Tom Jones

@weatherwilly It’s easy to give a forecast for the interior northern mid Atlantic if you don’t define your terms. What states are they? PA? DE? Is Phila interior or coastal?

The target period is now in range on the ensembles. 7 day temperature means seen below starting middle of next week. The strat warm lag and MJO wave dying are the main culprits. Flakes will be flying again in New Eng and interior northern Mid Atl 2nd half March. Enjoy the warmup.

@MeteoMark I like the way Mark’s map carved out a nice protective hole for Philadelphia. I couldn’t find any model that did that, so I assume Mark has family members there who are under his care.

Thanks for the vote of confidence John! #NEPA #wxtwitter #wxX

@WxRiskGrains I predict DT will be replaced by AI within a year.

ABOUT THE FEB 14-15 EAST COAST WINTER STORM TALK/ CONCERN ... its bullshit There seems to be this General belief especially with weather hobbyists / weenies that simply because the AI models come out faster they have more value or the more reliable. Let's be clear about this = the GFS AI ands European AI and the other AI models such as Google deepmind Aurora Pangu etc are still single deterministic models just like the regular operational GFS and the operational European. They do not have more value simply because they come out of the computers faster. When you have a GFS AI or European AI model solution which has no Ensemble support whatsoever .... that goes against even the own AI ensembles …. that is not supported by the hemispheric pattern .... that is in direct contrast to the strong MJO predicted to move into phase 3 by mid February which is the ultimate kiss of death… see the images.. you should treat these wonderful looking AI model Solutions with a great deal of skepticism. #wxtwitter #vawx #mdwx #wvwx #dcwx #pawx #phlwx #rvawx #ncwx #rduwx #njwx #mass #ctwx #nywx #nycwx #ohwx #indwx #kywx #tnwx

@BigJoeBastardi "People nationwide depend on NOAA for free, accurate forecasts, severe weather alerts, and emergency information. Purging the government of scientists, experts, and career civil servants and slashing fundamental programs will cost lives."

I have also stated many times, that the young mets today applauding all the models and focusing on this are building the roads they are riding to their demise as what is the need unless there is some unique skill. If you have that you can beat the model and add value. Then again for those that do, its a great chance because if models are right 95% of the time, it gives you 15 days you can beat them and stand out for people that need you

@Piorko519Matt @BigJoeBastardi “This loss of talent at NOAA is going to set the agency back years and compromise the integrity of missions that directly support human health and safety, economic prosperity and national security,”

@BigJoeBastardi Every dept in Gov is filled with waste and abuse and some forms of fraud. Trimming here is no different. We are all being asked to do more with less, and the Gov should not be the exception.

NOAA has 12k employees. A few hundred ( no one knows for sure) have been laid off. How is that a mass firing? No one knows the exact details yet, which of course is something the people doing the firing should have explained before hand to prevent the kind of speculation ( including me, because I am being asked) that is running rampant. So you mean to tell me that the elimination of less than 3% of the workforce is going to decimate the country? Of course, all the facts will not come out until the leftist media blowing this all up have had their horse out of the barn. So if this less than 3% is so vital, does that mean the other 97% is less vital?

@BigJoeBastardi "Project 2025 also suggested commercializing the National Weather Service, one of the agency’s most well-known arms, which provides weather forecasts and lifesaving warnings. Among the authors of the policy blueprint are many people who now hold senior roles"in Trump World.

@BigJoeBastardi "The firings on Thursday are expected to be just the first wave of departures. Several hundred more staff members are expected to leave on Friday....On top of that, the Trump administration is expected to cancel contracts of workers affiliated with NOAA,"

@BigJoeBastardi New york Times: "The firings are expected to cost more than 800 people their jobs, out of a total of about 13,000 staff members." Hey Joe, I know the NYT is not a MAGA newspaper, but it wouldn't hurt you to read it once in a while.

@BigJoeBastardi So you're saying that it's not possible for a storm that develops on the gulf coast to come up the east coast and that's your excuse???

