Stacker

the more concentrated and precise your decisions are, the fewer times you strike and the higher your strike rate. you trust yourself more and build the patience and conviction you need. when its time to make a decision, youre prepared with the conviction and confidence to see it through. the more decisions you make, the less room you have for error, you reach decision fatigue which impacts your future performance negatively. recency bias, relative thinking, and psychological punishment will cripple you. you won’t be prepared to make the right decisions at the right time.

@Quanterty hmm is it worth it?

You cannot get neck in the front seat of your "10 bitcoins"

@HsakaTrades thank you hsaka

Merry Christmas ya filthy animals.

self-limiting beliefs are self-fulfilling, what if there is no limit for you, it's just you who holds yourself back, you trapped yourself in the reality you deserve.

@smileycapital actually i remember you buying sol at $21-$22 and i was pissed cause you didnt tell me

class of 2024-2025 visibly upset I'm not a gigantic bull anymore where were you for 3 years that I was bullish? January 2023 at 19k to earlier this month at 110k 1.5k to 4.9k on ETH 25 to 250 on SOL all public with receipts you're not witty or contrarian you're late.

@smileycapital thats my quant smiley

unfortunately due to twitter suspension in Jan-March of 2023 I couldn't post the picco entry upon reclaim, you can thank the leftist woke agenda that was still present at that time [and my unhinged self] unsuspended on March 15th, we come with receipts; x.com/smileycapital/…

the same principle that allowed me to buy 19k in the depths of bear market, January 2023, whilst 99% of CT was doomposting you into poverty is now the same principle that allows me to join this rally compression post-depreciation -> deviation under compression -> reclaim higher

@gainzy222 cz should have paid @HsakaTrades to dalai lama the chart

The lineup of people cz chose to shill not only aster but binance is actually hilarious This shit didn’t matter in prior cycles, he had even worse retards shilling that already left this space But this cycle somehow people care and jeff just absolutely bludgeoned cz Amazing

just like life, the markets are forgiving anyone who refuses to lose will eventually win, it's about how you navigate through the storm. Hard times create strong men right? what kind of man are you?

@LomahCrypto i remember you saying taking profit is a muscle you have to train. timeless

This might cement my Unc status but... Taking profit (and paying yourself out) is a skill. Like most skills, the more you do it, the better you're going to be at it. Always pay yourself for your work.

@billyoptionsii what makes a winner is a man whos able to navigate through the storm. Winners pivot, winners take control.

@smileycapital i remember it like it was yesterday, forever vindicated for striking at the right time

as someone that publicly went all-in at 20k; 2.5 years later - BTC is hitting 120k; I do think anything above 120k is the start of a slow distribution process that can last for quarters - sure we can go higher, but BTC is beginning to show signs of slight exhaustion already on HTF, which will only increase as the year ends the good news is - barring any catastrophic event, ETH/BTC + ALTS/BTC look primed [see early 2021] - the BTC distribution should, in theory, give us monumental moves in Ethereum and altcoins ladies and gentlemen - welcome to the lategame.

