Time Preference

the wealth gap isn't widening because of capitalism it's widening because asset owners benefit from monetary expansion while wage earners suffer from currency debasement the cantillon effect isn't a market failure, it's a policy feature

the broken window fallacy persists because destruction is visible while opportunity costs remain unseen this explains why keynesian stimulus policies maintain political popularity despite economic failure

'too big to fail' means 'too big to exist in a free market' when banks know they'll be bailed out, they take excessive risks this isn't capitalism—it's socialism for the financial elite

negative interest rates are economic insanity they punish savers for deferring consumption they reward borrowers for living beyond their means this is how civilizations collapse

the unemployment rate is a statistical fiction it doesn't count discouraged workers who stopped looking it doesn't measure underemployment yet policymakers treat it as gospel truth

They weren't perma bears, they were just perma bearish on fiat, because they knew that in the absence of ound money, the free market cannot function. Has the dollar done well since 1973? We just passed 38 trillion in debt, and the dollar has lost a shit ton of value in the last century.

@TimePreference_ And is there any record of them selling stock prior to the crash and buying it back? Or were they perma-bears? And how do they explain that massive federal spending ended the depression? How do they explain that the US economy has done well since 1973?

the austrians were the only ones who predicted the crash in 1929 they also predicted stagflation in 1973 keynesians were expecting an ‘economic bonanza’ the only ‘bonanza’ is their failure to understand basic austrian business cycle theory

@Muhammad_Okoye Are you that mentally enslaved by Keynesian economics that you don't even know that handwritten notes can be digitalised?

@TimePreference_ Keynes had a website now? In the early 90's? Anyways, I clock out when Yu move from economics to rumours that absolutely have nothing to do with economics. This just tells the world you're beat. 😭

The Keynesian revolution hadn't even happened yet. There were no Keynesians issuing a unified pre-1929 warning, Keynesianism emerged as a response to the crisis, it's not a pre-crisis predictive school. So, not a valid question. But this is what an Austrian(Hayek) was saying a day before the crash 👇🏾

@Yellow_Dog1959 Ludvig Von Mises, Friedrich Hayek, Murray Rothbard... the list goes on

@TimePreference_ Do these great predictors have names? These people would have gone from being middle class to quite rich if they got out in 1929 and bought back when the market was down 50+%.

Keynes kept detailed diaries of his sexual encounters. Among the entries, he listed partners including a “16-year-old under Etna.” He also wrote letters to Lytton Strachey recommending Tunis as a place where “bed and boy” was inexpensive, and referenced places “where the naked boys dance.” These are cited in Michael Holroyd’s biography of Strachey and David Felix’s Keynes: A Critical Life. Here is his own log if you want it. jmaynardkeynes.ucc.ie/mobile-version… I am not just reaching below the belt, but since you asked, here you go. Saifedean Ammous discusses this in more depth in the Bitcoin Standard book

Just when I was begining to take you seriously you hit me with this old lie. I've noticed that it's Austrians who usually reach for this. But it's totally understandable, when beat, you go below the belt. The man existed, his ideologies were still being formed. His disciples hadn't come into the fray to be the least relevant. It's like saying Jesus had disciples before he even met Andrew.

'stimulus' spending doesn't stimulate the economy it redirects resources from productive investments to political pet projects every infrastructure boondoggle is capital that could have funded actual innovation

Furthermore, only Austrian economists were able to predict the collapse of the economies of the former Eastern bloc, as well as the dead-end crisis of the welfare state. These predictions contrast sharply with the inability of general-equilibrium theorists (such as Lange, Taylor, Samuelson, Dickinson and others) to even perceive the insoluble economic-calculation problem that socialism poses