Great call at 500mb from Feb 11 but we dont live at 500mb. Storm develops on gulf coast, further south, so AI looks like it will win. I expected more surface reflection deeper into the cold air with that analog pattern. Will have to keep this as an example of what can go wrong Post on Weatherbell on matter this morning

@beaver_jef10926 @BigJoeBastardi On the large scale, forecast services were exceptional. Forecasters provided NWS field offices with an early "heads up" concerning the potential development of a low pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico.

@Tom416 @BigJoeBastardi Even the National weather service said the Blizzard of 1996 was going out to sea. But not Joe Bastardi he said it was coming north west and it did Big Time!

This is really pretty interesting. The better the upper air pattern goes with the negatives coming right through the slot, the further out the model pushes the storm. Well at the very least if it’s right I’ll get to see something that I can’t recall seeing. That kind of negative should produce an I 95 blizzard DC to Boston So the call from February 11 remains if I have to change it I’ll change it on Tuesday because until this feature comes out of the Rockies I’ve said too many of these flip flop around. If you’re standing on the ledge don’t jump off yet

@beaver_jef10926 @BigJoeBastardi On the large scale, forecast services were exceptional. Forecasters at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC),, provided NWS field offices with an early "heads up" concerning the potential development of a low pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico.

@beaver_jef10926 @BigJoeBastardi "NWS warnings and forecasts provided information with the types of lead times that enabled all levels of government, local decision makers, and businesses to make timely life and property decisions both before and during the event..."

@Tom416 @BigJoeBastardi Yes The Blizzard of 1996!

@BigJoeBastardi Bustardi is still pushing for his blizzard with an old snow map, although other forecasters have now given up on the blizzard and the models are agreeing to no blizzard. Just coincidence he is still hyping blizzard in the same paragraph he is pushing for radio listeners?

Models have shifted southeast since this, but I think should shift back west. This was eye candy, but the threat of the coastal MA blizzard we outlined Feb 11 still very much alive and kicking. So please join us with your questions on Wise Guys of Weather Special guest the Vicar of the Vortex @judah47

@AccuRayno The weather guy who was pushing the big I-95 snow storm, and who warned us to be wary of the "windshield wiper effect," caves in, big time, to the very thing he warned us about.

Pretty good agreement for a mid-Atlantic snowstorm, nearly a foot of snow from Richmond to D.C. across Deleware & southern NJ.Close shave from Philadelphia to NY (with some snow 1-3/3-6) and perhaps 1-2 toward BOS. Upper Low placement suggest this.More later.

@burgwx Tomer, what do have against Phila?

If you live in the snow-starved corridor of NYC-Albany-Boston, you may have noticed today’s guidance abruptly shifting towards a moderate snowstorm Sunday night. Let’s use the new PolarWx tools to diagnose these trends:

Grok - The X post is associated with a trend where residents in Southern California are on alert due to a social media prediction of a major earthquake, questioning whether it's science or speculation. - Scientific consensus suggests that predicting the exact time of earthquakes is currently beyond our capabilities, which adds context to the skepticism surrounding the prediction. - Southern California has several active faults like the Rose Canyon, San Jacinto, and Elsinore, increasing the region's seismic risk, which might explain the focus on this area for the prediction.

@weatherwilly New England? So you're saying Philadelphia will be missing out on another storm. We'll see. Hope you're wrong.

The next period to watch is going to be in about 10 days were New England can see a shot. You have a ridge over Alaska still seeding cold air but a little bit of a flex in the southeast ridge which would help drive a storm more North

@fox5dc All the idiots who are criticizing obviously never read the whole article. Neither the headlines nor the accompanying article states that a blizzard will be happening. The article clearly says it is too early to determine the final outcome.

@BigJoeBastardi eenews.net/articles/trump…

The reason for NOAA and NASA pushing climate change is money. They need money They are noble entities who hierarchy is biased toward funding and the funding is all with pushing man-made climate change. They are still great agencies, but are straying off their mission for funding