Thierry Laduguie

This has led to a significant drop in oil prices. However there is no guarantee oil prices will continue to pullback, that is the main risk for markets. The focus today is on US CPI to be released at 1.30pm. Expectations are for steady or moderated inflation, but any hotter-than-expected print could raise concerns about delayed Fed rate cuts (or even pauses), pressuring stocks further. Lower inflation could support risk assets. But the trend is down, rallies are counter trend $FTSE #FTSE $SPX #nasdaq

Markets have shown resilience in recent days with some recovery attempts, but remain sensitive to Middle East developments, including reports of Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. military responses, and fluctuating oil prices (which have pulled back from earlier spikes but remain elevated due to supply disruption fears). There is a clear correlation between the oil price and the stock market. Markets are reacting positively to comments from Donald Trump suggesting the US-Israel-Iran conflict could end "very soon."

Bond yields matter, higher yields pressure stocks by increasing borrowing costs for companies and consumers (e.g., mortgages, corporate debt), making fixed-income alternatives more attractive vs. equities and raising discount rates for future earnings (hurting growth/tech stocks especially). Higher interest costs crowd out other spending priorities (e.g., defense, infrastructure, or social programs) and add to fiscal strain, especially with ongoing deficits projected at 6-7% of GDP or more. Analysts note that sustained yields around current or higher levels could add trillions more to cumulative interest over a decade compared to lower-rate scenarios $FTSE $SPX #nasdaq

The primary driver for the stock market remains the U.S.-Iran war developments, stoking inflation worries from higher energy costs (oil is up again today, up 2%) and broader uncertainty. Markets have whipsawed but partially recovered on hopes of de-escalation or limited long-term impact (historical conflicts often lead to temporary dips rather than sustained bear markets). Similarly US 10Y yield continues to climb, driven by expectations of higher inflation. This increase contrasts with the typical safe-haven behaviour during geopolitical crises, where investors flock to Treasuries, driving bond prices up and yields down. Instead, the dominant force has been inflation fears triggered by surging oil prices

@rationalaussie or do you think this is just a social media thing? People who are not on social media don't worry about AI

The amount of stuff happening right now in AI is truly fucked. Every feed refresh it's another 'wtf'. We are in the Singularity.

Despite the rally in the S&P 500, there is no indication that this rally is the start of a larger rally . This rally is still viewed as counter trend as long as the decline resumes today at the open. So far the S&P 500 is still below the 55-period moving average, something you would expect in a downtrend. But the pattern is not impulsive, which is a warning. Not impulsive because the bounces are large, normally in a downtrend rallies are small and the waves don’t overlap. If the rally to 6917 was the end of the counter trend bounce, the decline will resume today. If the decline don’t resume and the index rallies above 6917, the odds of a larger rally in progress will increase $SPX #NASDAQ

AMD surged notably on a major Meta AI chip deal (6-gigawatt GPU partnership), boosting sentiment in semiconductors and AI hardware. NVIDIA reports earnings after the bell today. Markets are bracing for significant volatility, as this report is seen as a referendum on the health of the global AI supercycle

The stock market is riding a wave of renewed optimism following a strong rebound in the previous session. The narrative has shifted from "AI disruption fears" back to "AI growth potential," significantly boosting tech and semiconductor stocks. Concerns that AI would instantly replace existing software companies (which caused a sharp dip on Monday) have cooled. News from Anthropic regarding its "Claude Code" tool and positive analyst commentary from Wedbush have helped stabilize sentiment in the software sector

@WazzCrypto If Claude can do it anybody using Claude can do it so the company is doomed without its employees

It's crazy that consulting firms like Accenture could just fire all their 784,000 employees right now and replace them with a single $200 Claude Max subscription but they choose not to do it

@DeryaTR_ What is the point of all that? soon million of people will do the same thing and nothing will change

6 a.m. morning routine: Coffee, then launch Codex & Claude Code, get the agents started working on 10 new projects, then discuss & brainstorm with the AI council (GPT-5.2, Grok 4.20, Gemini Pro 3.1, Opus 4.6) about the next 10 projects to start by the afternoon. ☺️ Crazy times!🤯

