Adam Kingsbury

@Hall_Curls44 It’s really cool man - been fun to follow!

@adska There is a large volatility at the start as all I can input is my own idea of relative strength of each team. As more data comes in like player % and LSD shots I can make better predictions, such as who will win hammer with certain probability and more accurate team strengths.

Hey everyone! Guess who's back for the #WWCC2021, 2 draws done with some interesting results but I've finally inputted the Women's schedule and ran my first 1million simulations of the event for your first set of projected rankings. Gonna do one per day until later in the week!

Brilliant. “There is a deep sense of human fellowship in this picture of reality – in the idea that, in our utter exposure to forces beyond our control, we might all be in the same boat, clinging on for our lives, adrift on the storm-tossed ocean of luck.” theguardian.com/news/2021/apr/…

@wog1819 @mattydunstone28 Just waiting for a disintegration mid throw!

One game during the Brier this year right before puck drop @mattydunstone28 broke his (very old) shoe lace. Like any good coach, I gave him my mine off my foot (also old). It looks like he’s still wearing it as of tonight. Time for a change boss?

@C_hodgy @mattydunstone28 Nike Roche did.

@adska @mattydunstone28 Who gave you a shoelace?

@CurlingMath @mattydunstone28 @curling @grandslamcurl @Guertez There are people who are far more capable, interested, and willing than I to dive into every one of these questions. Open source only strengthens knowledge base, and we are not meeting the standard as a sport globally.

@adska @mattydunstone28 @curling @grandslamcurl @Guertez

Can appreciate why @mattydunstone28 tossed his last away in 7th to get hammer in last end. Bubble games have seen teams down 1 win plenty but...small sample size. 60% 1 up without hammer in last end has held up at all rules/levels and every way we’ve studied this sport. 1/3

@CurlingMath @mattydunstone28 @curling @grandslamcurl @Guertez Perhaps teams may realize their WP in a given situation - I strongly doubt that increased aggression is solely a result of this. But even the claim that aggression has increased in past decade isn’t verifiable to public unless you’re “in the know”.

@adska @mattydunstone28 @curling @grandslamcurl @Guertez Data is only a guide but I disagree saying it's a fan enjoyment tool at best. Why is the game more aggressive in past decade? Perhaps because teams realize their WP in a given situation. Now how this analysis all mashes up in a player's noggin...that's your area of expertise.🙂

@CurlingMath @mattydunstone28 @curling @grandslamcurl @Guertez ... decisions are made instinctually that are multi-variate, complex, and entirely dependent on the moment at hand. Bin sizes are always n = 1 in present and predictive value of past scoreboard data has much less value than is being presented and popularized.

On the call in 5th end to draw without last rock, risking a deuce, @mattydunstone28 likely needs to make that draw about 80% for it to be worth the risk. Suspect his % make is even higher in that spot. @curling @grandslamcurl @Guertez 3/3

@CurlingMath @mattydunstone28 @curling @grandslamcurl @Guertez The most useful two graphs as a general framework to teach people scoreboard management 101 are published in your book. Historical Win Expectancies in men’s and women’s games. These numbers have the potential to serve as a useful Bayesian prior but...

@CurlingMath @mattydunstone28 @curling @grandslamcurl @Guertez Kevin, as the only person I know of to at least publish something accessible on this topic, I appreciate your persepective on this. The term “analytics” is tossed around and talked about so much as if there is predictive value written in stone.

@erscimia @Devin_Heroux The math doesn’t matter. At all.

@Devin_Heroux There probably are teams that really do win more often down one with. But I'm also sure that a lot of the teams that *think* they do are basing that on small sample sizes and/or conformation bias.

wow. Dunstone JUST missed it. McEwen wins. Up one without hammer coming home wins it. #cbccurl

... the precautionary principle is a form of pessimism that “seeks to ward off disaster by avoiding everything not known to be safe.” The opposite of the precautionary principle is [...]We don’t know enough, and we should always try to learn more. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

@C_hodgy @RockheadsC It’s a conscious choice 100%. And what’s fascinating is their personal accounts retweet bell let’s talk, and promote mental health treatment advocacy and awareness It would be a curious case study in behaviour if it wasn’t about the people I care deeply about.

@adska @RockheadsC Yup. Taking time and effort to spit this venom. Hopefully they read this and take a second to think about why it's worth it to post like this.

Armchair coaches strike again.

Not only applicable to baseball ⬇️⬇️⬇️ LOVE this sentiment and perspective.

Congrats Hideki and Shota what a man!!! Total respect 🏆🏆 #Masterschampion #themasters

“The measure of good public-health messaging is not merely whether experts would deem an article factually correct but also whether a layperson takes away the correct message.” theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…