Torkel Danielsson

🇸🇪Swedish Air Force QRA scrambled over the Baltic Sea yesterday to identify and monitor 🇷🇺 Russian Su-35 operating in international airspace. Mission executed in support of NATO Air Policing 24/7/365.

Hi! I wrote the meta-analysis. This take is wrong. Taiwan's GDP per capita is ~$40k. A 4% present-value benefit yields ~1% TFR increase. TFR is 0.87, so needs to rise 141% to hit 2.1. That means benefit present value must equal 500-600% of GDP per capita. A $12-$15k,000/yr child allowance would do that. At full implementation, this would cost Taiwan 9-22% of GDP depending on dynamic growth effects. That's a lot, but it's not impossible or absurd. Taiwan's government is 18% of GDP right now; this would indeed be a 50-100% expansion in government spending, but if the alternative is "The end of the Taiwanese people and the collapse of Taiwanese sovereignty" idk man sometimes you just pay the price on the price tag. And MANY countries have government spending at 30-50% of GDP. Taiwan could absolutely spend its way back to replacement. Especially since each child born in Taiwan generates absolutely massive production and tax revenues for the Taiwanese economy and government, the long run balance is probably not even that bad in terms of debt/GDP. But more to the point: there's NEVER going to be a silver bullet. If you're looking for ONE policy to close the gap between current and replacement fertility, you will NEVER find one. There IS NO SUCH POLICY. Rather, successful pronatalism will involve dozens of different policy changes each of which will nudge fertility a bit. Taiwan could get to replacement fertility for a lot less than 20% of GDP by doing more modest financial incentives plus a bunch of other stuff including various cultural interventions. A massive cash grant could close the gap, but it would be wiser to do a mix of cash and a bunch of other policies that tackle various leverage points in the fertility process.

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