Inflation remains elevated, the trade war is on, war is the Middle East is looming, AI is starting to disrupt businesses. All of this is negative for the stock market, the question is, do we get a final move up or not before the stock market turns down? $FTSE #FTSE $SPX #NASDAQ

The threat of war in the Middle East is still present, this continues to support oil prices. In other news the US PCE price index came in hotter than expected but markets rallied as investors focussed on the Supreme court ruling. This marked the sharpest monthly increase since February 2025 and signalled a stall or reversal in the disinflation trend, with core services remaining sticky

US futures are edging slightly lower this morning, reversing some of Friday’s late-session gains. The primary driver is a weekend announcement from President Trump to raise blanket global tariffs to 15% (up from 10%) after the US Supreme Court blocked his previous "reciprocal" tariff framework on Friday. The Supreme Court ruling provided short-term relief on Friday, but subsequent policy statements have created volatility

@JensHonack Like me

This man predicts the future. He was early in Uber, X, Notion, and called the death of 9-to-5 jobs a decade ago. Now, the impact of AI reveals his philosophy in every part of our lives. Here's what he says is coming next: 🧵

An attack on Iran is becoming high probability judging by the recent comments from president Trump. Furthermore the focus today is on two major economic reports that could influence inflation. US GDP is expected to come in around 3.0%, a deceleration from Q3's 4.4%. This report is particularly significant as it accounts for the impact of the record 43-day government shutdown earlier this year. PCE Price Index is the Fed’s inflation gauge. Investors are looking for signs that inflation is sustainably heading toward the 2% target after the Fed held rates steady in January

A surge in oil prices triggered by an outbreak of war would generally be expected to push inflation higher, which is typically negative for stocks overall. This would be challenging for Japan and the carry trade as Japanese yields / rates would rise. The classic yen carry trade involves borrowing cheaply in yen (low BOJ rates) to invest in higher-yielding assets abroad (US stocks). Rising Japanese yields/rates narrow the interest rate differential with the US, forces leveraged positions to cover (sell US assets, buy yen to repay loans). If the oil price continues to rally US stocks will decline

Major indices ended lower yesterday amid escalating US-Iran tensions (including oil price surges to six-month highs), a selloff in financials/private equity stocks, and ongoing concerns over AI investment risks and spending. Rising US-Iran tensions (e.g., Trump's deadline comments on nuclear talks) are weighing on risk sentiment, boosting oil but pressuring stocks

The economy is expected to grow stronger (AI productivity), in a strong economy, businesses and households see better real-world investment opportunities (e.g., expanding factories, hiring, consumer spending, or higher-yielding projects). This draws money out of financial assets (stocks, bonds) toward productive uses in the real economy. Liquidity evaporates. When growth accelerates, it often pushes inflation higher or risks overheating. Central banks raise interest rates to cool things down and prevent excessive inflation. This is a negative for the stock market. Traders await the release of the FOMC minutes (expected at 7pm), for clues on interest rate thinking and policy path $SPX #FOMC

The S&P 500 broke below a key support level yesterday, the momentum is weak, a signal that the trend may have turned down earlier than anticipated. The catalyst is AI disruption fears and accelerating economic growth. Tech and software stocks saw pressure, with investors weighing long-term competitive threats from AI. This has contributed to choppy action and rotation away from some prior leaders

Did you ask Wood what happens in the next two years? Wood is talking about deflation in the future (in two or three years). AI reduces costs once it’s deployed at scale. But getting to scale requires enormous capital, materials, and energy. This phase is inflationary, we are in the midst of the phase. AI adoption will be delayed by lack of energy and infrastructure

I spoke with @CathieDWood about why deflation is the bigger macro risk, how AI is becoming a powerful deflationary force, and why productivity gains are being misunderstood by markets and policymakers. We also explore bitcoin’s role as a hedge against both inflation and deflation, the rise of counterparty risk, and how converging technologies like AI, robotics, and blockchain are reshaping the global economy. Enjoy! YouTube: youtu.be/Hxwr64A6vOg?si… Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/5NxOac… Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wil… TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Intro 0:20 - Why deflation is the real macro risk 3:32 - Navigating the AI boom & U.S. growth 12:22 - Would deflation hurt bitcoin? 14:08 - Elon Musk, Tesla, & convergence 16:37 - Key risks investors should watch 18:45 - How ARK approaches innovation investing