
Often times, risk assets sell off, then bounce as major conflicts start. If a rally for Bitcoin does materialize, it will likely yield a lower high in March, just like it did in 2022. Bear markets tend to take a while to play out.
Jay
692 posts


Often times, risk assets sell off, then bounce as major conflicts start. If a rally for Bitcoin does materialize, it will likely yield a lower high in March, just like it did in 2022. Bear markets tend to take a while to play out.

1) Who do you think The US’s 🇺🇸 war in Iran 🇮🇷 is actually against??? 2) Given that… What do you see as the US’s 🇺🇸 #1 & #2 greatest sources of leverage in this Grand War ⚔️??? 3) Are those 2 sources of leverage somehow connected 🪢 to 1 another??? 4) Given that, why might the Strait of Hormuz 🚢 be the most critical front of this Grand War⚔️??? 5) Finally… Why might that mean that this conflict likely won’t (actually) be "very complete, pretty much," for many years??? 🤷♂️ #🥐RUMBS. . . . . . . . . . .



🚨 CTAs are sitting on the most extreme short equity position in 3 months and it's a coil ready to snap. > SPX CTA position: −0.35 (was +0.68 one month ago) > 0th percentile of 3M range · z-score −2.12 > $90.6B in forced selling still in pipeline > Every global equity index futures at 0–3rd pctile simultaneously: > SPX, NQ, Russell, MSCI World, DAX, Nikkei, Eurostoxx, FTSE > The stagflation trade is maxed out: > Cotton 98th pctile · Brent 95th · Diesel 94th · Wheat 92nd > Full curve short: 2Y, 10Y, 30Y all at 0–2nd pctile > All flipped from long → short in 30 days The mean-reversion coil is set. Any bullish catalyst, a signal from the Fed, a ceasefire, the Straight of Hormuz flowing again, triggers a violent CTA short-covering across equities, bonds, and commodities simultaneously. Analyzed by Radon radon.run



