@kylejhutton @CDNprojections im also thinking AB's exercise will be the same (lose at scc)
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CanadianWatcher
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CanadianWatcher
@TheCDNWatch
I talk about Canada & other things I'm interested in.
The Maze 参加日 Haziran 2018
124 フォロー中215 フォロワー
@kylejhutton @CDNprojections fyi I googled it since it wasn't on wikipedia (under qc election) and they are trying to make some frankenstein map where they combine both proposals and add 2 seats... dk what the result will be since they lost at SCC already
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Just realized I'm going to have to do this with Quebec's new provincial boundaries, our largest provincial legislature!!!
Canada Projections🇨🇦@CDNprojections
Why does it take longer to make a new YAPms map than to make a full electoral model
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📊Alberta separation poll from the Angus Reid Institute:
🔴67% Stay
🔵30% Leave
The debate over AB separation is not taking place between conservatives and progressives, it's occurring within Alberta's conservative movement itself. → 338canada.ca/p/alberta-refe…
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📊Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Research Co.:
🔴LPC 46%
🔵CPC 31%
🟠NDP 11%
⚜️BQ 7% (27% in QC)
🟢GPC 3%
🟣PPC 1%
→ 338canada.com/20260507-res.h…
[Research Co., May 6-8, 2026, n=1,003]
#canpoli
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NEW from Abacus Data: One year after the federal election, the opinion environment remains very positive for the Carney Liberals.
• Government approval hits a new high: 57%
• Liberals lead Conservatives by 10
• Carney net impression: +26
• 55% say his government is a genuine break from Trudeau years
Read more: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit…
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New Abacus Data poll
🔴LPC: 46% (+1%)
🔵CPC: 36% (-)
🟠NDP: 8% (-)
🔷BQ: 6% (-1%)
🟢GPC: 3% (+1%)
⚪OTH/PPC: 1% (-)
(+/- change from last Abacus poll)
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Polling Canada Federal Model Update:
🔴 LPC: 218 (+49)
🔵 CPC: 100 (-44)
⚜️ BQ: 19 (-3)
🟠 NDP: 5 (-2)
🟢 GPC: 1 (-)
(Seat Changes With 2025 Federal Election)
- May 9, 2026 -
Full model article here: open.substack.com/pub/canadianpo…
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Those Who Say They Would Vote For:
Canada:
LPC: 60%
CPC: 49%
NDP: 30%
Quebec:
LPC: 61%
CPC: 33%
NDP: 16%
Ontario:
LPC: 64%
CPC: 52%
NDP: 36%
British Columbia:
LPC: 61%
CPC: 47%
NDP: 40%
Abacus / May 6, 2026
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338Canada🍁federal update | May 10, 2026
🔴LPC 221
----------------majority : 172 seats
🔵CPC 94
⚜️BQ 20
🟠NDP 6
🟢GPC 2
Details here ↓ 338canada.ca/p/338-sunday-u…
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Nova Scotia Electoral Model Update - May 6, 2026
cdnprojections.ca/NS
🟦39 (-4)
🟧14 (+5)
🟥2 (=)
⬛1 (=)
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY
(Change from the 2024 Election)
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Latest Liaison Strategies Quebec poll modeled out
⚜️PQ: 76 seats (+73)
🔴PLQ: 46 seats (+25)
⚫PCQ: 3 seats (+3)
🔵CAQ: 0 seats (-90)
🟠QS: 0 seats (-11)
(+/- change from last election)
⚜️Parti Quebecois Majority Government
Feel free to ask for any ridings/circonscriptions
Charestiste🇨🇦🍁@RealAlbanianPat
New Quebec Liaison Poll/Nouveau sondage Liaison au Québec ⚜️PQ: 32% (+17%) 🔴PLQ: 32% (+18%) 🔵CAQ: 16% (-25%) ⚫PCQ: 11% (-2%) 🟠QS: 7% (-8%) ⚪AUT: 2% (-) (+/- change from last Quebec General Election)/ (+/- variation par rapport au dernier EG)
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British Columbia - Provincial Polling:
CPBC: 46%
NDP: 36%
GPBC: 13%
Angus Reid / April 28, 2026 / n=804
Check out - 338canada.com
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New Quebec Liaison Poll/Nouveau sondage Liaison au Québec
⚜️PQ: 32% (+17%)
🔴PLQ: 32% (+18%)
🔵CAQ: 16% (-25%)
⚫PCQ: 11% (-2%)
🟠QS: 7% (-8%)
⚪AUT: 2% (-)
(+/- change from last Quebec General Election)/
(+/- variation par rapport au dernier EG)
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📊Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Nanos Research:
🔴LPC 45%
🔵CPC 32%
🟠NDP 11%
⚜️BQ 6%
🟢GPC 3%
🟣PPC 1%
→ 338canada.com/20260501-nan.h…
[Nanos Research, April 10-May 1, 2026, n=1,027]
#canpoli
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📊B.C. provincial voting intentions from the Angus Reid Institute:
🔵CPBC 46%
🟠NDP 36%
🟢GPBC 13%
→ 338canada.com/bc/20260426-an…
[Angus Reid Institute, April 24-28, 2026, n=804]
#BCpoli
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📊Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Liaison Strategies:
🔴LPC 45%
🔵CPC 33%
🟠NDP 9%
⚜️BQ 6% (26% in QC)
🟢GPC 2%
🟣PPC 2%
→ 338canada.com/20260426-lia.h…
[Liaison Strategies, April 20-May 2, 2026, n=1,000]
#canpoli
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📊Latest 🇨🇦 federal polls from active firms in past 30 days:
🔴LPC +7, Angus Reid Institute
🔴LPC +9, Abacus Data
🔴LPC +11, Léger
🔴LPC +11, Liaison Strategies
🔴LPC +12, Ipsos
🔴LPC +13, Nanos Research
🔴LPC +14, EKOS
338canada.ca/p/338-sunday-u…
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Ontario - Provincial Polling:
PC: 39%
LIB: 29%
NDP: 20%
GRN: 7%
Others: 5%
Campaign / May 1, 2026
Check out - 338canada.com
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338Canada🍁federal update | May 3, 2026
Details here → 338canada.com/federal.htm
Find your riding here → 338canada.com/districts.htm
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Latest Leger Poll modelled out
🔴LIB: 220 seats (+51)
🔵CON: 104 seats (-40)
⚜️BQ: 19 seats (-3)
🟠NDP: 0 seats (-7)
🟢GRN: 0 seats (-1)
🔴Liberal Majority Government
(+/- change from 2025 election)
Charestiste🇨🇦🍁@RealAlbanianPat
New Leger poll 🔴LPC: 48% (-) 🔵CPC: 37% (+3%) 🟠NDP: 6% (-) 🔷BQ: 6% (-1%) 🟢GPC: 2% (-1%) ⚪OTH/PPC: 1% (-) (+/- change from last Leger poll)
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