what is this cycle's metagame? why is it this way? what's it all for? ok, so you have probably noticed BTC's lack of follow through after all of its major breakouts in the last year. its been very un-bitcoin like, because traditionally any huge multi month breakout causes a chain reaction trending impulse that far exceeds most people's expectations. instead, bitcoin goes up like 25% and then gets put in suspended animation while altcoins progressively catch up. obviously it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize this is happening. it's arguably been a feature of this market dating back as far as 2021 during the second half of the bull market. the thing i think that could surprise people is that this will keep going on for literally the entirety of this bull market, including in and around the halving too. if you think of the game theory a bit, it makes sense why this extreme altcoin rotation environment is the way it is. liquidity isn't as easy to come by as it was when rates were 0 and money was printed in record quantities. bitcoin is a behemoth that takes up half of the entire market cap and thus it needs a shit ton of liquidity injection to get even small returns from. it's always a bad ROI for short to medium term. so why not repeatedly crush bitcoin intraday volatility so badly that nobody else in the market wants to bother gambling on bitcoin either? that way there is far more money floating around to FOMO into any number of altcoins that have had huge candles painted on them. there are literally thousands of altcoins that can be rinse repeated for some kind of catch-up play while BTC is put into a vice grip. also worth mentioning is that any liquidity that is hungry to position into BTC is liquidity that will likely be lost for a very long time, unable to contribute to the gains of anything else even after BTC moves a good amount. BTC is purchased with the intent to HODL long term far more than any other coin, for obvious reasons. so it is incumbent on those who wish to extract max value from this market to make BTC feel like a terrible home for your money AT ALL TIMES. it is also incumbent on them to prevent bitcoin from retesting horizontal levels that the market believes should be tested. a market that remains completely gaslit by a bitcoin that paradoxically seems bullish in frontrunning every level but bearish by how weak it moves afterward is a market that will eventually give up on BTC altogether. you could see after the 25k -> 35k move how shocked the market was. and what they did they do after? immediately crank up the leverage on altcoins. this is exactly the behavior that is being sought after by those maneuvering bitcoin. think of how technically inefficient it is for things to work like they normally do in crypto cycles, where bitcoin goes parabolic for like 2-4 months while literally no other coin in the market does anything at all. money being trapped in one place that long is terrible for those intent on squeezing every last drop of value you can from market. normally the big money rotations would only occur after bitcoin's parabola breaks and the money trickles down after... but because SO much money trickles at once, it becomes chaotic and unpredictable where exactly that money goes. retail has the opportunity to profit a lot more in situations like this, which is not what is desired by those moving the market. this mass rotation all at once is what most normies and retail participants still think will happen. they are not prepared for the bombardment of feelings of opportunity cost they are gonna have by overexposing to any one major coin. it will be extremely psychologically torturing and many will eventually break to try and chase the huge pumps they keep seeing elsewhere in the market. so yeah, the metagame this time is very likely going to be a perpetual round of very carefully controlled musical chairs that simply goes harder and harder as we get deeper and deeper into the bull market. the "optimal" way to profit will be to spot rotations early and position for them for only as long as the twap machine is clearly on... but this will only be the optimal strategy for very sharp traders that spot the hot narrative super well. otherwise, you will be better off sticking to your very few concentrated bets for the entire duration of the bull market. just remember tho, you gonna be tested with huge green candles on literally hundreds of different shitcoins in a very very predatory manner. you gotta know what your role is and stick to that the best you can. one last thing worth mentioning is that this shift the market has had from BTC denominated perps and BTC denominated altcoin pairs towards stablecoin (i.e. fiat denominated) everything, combined with the manipulation of BTC away from being a violently trending asset so that altcoin rotations can be maximized, has put the crypto market into a very precarious position in the long run. it is no longer possible to "accidentally" accumulate bitcoin out of need to do something else with it. bears in 2018-2019 needed to buy BTC just to gamble on shorts. shitcoiners that intended on fading BTC used to have to buy BTC to trade it for those shitcoins. nobody has to do that anymore. the only people who ever buy BTC are those doing so with explicit intent on gaining/storing value on that BTC. and remember, the lower timeframe traders and medium timeframe investors are being conditioned VERY HARD to see bitcoin as a terrible vehicle to gain value with. the result of all of this is that the only people buying tons and tons of BTC now are basically the huge timeframe oriented entities that accumulate probably completely indiscriminately of market conditions. the hoards of altcoin traders, even the most successful ones, are in very risky position if they never trade any of their gains back into bitcoin. 99% of these alts are only worth anything because its game theoretically advantageous to prop up thousands of empty husks to pump and dump and trap retail liquidity with. the more that happens, the easier it becomes to continue scooping up bitcoin uncontested. but i think most people devoted to crypto understand that the fiat economy is on extremely borrowed time and that it's getting riskier and riskier having your net worth locked up in anything that is not a scarce objectively valued real world asset. bitcoin is really the only thing within crypto that definitively falls within this basket. im not a btc maxi or anything, this is just the truth. the altcoin minigame shit is all bread and circuses in the grand scheme. that is not to say you shouldn't take advantage of it while it remains a very profitable opportunity, but just remember that it is a very flashy form of distraction in the end. there's only so much bitcoin, and when it eventually manages to be definitively accepted as a 6 digit USD value asset, it pretty much becomes full lindy and all the citadel memes are probably unironically coming true. there is no guarantee for when this all happens, so keep that in mind. the clock is always ticking.

You are your own king maker and king breaker, nobody else.

Your life is about making decisions you can live with, decisions that make you proud of yourself. There's a season to sow seeds, and a season to reap during the harvest. The market will remain, are you confident in yourself to make big decisions?

when you have faith, you can move mountains you get what you want out of life, its a magnet, your conviction becomes gravitational its attractive, compelling, it can even pull people in

Don't try to suppress or change your personality, Everyone has their time to shine if they wait their turn. If you're the best at being yourself, your winners will win big.

@solana @jnwng @cobie's view of a supercycle is crypto payments being integrated into everyday life

Mind = blown Solana pay coming to a POS near you ft. @jnwng

building intuition, pattern recognition, learning from your own mistakes and others mistakes, and skin in the game is irreplaceable and it's a lifelong journey. The time to sacrifice is when the bubble is quickly inflating and speculation is rampant. Most of the gains is made in short periods at a time, if you're hungry enough and want to make the most of it, make sacrifices during that period

I’ve sacrificed my weekends before 12-16 hours a day staring at the screen, for 1.5yrs, EVERY day nuked my mental/physical health, and ruined my social life still not sure if it was worth it I’m all for “sacrifice your weekends” just don’t lose yourself in the process.

If you’re already in this space, you are where you need to be. Theres no exciting alpha on how to make it, this free-market filled with opportunities just points a mirror at you and rewards your journey of personal growth. Find out what kind of person you are and synergize. Fade your weaknesses and be honest with yourself, compete with yourself and focus on what is in your control. Color your thinking and water that conviction of yours. Stay focused in your own lane and flourish.

alpha is timeless and fundamental. edge doesn't stick forever, its temporary and it decays