Truth overstretched this is. Firstly what happened was a systemic collapse, what Hayek and Mises talked about and expected was a correction. There's absolutely zero primary source evidence that Mises made a clear prediction, that was documented in real time. Most of these claims like the sources you shared come from secondary Austrians sources, after the fact. He never called Creditanstalt failure years in advance. Being wary about the banking system doesn't equate being specific about an actual crash. This is a theoretical disagreement that is now being framed as some kind of prophecy. Hayek argued that the monetary system was unsustainable and a downturn or correction likely, that's not the same as predicting the great depression,nfor the scale and scope of the collapse was not mentioned. Critiquing something so obvious isn't a prophecy else I can say I predicted the fall of the Naira in 2023/2024. Saying “A serious setback to trade is inevitable” is not the same as predicting the Great Depression. A normal cyclical downturn was called not a systemic collapse. Identifying structural fragility isn't predicting the depression at the scale it occured. If you use that as a standard for what you call a “prediction” then anyone who ones about an unstable boom at any time is a prophet, even if the market crashes years after. If you want to call someone a prophet of the GD, there's Roger Babsin who strictly warned about the crash and how many points the market(Dow Jones) would dip by. But funny how he had been predicting it for years every years, before it actually happened. These fragmented calls were not unique to Austrians but again Austrians always think it's all about them. But right before the crash as at October 1929, Hayek wrote: that there was “no reason to expect a sudden crash”. (See Frame below 👇🏾) Please tell me again that he predicted the Great Depression?

Hayek correctly diagnosed that the Fed's credit expansion of the 1920s created unsustainable malinvestment, and he warned broadly that this boom would end badly. Mises on the other hand made more concrete predictions. And you tell me, what were the Keynesians saying at this time?

And somehow in October 1929, Hayek said; (1) no “sudden crash of the New York stock exchange”; (2) the possibility of a slow fall in stock market prices, and (3) an “outright crisis-like destruction of the present high [sc. price] level should not be feared.” All utterly wrong. This was days before black Monday. This is the opposite of prediction. Even though Austrians would like to have it seems so.

@edenstanwarr Proof? In a system which isn't based on sound money, its completely normal for economists to predict unfavourable outcomes

@TimePreference_ Austrians are always predicting bad things. They have to be right sometimes because bad things do happen. They predicted hyperinflation regularly in recent times, but it hasn't happened.

@BreaVana95363 So which school is that. Your Minnesota High School? There is only one big economics school out of the US, and that is the Chicago School

@TimePreference_ Did they teach you to read in school? I said American school. Where did I say Chicago school?

Mises predicted in 1924 that the large Austrian bank Credit Anstalt would eventually fail, and he turned down a prestigious job at another large Austrian bank in 1929 because he did not want his name associated with its coming failure. He also wrote a full analysis of Irving Fisher's monetary views, published in 1928, where he targeted Fisher's reliance on price indexes as a key vulnerability that would bring about the Great Depression. Hayek argued in the spring of 1929 that a serious setback to trade was inevitable, since the "easy money" policy initiated by the US Federal Reserve in July 1927 had prolonged the boom for two years beyond when it should have ended. The collapse would be due to overinvestment in securities and real estate, financed by credit creation. Sources: @K-Paper-Dinner-1-Skidelsky.pdf" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">ineteconomics.org/uploads/papers… mises.org/online-book/sk…

Mises and Hayek, according to this account, said: “Oh by the way there's going to be a great depression in 1929”. 🤣🤣🤣🤣 How come no Austrian predicted the GFC? You know, the “Minsky moment”, it's called Minsky for a reason. Can you guess why that is? Sure you can. PK > AE

@tohonestycom What has that got to do with their predictions?

@TimePreference_ TBF they got lucky. e.g. they did not factor economic rent into they ideas. It must have been coincidence then.

The Chicago School? Goodness, you are lost. They had no clue about the crash. Sherwin Rosen stated the following: ‘the collapse of central planning in the past decade has come as a surprise to most of us’ (Rosen, 1997, pp. 139–152). And Ronald Coase himself said the following words: ‘nothing I’d read or known suggested that the collapse was going to occur’ (Coase, 1997, p. 45).

@TimePreference_ Austrian school was as much as a fraud as keynes. Both were monetarists. The only scientific school of economic was and is "the amwrican system political economics".

@Muhammad_Okoye Mises and Hayek both predicted the Great Depression. A simple google search will take you there.

Lies. You lot have been predicting a crash for almost a decade now and it hasn't happened. Please where and who predicted the great depression ? 🤣

@IknowNothing83 Your very name answers your bullshit statement

@TimePreference_ Tariffs are a tax on third world slave labor. You want that cheap stuff, made by violating the rights of others, pay the tax. It would be better if we just didn't do business with those countries, but that's not possible at the moment. So tariffs will have to do.

tariffs don't protect domestic industry they protect inefficient producers at the expense of consumers every tariff is a tax on your purchasing power to subsidize businesses that can't compete

'the market failed' is politician-speak for 'our interventions created unintended consequences we'd rather not take responsibility for' free markets don't fail. distorted markets do