@MoodyWriter13 It‘s LPKF’s management talking about the volume ramp next year, Philoptics says the same.
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Wonderboy
3.4K posts
Wonderboy
@SonicTed
Interested in commodities, tech, macro picture and frauds
Europe 参加日 Aralık 2015
1.3K フォロー中182 フォロワー
What’s typical in bubbles is that future, hypothetical revenues get pulled into the present, without properly weighing all the uncertainties. Just a few weeks ago, the glass substrate market was still seen as being at least 2–3 years away from meaningful volume. Somehow, that timeline has now been emotionally compressed to about a year.
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@Magnus12316 @MoodyWriter13 They did not “always“ lack execution. Look up LDS. In any case, there is a fairly new management team heading the company, and both the CEO and CFO make a good impression.
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@MoodyWriter13 I realized lots of profits. The story is great, but the stock is clearly no longer cheap. And when something like LPKF goes up 100% in a week, it's usually wise to take profits...
And we all know that they always lacked the execution, also on other growth prospects.CPO years out
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Yes, LIDE from LPKF is the technological leader. But what no one mentions is that TRUMPF showed at Semicon Japan that the two-step process (laser modification + selective etching) can apparently be replicated without infringing LIDE patents, likely by using different laser parameters, alternative glass types, or modified etching chemistry. In the semiconductor world, patents protect specific implementations, not the underlying physical principle. TRUMPF also has excellent access to the semiconductor industry as an established supplier, something LPKF still lacks.
In addition, there is the alliance with Schmid Group. Together, they offer an integrated process chain: laser processing + HiPIMS metallization + SCHMID wet chemistry/RDL, something LPKF cannot provide.
It’s also important to keep the TAM in mind. LPKF’s actual addressable market may only be around €50–150 million in cumulative equipment revenue over several years, split across multiple competitors.
The addressable market doesn’t really exist yet. When will it actually materialize? Definitely not before 2027, more likely later.
That said, I don’t want to speak negatively about LPKF,
this is just something to keep in mind. I hope the company survives long enough for LIDE to finally gain real traction. The core business is eroding, and anyone who has followed the German small-cap market for a while has been hearing about LIDE for years, yet so far, it hasn’t really materialized.
AlmaCap@AlmaCap114204
$LPK, >80% of TGV/metallisation players have already qualified and purchased equipment. Where could valuation go? Some speculation, as glass substrates are an entirely new and emerging market: > Advanced IC substrate market: $14bn organic today, total market → $31bn by 2030 (Yole) > AI/HPC/data centre: estimated quarter to a third of that and the fastest-growing segment. Could be a c.$10bn market by 2030, could be significantly higher given the scale and pace of the AI buildout > If glass becomes standard for AI packaging, which $INTL, Samsung, $TSMC and the entire Korean ecosystem are betting on, then a large share of AI substrate production could flow through LPKF's technology > Every glass core substrate needs TGVs drilled through it. LPKF's LIDE is the leading production-proven method at panel scale (>80% share, with Philoptics as the main competitor) > The equipment layer typically captures 10-15% of end-market value during buildout phases. LPKF's addressable share (TGV formation + singulation + bonding) is perhaps c.30% of that equipment layer. > At a $10bn AI substrate market, that gives LPKF c.$300-450m in annual revenue > Apply $ASML's 10-year median P/S of c.10x and you get c.€3-4bn. Current market cap: ~€250m. That's a 12-16x. I hold a long position in $LPK
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@Magnus12316 @MoodyWriter13 Trumpf is years behind LPKF on glass TGV technology. LPKF has been closely collaborating with major customers (Semco, INTC) for years, and even done bespoke work. That‘s nothing anybody can easily copy. E&R has already dropped out of the race.
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@MoodyWriter13 I was also looking into Trumpf last night. Shouldn't be underestimated. Huge company, much bigger than LPKF and as you said already well established in semi supply chains
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@MoodyWriter13 You talk about small cap hype but then shill
for Nynomic, whose exposure to Aixtron is tiny. The company‘s own mgmt says $AIXA is largely irrelevant as a customer. There is no reason whatsoever to own Nynomic, especially after the unfounded share price spike.
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Nynomic +110% since my article, and it’s still valued at just a little over 1× sales. For a European photonics holding in the current environment, that’s very modest. But what really matters are the fundamentals and I’ve written plenty about those, including in my more recent article.
I definitely could have made money more easily than with this research, it was exhausting. I’ll leave the easy stuff to others 😉
Moody@MoodyWriter13
$AIXA controls ~90% of InP MOCVD reactors and every one ships with LayTec metrology inside, the only provider ensuring atomic-level precision. LayTec is owned by Nynomic (M7U), a tiny German photonics group valued below its book value. open.substack.com/pub/fwriter/p/…
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@ReturnsJourney Careful! Look at their auditor. And then check out their previous auditor. That‘s enough of a red flag for me to never touch the stock.
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A Growing serial acquirer at 2 times forward earnings. Stock up 44% today.
The ebitda is up 65% this year.
This is not fake. This is real, and I will give you the name.
The platform group SE.
No, I am not invested. The market thinks that it's a fraud, or a melting ice cube acquiring to stay alive. It is also a German company, a country known for accounting fraud like Wirecard.
There are warning signs: a lawyer threatens to get insolvency (but this news is under paywall, so it could be B.S to get paywall subscriptions by the newspaper).
