD [__]%)
Deposit: 0 (YTD: $3k)
Withdraw: $0 (YTD: $6k)
Bought:
$MRVL (new)
$JBL (341% increase)
$AEHR (235% increase)
$GLW (18.2% increase)
$SIVE.ST (13.9% increase)
Sold:
$NOK (-100%)
$MU (-100%)
$APP (-60% reduced)
$AAOI (-29.7% reduced)
$RDDT (-7% reduced)
Optic is my favorite play.
Gijun Park@PaRk_Invest
6.7 (Week 22) Portfolio Update! $AAOI 20.83% $RDDT 16.97% $SIVE 9.74% $APP 9.53% $GLW 6.68% $NOK 5.90% $LPK 5.19% $062040.KS 4.87% $JBL 4.11% $LASR 3.60% $COHR 3.35% $CIEN 3.34% $FORM 2.95% $XFAB 1.85% $MU 1.77% $NOW 1.69% $VIAV 1.63% $AEHR 1.35% $INFQ 1.00% $025560.KS 0.77% $TRT 0.40% Current Value 146k (WoW -2.1%, YTD -2.1%) Deposit: 0 (YTD: $3k) Withdraw: $6k (YTD: $6k) Bought: $XFAB (new) $JBL (new) $CIEN (new) $VIAV (new) $AEHR (new) $INFQ (new) $NOW (new) $MU (new) $SIVE.ST (106% increase) $NOK (300% increase ) $AAOI (169% increase) $GLW (57.1% increase) Sold: $COHR (7.1% reduced) $APP (-37.5% reduced) $RDDT (-2.8% reduced) $DELL (-100%) $ETN (-100%) $MRVL (-100%) $MCHP (-100%) I am very very confident on optics for longterm. I sold $DELL around $450ish and $MRVL around $315 ish I believe $MRVL is a wonderful company, but pumping 50% in one day on ceo comment was hard to resist to sell. If $MRVL goes down more I will consider buying back I Personally do not favor memory sector but $MU looked juicy so I bought more. There is tons of insider buying in $NOK I am confident that this is a buy signal. $AAOI , $SIVE seems very promising, so I bought more. $CIEN had a wonderful Quarter but it dropped so I initiated a position.
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Wait till those lockups end and this thing is pulling a $FIG $SNOW $CBRS
Pythia Cap: Partially Conductive@PythiaR
This will end like every other low float pump always does
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They liquidated their MBS portfolio to become more of an capital-light asset manager. First to fund TJIM but those mark to markets on that portfolio likely to go away. Granted I think they want to use cash flow to do buybacks and rebuild that portfolio (which I hope they don't and acquire more asset managers for fee income). I don't see why this should not trade at 10x $1 EPS. Once $ORC starts issuing again this EPS could again grow massively. Then I don't think a 10x is fair.
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Not cyclical anymore! They now mainly earn money on $ORC equity. This is likely not going to go down as $ORC earnings are directly proportional to the equity they can deploy, in fact they have been issuing aggressively. They also now own TJIM another asset manager that is not cyclical. In fact, earnings I expect to only go up. Only thing egregious is exec comp but it's whatever I'll take my 2.5x future earnings. They are not the mREIT they used to be.
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@JRambo0810 @DimitryNakhla Growth decaying at 2% a year, assuming that's held to perpetuity with negative growth, I estimate ballpark fair value is close to 10x FCF. I want better than fair value so 5x FCF. (This is all less semrush)
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@DimitryNakhla Would you pay 8x FCF for a biz growing bookings 10% organically?
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You don’t often see $ADBE bulls discussing this. Perhaps the company’s future is not as clear as the bulls make it out to seem. Cheap, on its own, is not enough of a reason to own a business.
Thomas Chua@SteadyCompound
Adobe was a textbook compounder for years. Now: organic growth decelerating for the tenth straight quarter, the CEO on his way out, the CFO too. Buy and verify, not buy and forget.
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The Scarcity Trade がリツイート
interesting fact on mirae corp - $025560.KS
the last contract (1.2% if the valuation) $2.7B KRW is just for a TINY period june-august 2026
it's litteraly a cash cow getting millions $ from cxmt ymtc and skhynix every few weeks
already $40B won contracted only this quarter lol
haYN Capital@killapabkai
Like clockwork another 2.7B won order from YMTC for $025560.KS Mirae Corp test handlers Announced contracts in Q2 now amount to ~40B won crazy gem
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Investigating these names right now:
$35320K.KS
$ACMR
$006260.KS
$009155.KS
$0148.HK
$6191.TW
$VLX.L
$032830.KS
$2316.TW
$00781.KS
$025560.KQ
$004800.KS
$000880.KS
$034730.KS
$267250.KS
$ABS.AX
$00088K.KS
$1133.HK
$KAP.L
$ASB.AX
$FCT.MI
$6855.T
$6088.HK
$MGA.TO
$036710.KQ
$5483.TWO
Filipino
Honestly, activists hopping on and pressuring the board is a great great first start. I think you'd need more regular investor comms, english comms, a detailed accounting of the hidden NAV. Then you'd need a detailed time bound plan by the board on how they plan to close discount.
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@ScarcityTrade What catalyst does it take in your opinion to trigger a Mirae re-rate?
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For anyone following $2316.TW the biggest question was how and when the value will be unlocked. We now have two activists with 5% of the business owned on board. I think things are looking on the up here: mms.businesswire.com/media/20260615…
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