darkpoolvault
26 posts

darkpoolvault
@darkpoolvault
Realtime entries and exits from the Dark Pool Vault. Not financial advice
参加日 Nisan 2026
22 フォロー中15 フォロワー

I like $RDDT going into earnings, around $149. Technically the stock is in a good spot.
The setup is interesting.
Valuation: 25x Forward PE with a 0.6PEG. Revenue grew 69% in 2025 to $2.2B. Q1 guidance was 52-54% growth.
AI angle is real: Reddit isn't just a social media company — it's quietly becoming a data licensing powerhouse. Its corpus of human conversation is irreplaceable for training LLMs.
Partnerships with major AI companies are already generating revenue, and that stream is just beginning.
Beat streak: Reddit has beaten estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters — including last quarter's monster $1.24 EPS vs. $0.94 expected. I am expecting $META type of numbers without capex overhang.
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@SelfMadeMastery $RDDT and $LUMN today. Check out my page for DD
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@CNBC $MSFT will be fine long term. The takeaway from hyperscaler earnings is the spend! Follow the money
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Jim Cramer is far from impressed with Microsoft earnings. Here's why cnbc.com/2026/04/30/jim…
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Alphabet pops, Meta tanks as each company raises capex spend cnbc.com/2026/04/30/alp…
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Amazon posted a blowout quarter. Why the Street says this is only the start of the stock's strong run cnbc.com/2026/04/30/ama…
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Buying $AMZN at ~$270 (~$2.9T market cap) implies you are getting:
• $20B custom chip business (worth ~$200B)
• $150B ads business growing 23% (worth ~$750B)
• $416B e-commerce business growing 12% (worth ~$1T)
• $129B AWS business growing 28% with 38% operating margins (worth ~$2T)
Add it up and Amazon looks closer to a ~$4T business which would imply ~$365-$370 per share.

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@jimcramer Biggest takeaway is spend!!! Everyone knows these companies will be great long term. Follow where their money is going.
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@Mr_Derivatives Mag7 names are for buying and holding. Look at physical/hardware AI infrastructure names that are benefitting from the massive spend.
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@DudeWhoInvests It will be ok long term. Short term the names receiving the cap-ex like physical/hardware AI providers are the beneficiaries.
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@InvestFreedom05 No. Too much exposure to software, while there are opportunities in software it’s too early to tell. Focus on physical/hardware layer that benefits from disruption.
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@unusual_whales The physical layer of AI is booming yet still in the early innings! Check my page for the next trade
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$LUMN — The hidden pipes powering the AI economy.
Another big opportunity in the physical layer of AI is the fiber moving the data. $LUMN is a name you can buy today around 8.70 that has the potential to generate a 50%+ return over the next 6-12 months.
$AMZN AWS — First mover: Lumen was named the FIRST network provider to collaborate with AWS on AWS Interconnect – last mile. Enterprises can now establish private, high-speed connections to AWS in minutes vs. weeks — across Lumen's 340,000+ route miles of metro and last-mile fiber.
$Anthropic — Selected to expand their fiber network across all of North America. Purpose-built high-capacity infrastructure to power AI research and model training. Part of Lumen's nearly $13B in total Private Connectivity Fabric (PCF) contracts.
$ORCL Oracle — OCI (cloud infrastructure) guided +84% YoY growth last quarter, well above estimates. Lumen is a named Oracle FastConnect partner — the private network on-ramp enterprises use to connect directly to OCI. As Oracle's AI cloud scales, Lumen's pipes carry the traffic.
The scorecard:
→ $13B in PCF contracts (Microsoft, Meta, Google Cloud, Anthropic + more)
→ 47M fiber miles by 2028 | 58M by 2031
→ $4.8B debt eliminated via AT&T deal
→ NaaS customers +29% YoY
Why this matters now: Earnings drop May 5. With hyperscaler demand accelerating and PCF backlog building, this could be the quarter that forces the street to re-rate the story.
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Did you know $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang said $CAT could be one of the largest robotics companies in the world?
Most think mega cap AI lives in the Mag 7, $CAT is quietly transitioning from industrial giant to foundational robotics/power player — and the numbers prove it.
Caterpillar $CAT Q1 2026 Earnings Highlights:
• Sales & Revenues: $17.4B → +22% YoY (from $14.2B)
Driven by higher volume (+$2.3B) + favorable pricing (+$426M)
• EPS: $5.47 (GAAP, +30% YoY from $4.20); adj. EPS $5.54 (from $4.25). Strong beat.
• Operating Profit: $3.085B (+20% YoY).
Adj. op. margin: 18.0% (solid despite tariff/manufacturing drags).
• Segment Standouts:
• Construction Industries: Sales +38% to $7.16B; profit +50%.
• Power & Energy: Sales +22% to $7.03B; profit +13%.
• Record Backlog: $63B (+79% YoY, +$11.5B QoQ) — massive visibility ahead.
$5.7B returned to shareholders ($5B buybacks + dividends).
If you don’t have exposure to $CAT yet, I’d wait for a potential pullback toward the $740 area before adding. $CAT needs to be the bedrock of your robotics exposure.
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My biggest takeaway from tonight’s hyperscaler earnings? The AI infrastructure buildout is accelerating.
This reinforces our thesis that there’s a generation of small- and mid-cap companies in the early innings of this cycle with enormous upside potential.
You need exposure to the physical layer of AI — power, materials, logistics, components, connectors, compute, connectivity, etc.
I’ll be posting the names we’re buying.
Here’s what the hyperscalers committed to tonight:
• $META: Raised 2026 capex to $125–145B, up from $115–135B — citing higher component costs and data center buildout
• $GOOGL: Raised 2026 capex to ~$190B, with the CFO signaling spend will “significantly increase” again in 2027. Pichai said they’re compute constrained in the near term
• $AMZN: Reaffirmed ~$200B for 2026. AWS grew 28% — fastest in 15 quarters — with operating income crushing the top of guidance. The ROI story is showing up
• $MSFT: Q3 capex came in at $31.9B, below the $34.9B estimate — the one name where spend came in light. No official full-year number, but annualizing Q3 puts them at ~$125–130B
Combined, the four hyperscalers are now tracking toward ~$725B in 2026 capex.
The picks-and-shovels trade is very much alive.
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