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The Scarcity Trade
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The Scarcity Trade
@ScarcityTrade
Investing in the bottlenecks: power, data centers, land, oil, semis, and DRAM. The physical constraints behind the AI age. FAANG AI Engineer. $025560.KS
New York City Katılım Ekim 2023
2.2K Takip Edilen1.9K Takipçiler
The Scarcity Trade retweetledi
Still don’t like anything more than Mirae, SK Inc and WUS PCB. Mirae is clean torque no NAV or pref dislocation Chinese dram exposure order book doubling etc.
SK Inc I like because of treasury share cancellation, SK square value up and SK Hynix US ADR listing. Three engines of value catalyst realization.
$2316.TW WUS PCB now has two activists trying to close the 80% discount to NAV and company plans on English investor materials release more regular reporting likely and detailed NAV calculation.
The other names are statistically cheap specifically Daeduck Electronics 2PB prefs as well as Korea Circuit prefs but no clear way for value gap to close. Could be worth a small swing though.
The rest are not as cheap as the above names and/or have even less prospects of market price to value dislocation closing.
The Scarcity Trade@ScarcityTrade
Investigating these names right now: $35320K.KS $ACMR $006260.KS $009155.KS $0148.HK $6191.TW $VLX.L $032830.KS $2316.TW $00781.KS $025560.KQ $004800.KS $000880.KS $034730.KS $267250.KS $ABS.AX $00088K.KS $1133.HK $KAP.L $ASB.AX $FCT.MI $6855.T $6088.HK $MGA.TO $036710.KQ $5483.TWO
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6.14 (Week 23) Portfolio Update!
$JBL 19.01%
$RDDT 14.20%
$AAOI 13.48%
$SIVE 11.01%
$GLW 7.67%
$062040.KS 5.57%
$LPK 5.15%
$AEHR 4.79%
$LASR 3.67%
$FORM 3.39%
$MRVL 3.32%
$COHR 3.30%
$APP 3.27%
$CIEN 2.06%
$XFAB 1.77%
$VIAV 1.76%
$NOW 1.48%
$025560.KS 1.05%
$INFQ 0.88%
$TRT 0.41%
Current Value 152k (WoW +3.9%, YTD [__]%)
Deposit: 0 (YTD: $3k)
Withdraw: $0 (YTD: $6k)
Bought:
$MRVL (new)
$JBL (341% increase)
$AEHR (235% increase)
$GLW (18.2% increase)
$SIVE.ST (13.9% increase)
Sold:
$NOK (-100%)
$MU (-100%)
$APP (-60% reduced)
$AAOI (-29.7% reduced)
$RDDT (-7% reduced)
Optic is my favorite play.
Gijun Park@PaRk_Invest
6.7 (Week 22) Portfolio Update! $AAOI 20.83% $RDDT 16.97% $SIVE 9.74% $APP 9.53% $GLW 6.68% $NOK 5.90% $LPK 5.19% $062040.KS 4.87% $JBL 4.11% $LASR 3.60% $COHR 3.35% $CIEN 3.34% $FORM 2.95% $XFAB 1.85% $MU 1.77% $NOW 1.69% $VIAV 1.63% $AEHR 1.35% $INFQ 1.00% $025560.KS 0.77% $TRT 0.40% Current Value 146k (WoW -2.1%, YTD -2.1%) Deposit: 0 (YTD: $3k) Withdraw: $6k (YTD: $6k) Bought: $XFAB (new) $JBL (new) $CIEN (new) $VIAV (new) $AEHR (new) $INFQ (new) $NOW (new) $MU (new) $SIVE.ST (106% increase) $NOK (300% increase ) $AAOI (169% increase) $GLW (57.1% increase) Sold: $COHR (7.1% reduced) $APP (-37.5% reduced) $RDDT (-2.8% reduced) $DELL (-100%) $ETN (-100%) $MRVL (-100%) $MCHP (-100%) I am very very confident on optics for longterm. I sold $DELL around $450ish and $MRVL around $315 ish I believe $MRVL is a wonderful company, but pumping 50% in one day on ceo comment was hard to resist to sell. If $MRVL goes down more I will consider buying back I Personally do not favor memory sector but $MU looked juicy so I bought more. There is tons of insider buying in $NOK I am confident that this is a buy signal. $AAOI , $SIVE seems very promising, so I bought more. $CIEN had a wonderful Quarter but it dropped so I initiated a position.
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Wait till those lockups end and this thing is pulling a $FIG $SNOW $CBRS
Pythia Cap: Partially Conductive@PythiaR
This will end like every other low float pump always does
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They liquidated their MBS portfolio to become more of an capital-light asset manager. First to fund TJIM but those mark to markets on that portfolio likely to go away. Granted I think they want to use cash flow to do buybacks and rebuild that portfolio (which I hope they don't and acquire more asset managers for fee income). I don't see why this should not trade at 10x $1 EPS. Once $ORC starts issuing again this EPS could again grow massively. Then I don't think a 10x is fair.