Imo: there is serious alpha here if an investigative team of analysts can validate the business in the subsidiaries.
I don't have this capacity, and do not need this to do well, so for this reason: I stay out.
Olivier (Emerging Value)@ReturnsJourney
so the platform group is going ski slope style, incredibly cheap but black box serial acquirer. $TPG ?
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@AlmaCap114204 Interesting. Mgmt is talking about a €470m TAM by 2030 in its latest presentation. Assuming a 70% market share, that would mean €329m revenue for LPKF, very close to your estimate.
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$LPK, >80% of TGV/metallisation players have already qualified and purchased equipment.
Where could valuation go? Some speculation, as glass substrates are an entirely new and emerging market:
> Advanced IC substrate market: $14bn organic today, total market → $31bn by 2030 (Yole)
> AI/HPC/data centre: estimated quarter to a third of that and the fastest-growing segment. Could be a c.$10bn market by 2030, could be significantly higher given the scale and pace of the AI buildout
> If glass becomes standard for AI packaging, which $INTL, Samsung, $TSMC and the entire Korean ecosystem are betting on, then a large share of AI substrate production could flow through LPKF's technology
> Every glass core substrate needs TGVs drilled through it. LPKF's LIDE is the leading production-proven method at panel scale (>80% share, with Philoptics as the main competitor)
> The equipment layer typically captures 10-15% of end-market value during buildout phases. LPKF's addressable share (TGV formation + singulation + bonding) is perhaps c.30% of that equipment layer.
> At a $10bn AI substrate market, that gives LPKF c.$300-450m in annual revenue
> Apply $ASML's 10-year median P/S of c.10x and you get c.€3-4bn. Current market cap: ~€250m. That's a 12-16x.
I hold a long position in $LPK
AlmaCap@AlmaCap114204
$LPK, why am I excited? You don't need to go to China to get glass mate... > Glass core substrates are the future of semiconductor packaging. Intel, Samsung, Absolics, TSMC. They're all building glass core capability for AI packaging. > $LPK sits right in the middle of it. Think ASML for glass, the enabling equipment layer every manufacturer needs. > Their LIDE technology is the dominant process for Through Glass Via fabrication, and their CEO has confirmed an exclusive, paid engagement with a "well-known" US semiconductor partner for CPO-on-glass work. I think this is $INTC. > $LPK's entire market cap today? c.€250m. > Here's a supply chain diagram showing where glass substrates fit alongside $LITE, $COHR, and the other names you know. A couple to call out: - InP / GaAs substrates: that's $AXTI - SOI Wafer: that's $SOI > Every other stage in the supply chain is already bottlenecked or bracing for demand surges.... PS. More thoughts on $LPK's solar business to follow.
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@MoodyWriter13 Finally, LPKF has been talking about LIDE for years, true. SO WHAT? They already generate double digit € m revenue with LIDE and this will soar within the next 12-24 months. The current management did not overpromise on LIDE, the former mgmt did, which is long gone. 5/n
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@MoodyWriter13 You better worry about $SHMD surviving. Stop spreading FUD if you haven‘t done the research. 4/n
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@MoodyWriter13 The core business is going through a soft patch but solar scribing, prototyping, welding and other applications are not going anywhere. And you HOPE the company survives ?! They generated €9m FCF last year and will be EBIT break-even this year. 3/n
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@MoodyWriter13 The addressable market certainly exists already, because 4-5 customers are ramping up volume production right now. High volume ramp to follow in 2027. The core business is eroding? Not really. 2/n
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@MoodyWriter13 Extremely bad take. TAM is growing to almost €500m by 2030, according to LPKF‘s latest presentation. Trumpf is years behind LPKF; the latter has been qualified by heavyweights and has done custom design for selected customers. It will be tough for anybody else to take share 1/n
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@vlmkapital @JKeynesAlpha
Bullish market chatter on $LPK. Several data points worth flagging:
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@ParadisLabs @squirrelspower SEMCO is their customer, so is Intel. $LPK has a 70-80% market share in the TGV glass substrate ecosystem. Most customers are in pilot production but HVM should commence 2027.
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@squirrelspower I'm very intrigued by them given their tech is an enabler for transtion to glass substrates - need to map how they stack up vs Japanese counterparts like Ibiden/Semco
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Right guys, I know so many of X's favourite names have run up 50%-100% over the last week:
Like $SIVE, $IQE, $SOI, $ALRIB etc etc
But if you feel like you've missed the boat, then just do this (kinda follows Druckenmiller's approach):
> initiate a position with 25% of capital straight away
> go away and grow a pair. You'll be fine if you don't have the best cost basis compared to others on X
> DCA the remaining 75% over the next few days / on any 5%-10% dips to build out your position
Very simple
And always bear in mind, being in these names rn (regardless of cost basis), has/will generate you better returns than being in the S&P
Those names still have a long way to run (~2x over Q3), so would view any dips as buying opportunities
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$GXI comes to an agreement with creditors & shows strong interest in its asset (Centor). +18%.
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@SonicTed Nope, I wouldn't bet on $1B. x.com/Fenmagne/statu…
Fenix Vanlangerode@Fenmagne
@alexthegreat183 Yeah looks bad, but they are also selling centor and guiding FCF positive. They bought Centor for $725m in 2015. I think today it's worth more like $450-$700m. Net financial debt is 1.9Be Q3/25. So that would remove at least 25% of it. They say a lot of interested buyers.
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