English
Not cyclical anymore! They now mainly earn money on $ORC equity. This is likely not going to go down as $ORC earnings are directly proportional to the equity they can deploy, in fact they have been issuing aggressively. They also now own TJIM another asset manager that is not cyclical. In fact, earnings I expect to only go up. Only thing egregious is exec comp but it's whatever I'll take my 2.5x future earnings. They are not the mREIT they used to be.
English
@JRambo0810 @DimitryNakhla Growth decaying at 2% a year, assuming that's held to perpetuity with negative growth, I estimate ballpark fair value is close to 10x FCF. I want better than fair value so 5x FCF. (This is all less semrush)
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@DimitryNakhla Would you pay 8x FCF for a biz growing bookings 10% organically?
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You don’t often see $ADBE bulls discussing this. Perhaps the company’s future is not as clear as the bulls make it out to seem. Cheap, on its own, is not enough of a reason to own a business.
Thomas Chua@SteadyCompound
Adobe was a textbook compounder for years. Now: organic growth decelerating for the tenth straight quarter, the CEO on his way out, the CFO too. Buy and verify, not buy and forget.
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The Scarcity Trade retweetledi
interesting fact on mirae corp - $025560.KS
the last contract (1.2% if the valuation) $2.7B KRW is just for a TINY period june-august 2026
it's litteraly a cash cow getting millions $ from cxmt ymtc and skhynix every few weeks
already $40B won contracted only this quarter lol
haYN Capital@killapabkai
Like clockwork another 2.7B won order from YMTC for $025560.KS Mirae Corp test handlers Announced contracts in Q2 now amount to ~40B won crazy gem
English
Investigating these names right now:
$35320K.KS
$ACMR
$006260.KS
$009155.KS
$0148.HK
$6191.TW
$VLX.L
$032830.KS
$2316.TW
$00781.KS
$025560.KQ
$004800.KS
$000880.KS
$034730.KS
$267250.KS
$ABS.AX
$00088K.KS
$1133.HK
$KAP.L
$ASB.AX
$FCT.MI
$6855.T
$6088.HK
$MGA.TO
$036710.KQ
$5483.TWO
Filipino
Honestly, activists hopping on and pressuring the board is a great great first start. I think you'd need more regular investor comms, english comms, a detailed accounting of the hidden NAV. Then you'd need a detailed time bound plan by the board on how they plan to close discount.
English
@ScarcityTrade What catalyst does it take in your opinion to trigger a Mirae re-rate?
English
For anyone following $2316.TW the biggest question was how and when the value will be unlocked. We now have two activists with 5% of the business owned on board. I think things are looking on the up here: mms.businesswire.com/media/20260615…
English
Wow both Metrica and Palliser are both pushing $2316.TW to unlock the hidden value in their WUS Kunshan stake. You heard it from me first folks!
businesswire.com/news/home/2026…
businesswire.com/news/home/2026…
The Scarcity Trade@ScarcityTrade
@DaBao_ I think you were the first person to suggest this name but check out $2316.TW. After that $025560.KS.
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Maybe we can get a quantum bid on top of AI and Networking $HPE
Wall St Engine@wallstengine
$HPE partnered with 8 quantum firms, including Intel, IQM, Quantinuum, and Rigetti, to build a hybrid HPC + AI + quantum platform on its Cray backbone.
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The Scarcity Trade retweetledi
Mirae $025560.KS is the most mispriced name in the memory supply chain. Here is the case.
The comparison. Western retail favourites vs a profitable Korean one:
Mirae: $169M cap, $15M Q1 rev +336% YoY, +$4.3M net income (28% margin)
$SIVE: $2.85B cap, $6.5M Q1 rev -22% YoY, EBITDA negative
$AXTI: $6.36B cap, $26.9M Q1 rev +39% YoY, net loss
Mirae is the only profitable one, growing the fastest, at a fraction of the market cap. 2.8x revenue vs 59-110x for the loss makers.
If you price in the last 3 weeks of contracts - fully paid - the company is sitting at 5x P/S.
The ramp. Test handler production:
FY2024: 23 units
FY2025: 90 units
Q1 2026 alone: 72 units
They built 80% of an entire years output in a single quarter. Revenue per handler is steady at 400M KRW, so units map almost linearly to revenue.
If Q2 comes in at anywhere from 90-120 units. The company is fully integrated into the Korean and Chinese memory supply chain.
The valuation. Hold Q1 flat across FY2026 (no unit growth, no price hikes, no backlog premium):
- 83B KRW revenue
- 23.6bn KRW net income
- 4,640 KRW EPS
At Techwings 21x P/E (just the peer multiple, zero premium): 100,000 KRW.
If Hynix agree to supplier demand for 3-4% price hike. This number would be 110-115K KRW
Thats the base case with nothing optimistic added. Pricing power (SK Hynix suppliers pushing 3-4% hikes), unit growth, and backlog premium are all upside on top.
BULL OF BRITAIN@BULLOFBRITAIN
안녕하세요 Korea! The only that rhymes with Mirae is 100K Kind regards, - The Foreigner 🇰🇷 x 🇬🇧
English
@DeepValuePlay @value_bourne At least I didn’t sell my $SNDK!
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@DeepValuePlay @value_bourne Yupp agreed, it’s ok I still made good money on same thesis just with SK Hynix instead. Bet on the lower torque jockey but that’s ok.
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